It seems like fall just arrived, but winter is not that far away.

Meteorological winter starts in 44 days on Dec. 1.

NOAA issued its winter weather outlook this week, and many Alabamians always wonder, will we get any snow this year?

While you can never say “never,” the odds are not in our favor, according to the outlook.

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a decent probability of warmer-than-average temperatures and below-average precipitation — including the frozen kind — during meteorological winter, which is December through the end of February.

The temperature outlook is forecasting a 50-60 percent probability that southern Alabama will have warmer-than-average temperatures over the winter months.

Central and most of north Alabama have slightly lower but still decent odds of a warmer winter — 40 to 50 percent, according to the outlook. (The temperature outlook is at the top of this post.)

That doesn’t mean there won’t be cold days, however.

Then there’s the precipitation outlook, which also doesn’t look great for snow lovers.

The outlook is forecasting a 40 to 50 percent probability of below-average precipitation for south Alabama and a 33-40 percent probability for central and some of north Alabama. Only the northernmost tier of the state is favored to have equal chances of above-average or below-average precipitation, according to the outlook.

That doesn’t mean no snow is a certainty, although it is already fairly rare in Alabama. “The outlook does not project seasonal snowfall accumulations as snow forecasts are generally not predictable more than a week in advance,” NOAA said.

The reason for this warmer and drier winter forecast? It’s weighted heavily on the emergence of La Nina.

According to NOAA, “La Nina conditions are expected to develop later this fall and typically lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, leaving the southern tier of the country warmer and drier.”

Each La Nina is different, but here’s a look at some of the more-common weather impacts during the winter:

La Nina is not active yet, however. The Climate Prediction Center anticipates it to emerge anytime from now through November and last through the first quarter of 2025. A “La Nina watch” is currently in effect.

What about the rest of the United States this winter?

“This winter NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for the entire northern tier of the continental U.S., particularly in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes region, along with northern and western Alaska. Meanwhile, drier-than-average conditions are expected from the Four Corners region of the Southwest to the Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic states.”

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center updates the three-month outlook monthly. The next update is scheduled for Nov. 21.