Twas a week before Christmas, and all through the state, few candidates are stirring or prepping for an organized debate.

But political observers vow the Christmas season calm will soon give way to a post-holiday sprint for the 21 candidates vying for their party’s nomination in Alabama’s newly drawn congressional district 2 seat.

So far, at least publicly, it’s been silent nights and days.

Related content: These are the 21 candidates running for Alabama’s redrawn Congressional District 2

Approximately 80 days remain for the candidates to get their names known ahead of the March 5 primary. The campaigning covers a lot of miles through rural and urban Alabama within a large congressional district stretching from Mobile through the Black Belt and into Montgomery.

Time is ticking for the candidates to get out there and get known, and it will be difficult to gauge who is doing the heavy spending until late next month. The next batch of campaign finance information is not due to the Federal Election Commission until Jan. 31.

Few opportunities to meet candidates are also scheduled, whether it’s a debate, forum, or a “meet-and-greet” sponsored by a political party of community group.

One event is taking place at 3 p.m. Sunday at the Bullock County Courthouse, hosted by the NAACP. But no other public events are planned or have been announced to the media. A proposed candidates forum in Prichard was initially scheduled for Tuesday, but it has been pushed back to January.

“This is a big deal,” said Dr. James Poe, who is coordinating the Democratic meet-and-greet in Union Springs. “You never know who the people will go out and vote for.”

Neither political party has scheduled a forum or debate ahead of the primary. The only pre-primary debate scheduled is between the two Republican candidates vying for the newly-drawn Alabama Congressional District 1 seat, which leans heavily Republican.

The congressional districts were redrawn after a federal court ruled Alabama’s congressional map was in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The boundaries for the new District 2 have only been known since late September, and the redrawn map is viewed as favorable to Democrats. Cook Political Report labels it as a “leans Democrat” district, a dramatic reversal for a district that was once given a +34 advantage for Republicans.

“There are a number of very qualified candidates, in my opinion, who are vying for the seat,” said Alabama State Rep. Sam Jones, D-Mobile, the city’s former mayor. “Some are known in some areas of the state. Some are known in others. Some have accomplishments statewide.”

He added, “You have so many different people in the race, it’s difficult to (focus in) on anyone. That’s the barrier (candidates) will have to deal with.”

Forums? Debates?

The calendar is also not helpful with the start of the campaign season during the holidays, followed up by Mardi Gras in Mobile, and then the state legislative session beginning in early February. Six of the candidates are current members of the Alabama Legislature.

“It’s tough to raise money during the holidays and the timing is difficult,” said former Democratic U.S. Senator Doug Jones. “It’s tough to get people’s attention. People are focused on the holidays, for sure. And it will be that way until after the first of the year, by and large.”

Observers believe the holiday lull will give way to a campaign blitz unseen in an Alabama congressional race since Doug Jones won a special election to the U.S. Senate six years ago. In that race, 18 candidates headed into the initial primary. Of the 21 candidates vying for the District 2 congressional seat, 13 are Democrats and eight are Republican.

“For a long time, including the primary when I ran in 2017, it was also kind of a mish mash of forums and people from all over the state (hosting events),” Jones said. “What you’re seeing is not unusual. I would not expect the Democratic Party to get that involved in a major forum for the candidates. If they do, that’s great. But for the party, where do you hold it? In Montgomery? In the middle of the district? In Mobile? To some extent, (the party) relies on civic groups to come up with the forums.”

John Wahl, chairman of the Alabama State GOP, said a forum ahead of the April 16 primary runoff is “on the radar.” But he said there are still questions on whether the Republican Party wants to get involved with a similar event before March 5.

Like Jones, Wahl said the issue has to do with logistics.

“There is a question on whether to do something in the primary or hold it off until the runoff or if it’s held in Montgomery or Mobile or both,” he said.

Tom Miro, executive director with the Alabama Democratic Party, said the state party is working on some events, but had no new announcements last week.

A forum, featuring some of the Democratic candidates, took place last week in Monroeville. Miro said he was unaware of it.

“We’re looking at doing something toward the end of January, at the very least, in Montgomery,” Miro said. “It’s an open primary and it will be very competitive. We are excited there are Democrats across the state who find this particular district so interesting to them and are willing to get out there.”

Name recognition

Miro said the Democratic hopefuls are getting websites established and tapping into social media to get their names known. He said the post-pandemic environment, candidates could host virtual events more than in previous years.

Democrats along with the Republican hopefuls, are scheduled for sit-down interviews with the Alabama Farmers’ Federation’s political action committee.

David Hughes, associate professor in the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at Auburn University at Montgomery, said the “name of the game” for candidates – given the large size of the field – is “name recognition” coupled with “establishing a viable base of support.

Hughes said for the candidates, attending every event is crucially important. But he believes the only viable candidates headed into the primary season are the ones “where individuals already possess name recognition and an ability to raise/spend campaign money.”

“That list among those filed to run isn’t nearly as long as the total filed,” said Hughes.

Zac McCrary, a partner at Impact Research and a Democratic pollster, said the objective for candidates will be finding a way to “make more of a niche appeal” to a small section of the electorate. In such a crowded field, McCrary said, a candidate may only need 15 to 20% of the vote to advance to a runoff election. The runoff is April 18.

“Candidates are always looking for ways to distinguish themselves from the field,” McCrary said. “In some cases that could be finding a different ideological lane of going further to the left than most of the rest of the field. Sometimes that could be finding something unique in your bio that is different from the rest of the candidates.”

He added, “A Democratic candidate could try to consolidate a very specific geographic area or appeal to an outside-of-the-box issue to finish in the top-two in the primary and then worry about expanding his or her appeal into the runoff.”

Doug Jones, the former senator, said candidates should not be resting right now. Now is the time, he said, for them to be seen at church events, and contacting civic organizations about making an appearance. Showing up to city council or county commission meetings also doesn’t hurt, he said.

“Anywhere there are public officials and potentially the press and interested citizens is a place to go to meet people and hopefully get (noticed),” Jones said.

In Mobile, a few of the candidates have shown up during news conferences and community gatherings involving the family of Jawan Dallas – who died after an encounter with police in July, sparking outrage directed at the police department. James Averhart, a Mobile resident who ran previously for Congress in District 1, has attended at least two of the news conferences. A few candidates were spotted at a recent community gathering about policing in Mobile, and Senator Merika Coleman of Birmingham, asked a question on how lawmakers can go about improving body cam transparency.

“I think people should also never forget the tried-and-true strategy of pounding the streets and getting people you know to knock on the doors,” Jones said.