Republican incumbent congressmen Jerry Carl and Barry Moore will compete in a primary election next year that offers a storyline so rare, that Alabama historians need go back more than 61 years ago to find a comparison.

In 1962, the entire nine-member U.S. House delegation competed in a statewide, at-large contest for eight congressional seats in a free-for-all contest while a redistricting plan remained in limbo. Frank Boykin, the lone southwest Alabama congressmen at the time, was the odd man out in finishing 9th place.

“Statistically, it’s extremely rare to have an incumbent versus incumbent,” said Jess Brown, a retired political science professor at Athens State University and a longtime observer of Alabama state politics and its history. “You just don’t have the circumstances that creates this situation.”

But just like the state’s “9/8 Election” in 1962, the Moore-Carl tussle for the redrawn and extremely conservative Alabama 1st congressional district, is the result of a court-ordered redistricting plan.

Moore, a Republican who serves the 2nd congressional district – which was redrawn and now favors a Democratic candidate – announced Monday he will compete against Carl, the Republican 1st congressional district congressmen.

The battle of the incumbents is for the right to serve another term in the newly redrawn 1st district that is among the most conservative in the country. Already a reliably Republican district, the new 1st district is a whopping +28 advantage for Republicans, tied for the sixth most GOP-leaning congressional district in the country.

Baldwin and Mobile counties have the district’s largest population bases. But much of Mobile is now in the 2nd congressional district, leaving right-leaning Baldwin County as the dominant population base. The two counties are joined with seven rural and heavily conservative counties to its east extending into the Wiregrass. Dothan, in Houston County, is the district’s largest city with a population slightly more than 71,000 residents.

“Across the state of Alabama, this will be the race to watch,” said Alabama State GOP chairman John Wahl. “It’s a clash of the titans.”

The race is likely to capture the national spotlight ahead of the March 5, 2024, primary election. Thus far, no one else has signed up to run in the 1st congressional district before the Nov. 10 deadline, meaning a runoff election is unlikely.

“Moore is the more conservative of the two by various metrics, not that Carl is liberal,” said Steven Taylor, professor of political sciences at Troy University. “Carl, however, has the advantage of a home base of votes that is larger than Moore’s. I would expect some money to come into the race, and especially outside voices like (Florida Congressman Matt) Gaetz coming to visit.”

There are several key factors that political observers are worth following during the campaign:

National attention

Moore scores higher than Carl when comparing the two’s scorecards by conservative groups like the Heritage Action and CPAC. Moore is also a member of the right-wing Freedom Caucus, was a vocal backer of controversial Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan for House Speaker, and could have the support of the big money from the conservative heavyweight, Club for Growth.

The Club is not disclosing who they plan to support in the contest. But the group loomed large over the Alabama primaries in 2020, endorsing Moore in his contest against Republican Jeff Coleman. The Club also backed Carl’s opponent, former state Senator Bill Hightower, in the 1st district race.

“They are 100 percent in this race,” said Jon Gray, a Mobile-based GOP political strategist. “They backed Barry Moore the last time and were opposed to Jerry Carl. They still don’t think Jerry is a conservative. And the debate will be whether Jerry has done enough in four years (to prove he’s conservative enough). It will come down to this: Is Jerry Carl the conservative he told you he was four years ago?”

A spokesman for the Club told AL.com recently that they will not divulge their interest in the race.

But Club’s sometimes over-the-top advertisement during past primary and general elections in Alabama rubbed some voters the wrong way, according to other political observers.

“They are not that secretive and don’t have a great success rate in Alabama,” said Angi Horn, a GOP strategist based in Montgomery. “Congressman Moore has had success (with the Club for Growth’s endorsement). But in Congressman Carl, they put in a ton of resources against him, and he won handily.”

Carl won the 1st district that, according to Cook Political Report, was at a +16 advantage for Republicans at the time. It also included all of Mobile County, which was Carl’s voting base.

“I think this will be a top race for some national groups,” Horn said. “But what we have found over and over (again) in Alabama, specifically, is when national groups north of the Mason-Dixon try to get involved in (Alabama) races, it very rarely works out for those groups.”

Fundraising

Gray said it will be interesting to see how fundraising materializes. He noted that Carl’s campaign has accumulated debt, while Moore remains competitive with fundraising.

According to the latest Federal Election Commission summary ending on Sept. 30, Carl’s congressional campaign has over $294,000 in debt. The Moore campaign ended the fiscal year with $869,000 to Moore’s $647,000. Moore’s FEC records do not show any debt.

“I think that could be very problematic,” Gray said about Carl.

Local support

Horn said the campaign will be won or lost by outreach into the Wiregrass and other counties that make up the newly draw district.

To that end, she believes Carl is hustling and getting himself known in the Wiregrass counties.

“Jerry Carl is incredibly visible in this part of the district, the new part of the district, speaking to groups and making himself known,” Horn said. “I think he’s making a play for the Wiregrass.”

She added, “The common (comment) is that Moore would win the Wiregrass, and Carl will get Mobile. But the way Congressman Carl is smartly running this and introducing himself, it’s definitely making himself known to this area. It’s retail campaigning.”

Moore will, likewise, need to get himself known in Mobile and Baldwin counties where Carl – shortly after announcing he was seeking re-election – unfurled a list of endorsements from mayors, sheriffs, county officials and state lawmakers in Mobile and Baldwin counties.

In Moore’s candidacy announcement, he noted that he was among the first elected officials to endorse then-presidential candidate Donald Trump during the famed 2015 rally at Mobile’s Ladd-Peebles Stadium. The rally has long been recognized as one of Trump’s first large stadium-style rallies that became a hallmark of his successful run for the White House in 2016. Moore, at the time, was a member of the Alabama State House. Media accounts later said that Moore did not vote in the 2016 primary election.

Moore also recognized how the redrawn district has become one of the most conservative in the nation, adding that “we deserve an effective representative in Congress who is equally as conservative.”

Baldwin, Mobile votes

The key question in the race is if Moore can convince enough Republicans in Mobile and Baldwin counties – who are long familiar with Carl – to vote for him. Baldwin and Mobile counties consist of 54% of the overall voting age population in District 1.

“Mobile and Baldwin will be big voting blocs, and I would imagine Carl has far more political networking and better name recognition than Moore in that population center of District 1,” said Brown.

He added, “It will be interesting to see how much money Moore can raise. Even when an incumbent runs against an incumbent, you don’t take away the three basics of campaigning – money, messaging and manpower. I would imagine Carl has worked the district before and has an organization network Moore has not had.”

Carl’s list of political endorsements, Gray said, largely will not matter. And he said that Baldwin County voters, who tend to be socially conservative, are very much in play.

“(Carl) will tout that elected officials are showing him support, but the last thing voters want to hear is what other elected officials are saying,” Gray said. “Unless your last name is Trump, endorsements from other elected officials have not been worth anything.”

Horn disagrees. She said that endorsements on the local level are important.

“If you’re going to vote for the president in March, you might go to someone you trust and ask who they are also voting up and down the ballot,” Horn said. “You might go to the sheriff, the mayor and ask, ‘Have you met Carl or Moore?’ and ‘Who would you support?’”

Debates

Another thing to keep an eye on is whether there will be a rare Republican versus Republican debate for a high office in Alabama.

Wahl said he will push for one. Neither the campaigns of Carl or Moore responded to a request for comment about whether their candidates would be interested in debating.

“I always encourage Republican primaries to stay positive and discuss issues and values that you believe in and hopefully we won’t see this race get too negative over the new few months before the primary,” Wahl said, adding that a debate – hosted by the state GOP — is a way to dive into the issues.

“I’m a strong supporter of debates,” he said. “And hearing from the candidates in a forum, and not a scripted message. The Alabama Republican Party is always supportive of debates. We think it’s healthy to hear from the candidates and to get their viewpoints in a primary contest.”