The comments below Andy Staples’ Sept. 14 Instagram post were brutal.

Atop the graphic, the veteran national college football writer was smiling confidently above the list of eight games he picked against the spread. The grin stood in perfect contrast to the predictions below because when that Saturday action wrapped, all eight missed.

Zero and eight.

“Andy!!!!!!,” one user, kinder than others, wrote. “You missed them ALL!!”

Staples, previously of Sports Illustrated and The Athletic now at On3, is far from alone.

The first month-plus of the 2023 college football season humbled more than a few career college football observers who are challenged weekly to pick winners and losers.

Through six weeks of the regular season, eight of AL.com’s nine participating college football writers have lost more than they’ve won picking games against the point spread — some more than others.

Three years ago, eight of the 10 participating in our just-for-fun contest were at least breaking even at this point in the season.

Six of the seven writers on the CBS Sports panel have failed to win the majority of their picks with a low of 42-61-4.

So, seriously, what’s the deal?

Is the 2023 season that unpredictable or are we that bad?

A little of both is probably the best explanation but there are some notable theories on how a few different forces came together to make this season unique.

“I think people are struggling because of their perception of teams,” said Carl Johnson, the director at the Beau Rivage Bet MGM sports book in Biloxi “The good teams are perceived to be better than what they are and the bad teams are perceived to be worse than what they are. There’s not that big of a gap.”

That’s interesting. Why’s the ravine slimming?

While everyone interviewed for this piece didn’t agree on everything, the transfer portal’s impact was mentioned by everyone. That includes Jeff Benson, the director of operations at Circa Sports in Las Vegas, who said it’s not any more difficult setting point spreads this season.

Early-season lines came with more of a challenge, he said, since there were teams with unknown rosters but setting the line this year is “the same” as last year.

Staples, who also mentioned the transfer portal’s power, added another point for parity.

“Also, I think the COVID year has something to do with it because the teams at the top, they’ve had those same NFL players leave after three and four years so they’re kind of the same,” Staples said. “But the teams who don’t put as many players in the NFL, they have all these fifth- and sixth-year guys. So you have 23-year-olds playing against 19-year-olds and I think that has a lot to do with why it feels more equal this year than ever before.”

That paired with the public’s tendency to bet on the big names can spell trouble for everyone but the house.

“I can tell you, financially,” he said, “we’re having a better year than we were having last year.”

Before Saturday, Georgia was 0-4-1 against the spread before covering Saturday against Kentucky — another interesting study in point-spread math. The Bulldogs were four-score favorites in three of its first four games but were two scores short of covering against Tennessee-Martin and UAB.

The unpredictability of Kentucky entering Saturday’s trip to Athens was a roller coaster for those setting the lines. Before the Wildcats routed Florida, 33-14, a week earlier, they were a 23.5-point underdog. The number quickly fell to 14.5 in the wake of Kentucky’s whipping of the Gators and Georgia barely escaping Auburn. Of course, the Bulldogs snapped back to form with a 51-13 win with the final spreads in the 14.5-point range.

Johnson from Bet MGM noted bettors tend to go with the brand name to cover rather than taking the points and the underdog. He used the NFL from a few years ago as an example when the Jets, Browns and Tampa Bay were historically bad. A bettor could take them to lose every week and make a profit.

“Our egos won’t allow us to do that,” he said. “We want to bet the good teams.”

Indeed.

“That’s what people don’t realize, the huge advantage the sports book has, the bettors play the big-name recognition teams and hope they cover. We end up with the bad teams and we don’t lose during the long run.”

Last year, underdogs covered 53.0% of the time, according to ESPN Stats and Information.

Johnson said he’s seeing more underdogs hit this year than in the past.

Perhaps no team is a more fascinating study of all the uniquely 2023 elements than Colorado. A team that brought in 50-plus transfers to hockey-line-change a team that went 1-11 last year entered the season opener a 21-point underdog at returning CFP finalist TCU. When Coach Prime and the Buffs walked away a 45-42 winner, Colorado went from a 7.5-point Week 2 home underdog to a 3-point favorite over Nebraska.

“The Colorado stuff is interesting,” Benson of Circa Sports said. “Obviously when you have 60 transfers and you win as a 21-point underdog, how much does the number move in Week 2? I think that was a fun and challenging exercise. There were a lot of different opinions on that.”

A week later, Colorado was a 23-point favorite over Colorado State coming to town.

But in terms of ego-bruising pick percentages from college football writers, Benson said he didn’t see any statistical anomalies that were notable. He chalked it up to small sample sizes and variance.

That’s good news for AL.com’s Matt Cohen. The first-year beat writer covering Auburn started the season 6-24 through three weeks of picking against the spread. Even that 20% hit rate didn’t move Benson.

“I think over a 30-game sample, there are plenty of times you 6-24 … I mean, it’s not the most organic thing that ever happened,” Benson said, “but it definitely happens over the course of time.”

Does Cohen feel vindicated?

“Not really,” he said. “I still feel like a loser.”

His performance, however, improved. Only one of the next three weeks ended with a losing record for the Indiana grad who is no longer in last place with a 21-39 record. That honor belongs to sports editor Andrew Hammond’s 20-40 record where two of every three picks were losers.

“Don’t feel bad because there are people who do that for a living that are doing the same thing,” Johnson at BetMGM said. “It’s difficult. You’re almost, when you get to that point, you’re almost better off if you say ‘I like this team, but I’m writing down that team.”

Fade yourself, he said, essentially.

Through six weeks, sports reporter Mark Inabinett is the only one with a winning record at 32-28. He had the other real outlier this season after going a remarkable 10-0 in Week 1 against the spread.

In our defense, we’re not picking games in the same way a gambler would. The AL.com panel is assigned to pick games of local significance with a few big national games. A real gambler would pick and choose which games to play strategically as some in the AL.com pool would be strict do-not-touch games in the real world.

Johnson at BetMGM offers a few pieces of sage advice for those playing in the real world and not our hypothetical realm.

First, point spreads are built for public perception.

Second, you’re statistically better off with the underdog but also take a look at who is doing what before making the call.

“I would look at the betting splits and I would look for high dollars with low ticket count,” Johnson said. “Let’s say Georgia is getting 79% of the money but only 16% of the tickets. That signifies sharp money. We move the line based on sharp money. A square guy could walk in here and bet $200,000 on the Steelers and we’re not going to move the line. If an educated guy comes in with history with us and bets $5,000 on the same game and we’d move the number.”

Also, remember for every rule, there’s an exception.

The top four teams in the AP poll are a combined 8-11-3 against the spread this year, according to TeamRankings.com. No. 5 Oklahoma is 6-0.

After a rough opening month, the writers’ picks saw an upswing last week. Five of the nine on AL.com’s panel at least broke even while only one at CBS Sports had a losing record.

Those first few weeks humbled even the most confident of veteran writers.

“Man,” Staples of On3 said, “it’s been really hard this year.”

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.