Alabama football is poised to be good in 2025, and that’s supported by both qualitative analysis and quantitative data.

First, the numbers. ESPN’s Football Power Index released this week ranked Alabama third in the country behind only Texas and Georgia. The rating index expects Alabama to win 9.6 games with a 66.2% chance to make the College Football Playoff. Predictive models don’t guarantee an outcome, but it’s close to the most objective option at this point in the preseason.

Then, look to the quality of Alabama’s roster and coaching staff. The Crimson Tide brought back most of its starters on defense, led by defensive lineman LT Overton, a potential first-round NFL Draft pick. The offense features one of the best receivers in the country in Ryan Williams as well as a potential first-round offensive tackle in Kadyn Proctor. The receiving corps, anchored by Williams, could be among the nation’s top three.

Alabama also managed to keep most of its defensive backfield together, which includes blue-chip talent such as cornerbacks Domani Jackson and Zabien Brown. Both were former five-star prospects and full-time starters in 2024. Meanwhile, the coaching staff added offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, considered one of the best offensive coordinators in college football prior to a one-year stint in the NFL in 2024.

Ultimately, Alabama in 2025 appears to be in good shape.

However, one player will likely decide the difference between a good season and a great season — the quarterback.

Right now, that seems to be Ty Simpson. Grubb indicated as much at the end of spring practices. Simpson still has to win the job outright and then hold onto it, but he remains the frontrunner.

Alabama has the talent to take down most teams on its schedule, as long as the quarterback avoids critical mistakes. But to beat the teams such as Georgia, LSU and anyone in the College Football Playoff, Simpson will have to not only avoid bad plays but also make winning ones.

If Simpson lands somewhere in the neighborhood of mediocre, Alabama still has the ability to be a good team, but likely won’t meet the lofty expectations consistently set in Tuscaloosa. However, if Simpson’s one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC, the Crimson Tide has the pieces around him to make a deep run into the postseason and possibly win another national championship. That’s no small weight placed on one player’s shoulders, but such is the nature of the quarterback position.

The key elements for winning are there. It’s up to the guy playing quarterback to unlock it all.

Nick Kelly is an Alabama beat writer for Follow him on X and the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on X and Instagram.