For months, the prognosticators labeled Alabama’s newly drawn 2nd Congressional district as a Democratic district, removing it from so-called “toss up” categories by noting that President Joe Biden would have won it by 12 percentage points in 2020.

But Tuesday’s primary turnout illustrated that it’s a whole new ballgame. Democrats cast only 161 more votes than Republicans during the primary contest within the counties that consist of the newly drawn district. And Republicans, with two candidates from Montgomery and amid consistent low turnout in Mobile, now believe they got a shot to pull an upset.

“I think what that shows us is this district is in play for Republicans,” said Angi Horn, a Montgomery-based political strategist.

John Wahl, chairman of the Alabama Republican Party, said the turnout was competitive, illustrating “how close general election results will be.”

“We know the federal court openly designated this district to lean Democrat; however, we believe the Republican Party better represents the people of District 2 and the values they believe in,” Wahl said.

Several factors from Tuesday’s primary illustrate the competitiveness of the district, according to political observers:

• Mobile County continues to struggle with turnout. With the largest number of voters in the 2nd district, the county had 36,964 voters show up, or 18.6% of their voting-age population who were eligible to cast a ballot in the 2nd district congressional race. Montgomery County, by comparison, had 38,592 voters show up Tuesday – more than 1,600 voters than Mobile County despite having 21,000 fewer voting age residents living within the 2nd district. More than 6,500 Montgomery County Democrats showed up to cast a ballot over Republicans whereas the reverse was true in Mobile County where more than 2,100 Republicans cast a primary ballot.
• The district is purple, and the two candidates on the GOP side could be presented as moderate choices – former State Sen. Dick Brewbaker, who has participated in Democratic-leaning candidate forums – and political novice Caroleen Dobson who, despite strong conservative messaging ahead of the primary, has been loosely compared to current Republican U.S. Sen. Katie Britt, according to political observers. Jon Gray, a political strategist in Mobile, said he believed a “female Republican candidate” has the potential to appeal to moderate voters.
• The Alabama State Democratic Party has a recent history of internal strife and a lack of resources to support a candidate in a fierce campaign. Those divisions resurfaced on Monday when, less than 24 hours before the primary, longtime Alabama Democratic Conference (ADC) head Joe Reed blasted the eventual two frontrunners in the primary – Shomari Figures, an ex-aide to former President Barack Obama and Alabama State Rep. Anthony Daniels, the House Minority Leader – for receiving support from groups with Republican ties.

“You had 11 Democrats, the ADC, the New South Coalition, Shomari Figures, Napoleon Bracy, two state senators, four to five elected officials all running … that is the height of local campaigning and these people turned out 57,000 voters? That’s it?” Gray said. “What makes anyone think they will do better than that in a general election in a state where Donald Trump is a foregone conclusion (to win the general election), and you do not have a viable Democratic Party apparatus?”

Get out the vote

The Alabama Democratic Party did not respond to a request for comment on the turnout, but Mobile County Democratic Party Chairman Ben Harris said he is anticipating a “significant boost” in Mobile County in November with the presidential election on the ballot.

The county had an overall 20.7% turnout rate on Tuesday, despite the entire county’s voting age population eligible to cast a ballot in either the 2nd district congressional race or the 1st congressional Republican primary pitting two incumbent congressman – Jerry Carl of Mobile and Barry Moore of Enterprise. Moore, with strong support and higher turnout from the Wiregrass area, defeated Carl, who had 73% support in Mobile County.

Harris said the county’s Democratic Party will be focused on a get-out-the-vote effort ahead of November.

“We think (the 2nd district) gives us a really unique and remarkable opportunity to do that while encouraging Democratic voters,” he said. “We certainly have in Mobile County, something to vote for in November and in the runoff in April. We are excited about that, and we do think we will see a significant boost in turnout.”

The Democratic candidates are also confident that the voters will show up as the campaign progresses, and after the 18-candidate field has been whittled down to four following Tuesday’s primary.

The primary runoffs in the 2nd district are set for April 16.

Daniels said that Democrats outpaced Republicans in turnout – albeit slightly – and believes there is already enthusiasm.

“From the recent IVF rulings by the Alabama Supreme Court to ongoing Republican attempts to restrict reproductive choice, Medicaid expansion, and public-school funding, Democratic voters in the 2nd district are energized by the frustration of being overlooked,” he said in a statement to AL.com.

The Figures campaign is planning for its grass-roots approach so voters can get to better know the candidate who is the son of longtime state Sen. Vivian Figures and the late Michael Figures, who was also a state senator.

“We are confident voters will come out again to support a candidate who will fight to lower health care costs, improve access to quality education, and make this economy work for all of Alabama,” said Lindsey McAdory, campaign manager for Figures.

Mobile’s troubles

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But the frustration with Mobile County’s paltry turnout continues to loom over the congressional races, and the increasing likelihood that one of the state’s largest regions might not be represented in Congress by a coastal Alabama resident.

State Rep. Sam Jones, D-Mobile – who served as the City of Mobile’s first Black mayor from 2005-2013 – said he has witnessed what he says is a troubling trend of a lack of interest among the county and city’s voters. Mobile County, two years ago in the midterm election primary featuring races for governor and the U.S. Senate, turned out only 17.4% of its voters. That was the lowest among the state’s largest counties. The subsequent primary runoff that year drew an abysmal 8.4% turnout in Mobile County.

“There are a number of voters who have not been going to the polls,” Jones said. “Usually what we see are most of our older voters and people over 45, are going more than the younger voters. I don’t know what the issue is, but that seems to be the case.”

Quin Hillyer, a former Republican candidate for Congress who is a Mobile-based political writer and columnist for The Washington Examiner, said he believes Mobile voters “hurt themselves badly, time and again,” by not turning out to vote.

Hillyer has been critical of the federal courts not keeping Mobile County whole through redistricting. Much of the City of Mobile is in the 2nd district, while a sizable chunk of Mobile County is in the highly conservative 1st district. Before redistricting, Mobile and Baldwin counties were together within the 1st district.

A three-judge panel approved the new congressional map in October that created a second congressional district in which Black voters have an opportunity to select a candidate of their choice. The 7th district is a majority Black, and the 2nd district’s voting age population is 47.6% Black-45% white.

The federal court’s activities came after the U.S. Supreme Court in a 5-4 vote last June determined that Alabama’s Republican-drawn congressional map was in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

“Geography definitely matters, which is why the Legislature, and the courts should have kept Mobile County whole, as it always had been before,” Hillyer said. “Yet whether it matters more than governing philosophy or personal character, or other considerations is for candidates to persuade voters to consider, and for voters to decide.”

Republican quandaries

David Mowery, with the Brewbaker campaign, said they were pleased with the candidate’s performance in winning two of three media markets while staying “within a few thousand votes of the leader in Mobile,” referring to Figures. Brewbaker had the second highest vote total of the 2nd district candidates on Tuesday, trailing Figures by 2,200 votes.

He said that Brewbakers’ base in Montgomery “will ultimately prove impenetrable.”

The Dobson campaign could not be reached for comment.

Gray, the Mobile-based strategist, said the success for either party could come down to whether Republicans living in Mobile County. He said the GOP will be posed with an interesting scenario – the prospects of voting for their only homegrown candidate that gives them local congressional representation – but who would be a Democrat — or backing a Republican from Montgomery.

Figures, who finished first in the Democratic primary with 43.5% of the vote, is the sole remaining Mobile County resident in the contest. Daniels, from Huntsville, has touted his past support of backing efforts to divert more BP oil spill settlement money to coastal Alabama. Daniels placed second with 22.4% of the vote.

“The chamber of commerce crowd in Mobile, who do they vote for?” Gray said. “Do they vote for the local guy, Figures, who they know will stand up for the I-10 bridge project, and who is the son of a state senator who was a city council member in the (Mike) Dow administration … at the risk of flipping Congress to the Democrats and undoing Donald Trump’s plans, or do you stick with a Republican ballot by putting someone in there from mid-Alabama who is not focused on South Alabama issues at all?” said Gray. “That question became more important with the loss of Jerry Carl.”

Bradley Byrne, president & CEO With the Mobile Chamber, said he’s know Figures “since he was a little boy” and considers him a “fine young man who comes from a storied Mobile family in politics” and who knows “this area very well.”

“I’ve talked with him, and he assured me if congressman from this area, he’ll take care of Mobile,” said Byrne, a former Republican member of Congress from 2014-2021. “I believe him. That doesn’t mean the other (candidates) won’t (support Mobile as well). Shomari has a closer connection here.”

Gray also said for Republicans, they might want to change their messaging. He said the constant haranguing over redistricting, and the creation of a Democratic-leaning district, is creating a “self-fulfilling prophecy” that could scare away outside political interests who otherwise would be willing to invest in a competitive seat.

Wahl said he believes the large percentage of minorities in the congressional district “don’t like the leftist policies” coming out of the Biden Administration and could support a Republican.

“We are going to work hard to earn their trust and let them know the Republican Party is committed to defending their rights and freedoms, securing economic opportunity, and helping keep families safe,” he said.

Gray said that past modeling on the new District 2, while showing Democrats winning a majority of the time, was based on older voter data including vote totals from six years ago during the 2018 governor’s election when Democratic Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox was on the ballot.

“For all the people saying a Republican can’t win here, it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy and who will invest money in that district?” Gray said. “The Democrats will fund it. Where else in the U.S. will they find a good pick up (in the U.S. House)? But does the Republican Congressional Committee just forgo the district and give it up to the Democrats? I don’t know what they will do. But people with money will ask, ‘Why would I get involved in this race if a Republican can’t win?’ If you can’t raise money, you can’t win. And a Republican has an incredibly strong shot at winning.”