Alabama’s 2nd congressional district has been mostly in Republican hands since the 1960s, but that could swiftly change by next year.

Democrats from Mobile to Montgomery counties – and even in Birmingham — are lining up ahead of the beginning of the qualifying period Friday to run for an open congressional seat that is being redrawn to allow for the potential of greater Black representation.

“I think it’s a ‘Hallelujah!’ day for Alabama in terms of progress,” said state Senator Vivian Figures, D-Mobile.

Said State Senator Merika Coleman, D-Birmingham, “The three-judge panel sent an order up that said we have the population to have a second majority-minority district. The rule of law is prevailing. I think it’s an exciting day for Alabama.”

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The two state senators are both weighing a run for the newly drawn congressional district, which has not been finalized but is expected to be revealed in the coming days.

The U.S. Supreme Court, in a ruling Tuesday, allowed the drawing of Alabama’s congressional map to proceed by Richard Allen, the court-appointed special master. Three proposed maps redraw the district to include parts of North Mobile County and heavily Black populations in and around Prichard, the Alabama Black Belt region, and the entire City of Montgomery. Allen’s proposals would alter the boundaries of District 2 so that Black voters comprise between 48.5% to over 50% of the voting-age population.

The shift is viewed as favorable to Democrats. Cook Political Report labels the district as “lean Democrat.” It’s a dramatic reversal for a district that was given a +34 advantage for Republicans by FiveThirtyEight.com. It’s a district where U.S. Rep. Barry Moore – whose hometown of Enterprise is now likely in Alabama’s 1st congressional district – won by 30.5 percentage points in 2020.

Democratic hopefuls

Some names have surfaced as possible candidates for the seat in 2024. Democratic candidates can begin qualifying for office on Friday. The party’s deadline is November 10. Republican qualification opens on October 16.

Possible candidates include:

• Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed, the 49-year-old son of longtime Alabama Democratic Conference chairman Joe Reed, and a likely frontrunner if he decides to run. Steven Reed, the city’s first Black mayor, easily won re-election to the city’s top elected post in August. His office did not respond to requests for comment. On Twitter, Reed stated he was pleased to see the Supreme Court deny Alabama’s request for an emergency stay on the ruling by the three-judge panel, which found the map approved by the GOP-dominated Legislature in July as a violation to the Voting Rights Act.
• State Senator Vivian Figures, D-Mobile, said she is possibly interested in running for the congressional seat, depending on the final map that is released. Figures, 66, has served in the Alabama State Senate for over 26 years, and won a highly watched Senate contest last year against Republican challenger Pete Riehm.

• State Senator Merika Coleman, D-Birmingham, does not live in the district but she said she weighing a possible run for the seat. The U.S. Constitution only requires that a member of the U.S. House live in the state that he or she is elected to serve. The 50-year-old lawmaker has served in the Alabama Legislature since 2002, and says she is known statewide on a variety of issues including leading the efforts to remove racist language referring to the poll tax and school segregation from the Alabama Constitution.

• State Rep. Napoleon Bracy, D-Prichard, said he is “seriously considering” a run for the congressional seat. Bracy, 46, has been a member of the Alabama State House since 2011, and served as a member of the Prichard City Council before that.

• State Senator Kirk Hatcher, D-Montgomery, has served in the Alabama State Senate since 2021, and has been discussed as a possible candidate for the office. He could not be reached for comment.

Democratic intrigue

The political dynamics could create a political district that pits Mobile against Montgomery, though the Capital City would be the dominate population base. Under the three maps, Mobile County would be split, with most of the southern and western sections of the county – long considered Republican – merged into the 1st congressional district that stretches east through the southern Wiregrass.

The potential exists for Mobile County to have two members of the U.S. House at the same time. U.S. Rep. Jerry Carl, R-Mobile, is running for re-election in the 1st district.

“It’s possible,” said Jess Brown, a longtime Alabama state political observer and retired professor of political sciences at Athens State University. “But I think it becomes a Montgomery-centric district. Montgomery is the population center. And (Reed) would be a high-profile candidate because he’s well known in the Montgomery area.”

Derryn Moten, acting chairman of the history department at Alabama State University, said he will be more intrigued with seeing how the dynamics within the Democratic Party play out over the seat.

“What I am certain of is there will be a donnybrook between the ADC, New South Coalition, and the Alabama State Democratic Party if Mayor Reed runs for Congressional District 2,” Moten said. “He will presumably have the full blessing so the ADC.”

Republican hopes

Republicans will have an opportunity to win the seat even though the district is being redrawn favorably for Democrats.

Few names have emerged as possible contenders, though former Alabama Senator Dick Brewbaker – who served in the Statehouse until 2018 – said he’s “certainly looking into it.”

“I’d be crazy not to,” said Brewbaker. “There is no incumbent. I’d be crazy not to at least look into it.”

Brown said that Democrats will need white votes to secure the seat during a General Election contest against Republicans. He said if the race becomes a “straight-up racial polarization” contest, with white voters strictly backing a Republican while Black votes support only the Democrat, “the Republicans can potentially hang onto the seat.”

The contest is also anticipated to draw some national interest, as it represents a possible Democratic flip within the U.S. House where Republicans hold a slim majority.

“House races in presidential election years automatically get less attention,” Brown said. “They get more attention in the non-presidential years. But I would not be surprised if the parties send in at least some key players from Congress (to campaign through the district).”