Hurricanes Sally and Zeta tore through Alabama nearly five years ago, toppling trees, flooding homes, and leaving behind a staggering recovery effort that leaned heavily on federal aid.

But now local leaders fear the cavalry may not come if disaster strikes this year, despite Alabama’s longtime support of President Donald Trump.

“I remain steadfastly committed to supporting hurricane recovery efforts and ensuring that federal resources and tax dollars are allocated to American citizens in need,” Trump said in a statement Monday, kicking off National Hurricane Preparedness Week, and emphasizing a push for more state and local resources during hurricane responses.

Emergency managers in Alabama’s two coastal counties—Baldwin and Mobile—say they haven’t been told of any specific changes in disaster aid policy. Still, reports from Arkansas of red tape struggles with Trump’s administration, and his calls to dismantle FEMA altogether, raise red flags as another active hurricane season looms, starting June 1.

“We’re going to continue to do what we do and coordinate with our partners and do the right thing,” said Baldwin County Emergency Management Agency Director Tom Tyler, following a day-long tropical weather seminar Friday in Robertsdale.

“We’ll never do or not do something because we think there will be a FEMA reimbursement involved,” Tyler added. “If it’s the right thing to do, this county commission is committed to serving the people of Baldwin County. If we get reimbursed afterward, that is great. If not, we still have things we need to accomplish.”

Disaster aid

Tyler acknowledges that without the federal government’s support, budgets could be stretched in coastal Alabama.

“To not have that reimbursement would be substantial,” he said.

Baldwin County Commissioner Charles “Skip” Gruber took it one step further, saying the high costs of recovery from a story is something that local budgets cannot absorb.

“Sally was $84 million,” he said. “We cannot fund it by ourselves.”

Mobile County EMA Director Mike Evans said it’s too early to speculate over the fate of federal disaster aid.

“Until we’re notified of changes, we will follow all necessary protocols to secure the assistance our residents may need when it may be needed,” he said. “We intend to perform our role to the best of our ability and focus on capturing the information Alabama EMA and FEMA require and doing our part to secure reimbursements and aid.”

FEMA played a huge role after Hurricane Sally in Baldwin County, reimbursing the county for over $54 million in expenses. That included paying nearly $22 million to finance the removal of a massive amount of vegetative debris – approximately 2 million cubic yards, which would fill the entire Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, and then some.

Federal agencies also assisted in the county in other ways. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, allocated over $40 million in Community Development Block Grants for disaster recovery.

Jeff Schlegelmilch, associate professor of professional practice at Columbia Climate School at Columbia University, said the biggest impact to any federal rollback of post-hurricane relief will come from longer-term recovery efforts.

He said that state governments have long grown dependent on federal programs for rebuilding, and that pulling back the role of FEMA without a plan on what to do next will “create its own kind of disaster.”

“Without a clear transition, reducing FEMA‘s role very rapidly will likely severely hinder recovery and create even wider disparities between who is able to get back on their feet and who is not,” Schlegelmilch said. “There is a need for reform, and to better incentivize states to invest in preparedness and to handle more disasters on their own. But there will still be a need for a federal role, and transition period towards whatever model things shift toward.”

Arkansas concerns

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, a former White House press secretary under Trump and a close ally to him during the campaign, has struggled to get federal disaster aid to her state following a tornado outbreak in March.

FEMA denied a request for emergency aid already, which Sanders appealed last month. She has written on social media that Trump has personally promised his support to her. She has said that she remains in close contact with the administration in hopes of securing relief.

Arkansas, much like Alabama, has overwhelmingly backed Trump in previous elections.

Alabama State Sen. Chris Elliott, R-Josephine, and who represents the Gulf Coast in Baldwin County, said he believes the Trump administration will come through if a tropical event causes damage.

“The president is very favorable to the state of Alabama,” Elliott said. “I would expect he would continue to after a storm.”

Elliott said the biggest concern for South Alabama is government reimbursement from expenses incurred during debris cleanup. After that, he said, the coastal region tends “to rely on private insurance” to handle claims.

Schlegelmilch said the situation in Arkansas should send “a strong signal to other states” that initial request for disaster aid was denied.

“That being said, we should wait and see if they are able to get the declaration on appeal, and what the pattern of declarations and denials are as there are more disasters across the country and more data on these declarations,” he said.

Federal cuts

Trump has already issued an executive order requesting a review of how FEMA has managed past disasters, and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has made statements suggesting that her agency will dismantle FEMA altogether.

FEMA was created in 1979 and became a part of the Department of Homeland Security in 2003.

The agency has already lost 200 probationary employees, who were laid off in February, and fears are elevated over even longer wait times for financial assistance following powerful storms.

It’s not just FEMA that is on the chopping block. The National Weather Service, which operates under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), has lost approximately 550 employees since the beginning of the year. The job losses represent a 10% drop in its staffing levels.

The proposed budget released by the White House also calls for cuts to NOAA by nearly 30%, and would eliminate the agency’s research functions for weather.

The funding cuts and loss of employees prompted five living former National Weather Service leaders to release a letter on Friday saying the impact of the staffing and program cuts could likely lead to deaths.

“Our worst nightmare is that weather forecast offices will be so understaffed that there will be needless loss of life,” reads the letter written by the five directors over the past 37 years. “We know that’s a nightmare shared by those on the forecasting front lines – and by the people who depend on their efforts.”

Jason Baeman, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Mobile, said the focus of his office is to stick to a core mission of saving lives and property.

“Everything else is out of my control,” Baeman said, adding he doesn’t know all of the details of what is being proposed for cuts. “We know we have a dedicated team serving our local communities.”

Volunteer efforts

The focus on local responses and volunteerism was a highlight during the seminar in Robertsdale.

Gruber praised the work being done by the Baldwin County Volunteer Organizations Active in Disaster (VOAD), which provides on-the-ground services such as food and supply deliveries for areas in need after a disaster.

“It makes it a lot easier,” he said.

Deann Servos, executive director of Prodisee Pantry in Spanish Fort and a past chair of the Baldwin County VOAD, said the group of volunteers come from churches, civic groups, and other organizations. They assist in opening and operating mini-shelters, including a warming shelter during the January snowstorm.

“We made sure we got some food and blankets to people in need,” Servos said. “It’s done with volunteers who are willing to help.”

Servos said cuts to FEMA, NOAA or any other agency that assists during a disaster is not a major concern to her. She said the focus is to get a ground group assembled and ready to respond if a major storm strikes.

“We are the caring and compassionate folks who live here, and we want to our community to recover in the best way possible,” Servos said.