Who can beat Alabama in March Madness? Evaluating the bracket ahead of Sweet 16
The depth and talent of Alabama men’s basketball has confounded teams all season. With few exceptions, the Crimson Tide has strung together elite stretches of basketball, and even when it’s not playing its best or at its healthiest, it’s still beating teams handily by double-digits.
Through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, a question has been raised to the two coaches who the Tide has bounced out: How good is Alabama?
First to be asked was Steve Lutz, then the head coach of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. The Islanders played Arizona, the No. 2 seed in the South region on Dec. 13, losing 99-61. When comparing the Tide and Wildcats, Lutz said it would be like “splitting hairs” between two title contenders. But he said that on Thursday before 15th-seeded Princeton upset Arizona and before Alabama’s path to its first Final Four in program history got much easier.
Maryland and coach Kevin Willard called the 2022-23 Tide one of the most talented the sport has seen in nearly 20 years. The Terrapins found success in grinding the game to a halt, limiting Alabama to eight fastbreak points and 11 bench points. They hung in for a half. Foul trouble to Julian Reese and lack of offensive firepower sunk an upset bid. Willard was asked how to handle Alabama’s depth for 40 minutes.
“To be honest with you, I think you’re going to have to play (like us) to beat them,” Willard said. “I watched Houston. I think Houston’s got the defense that they can get up and down. They have the one on one players — did UCLA win? I think (UCLA head coach Mick Cronin) has the talent that can run up and down with them a little bit. I just — they have, you know, their coming off the bench, you know, with seven-foot-one, six-foot-11, six-foot-eight. Jaden Bradley is an All-American; he’s coming off the bench. We knew we had to slow it up.”
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Per The Lines, Alabama opens as a seven-point favorite against the Aztecs. Nate Oats and co. have the best odds to reach the national semifinals at -125 (meaning you would need to bet $125 to win $100, a total payout of $225). That’s with Alabama reaching its team field-goal percentage (44.4%) just twice this month.
As of Sunday morning, the final day of the second round, two No. 1 seeds have lost in Purdue and Kansas. In the Tide’s corner of the bracket, No. 4 Virginia also dropped its opening game. To reach Houston, Alabama will need to overcome No. 5 San Diego State on Friday and the winner of No. 3 Baylor versus No. 6 Creighton on Sunday.
“Not really, we’re just kind of focused on our task, our route to the national championship,” Jahvon Quinerly said after scoring a team-high 22 points against Maryland. “Obviously, we seen that Virginia and Arizona lost, but we really didn’t speak much on it. I feel like we’re just focused on the next opponent. … We all kinda know anybody can win in March. We just kinda focus on the task at hand.”
In Alabama’s five losses, a few commonalities emerge in the box scores: Alabama has made no more than nine 3s in each of its defeats; its field-goal clip hovered near 40%; it averaged 18.6 turnovers in those games.
Three teams remain in the NCAA Tournament that has taken down Alabama this season. it could play four-seed Tennessee in the Final Four and either No. 3 Gonzaga or No. 1 Houston in the championship. The fact that Alabama has room to improve, at least on offense, and has yet to be threatened only bolsters its case for a historic run.
Nick Alvarez is a reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @nick_a_alvarez or email him at [email protected].