Who is going to win today’s NASCAR Geico 500 at Talladega Superspeedway?

You mean pick a winner from the most unpredictable track in the entire sport? Yeah, right. To put all your eggs in one basket is tough, but after covering NASCAR longer than some of these drivers have been alive, I’ll do my best to make a few educated guesses, which are for entertainment purposes only.

Also entertainment is not defined as holding them over my head when they blow up in my face later today. Well, maybe that’s entertainment for you but not me.

Ryan Blaney

• Odds: 11-1
• Talladega Superspeedway history: Three wins in 19 starts with an average finish of 14.5.
• The skinny: OK, so, Forrest Gump could have made this educated guess. Blaney is the defending series champion and he won here in the fall after finishing second in his two previous Talladega races. While this Ford Mustang Darkhorse isn’t the same as what he was driving in past years (not a good thing), it was strong in Atlanta. For what its worth, his teammate Joey Logano has better odds to win (9-1).

William Byron

• Odds: 12-1
• Talladega Superspeedway history: No wins in 12 starts with an average finish of 12.5.
• The skinny: Forrest Gump pick No. 2. While he doesn’t have a win here, he did win at Daytona in the season opener. He also finished second to Blaney in the fall, so, he’s knocking on the door. Hendrick Motorsports is out of their mind this season with six wins in nine races with Byron logging three of those.

Denny Hamlin

• Odds: 12-1
• Talladega Superspeedway history: Two wins in 36 starts with an average finish of 14.8.
• The skinny: Don’t ask me why – and it probably wouldn’t do any good to ask him, either – but lately, Hamlin has run significantly better in Talladega Superspeedway fall races. Since 2020, his average finish in the fall is 4.0; In the spring, its 17.75. And, yes, I know this isn’t fall, but I’ve got a gut feeling the nip in the air may trick him into running better. Also, the two wins already this season sure don’t hurt.

Austin Cindric

• Odds: 30-1
• Talladega Superspeedway history: One top five in four starts with an average finish 15.3.
• The skinny: I know it’s kind of – OK, really – stupid to pick Cindric and leave Brad Keselowski on the table with 10-1, but this is Talladega. And every so often Talladega is going to Talladega and pull a winner out of left field. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (3 career wins) won here. David Ragan (2 career wins), too. Heck, the very first Talladega Superspeedway winner, Richard Brickhouse, never won another Cup Series race. Cindric already won at Daytona and he was fifth in the fall, so, it’s not that big of a stretch, regardless of the oddsmakers’ opinion.