Bruce Pearl doesn’t sugarcoat things with his team.

Immediately after Auburn lost on its home floor to rival Alabama on Saturday afternoon, the Tigers’ third straight loss and fifth in their last six games, Pearl shifted focus to the bigger picture: the NCAA Tournament.

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What once felt like a mere formality for Auburn a few weeks ago is now an uncertainty amid the team’s recent struggles. Auburn hasn’t been playing terrible, but its inability to close out games during the toughest part of its schedule has cost it opportunities to fortify its postseason resume. During its current three-game skid, each of Auburn’s losses has been by single digits to a Quad 1 opponent.

“We’ve lost to five NCAA Tournament teams, and because we’ve had such a good year from a standpoint of beating the team we were supposed to beat, we’ve got some great road wins, and the margins that we’ve lost have been close, our NET is not getting destroyed, which keeps you where you need to be,” Pearl said Saturday. “But, we’ve got some games coming up this week that we need to win. So, that’s the mindset.”

Now, the Tigers are in must-win mode with about a month to go until Selection Sunday and — by comparison — a lighter stretch of games ahead. That begins with Tuesday’s home game against Missouri, followed by a Saturday trip to Vanderbilt and then a return home to host Ole Miss. Both of those are Quad 2 opportunities for Pearl’s team.

“They know exactly where we are and who’s who and what’s at stake,” Pearl said Monday. “Honesty’s the best policy.”

For the rest of the season, AL.com will take a weekly snapshot of Auburn’s NCAA Tournament resume, with a look at the team’s record by quadrant, as well as the latest projections for the Tigers in the field of 68. Here’s where things stand with about five weeks until the start of the NCAA Tournament:

Auburn’s season at a glance:

Overall record: 17-8

SEC record: 7-5 (tied for fourth in the league)

AP poll rank: unranked

KenPom: 28th (60th in offensive efficiency, 21st in defensive efficiency)

NET ranking: 35th

Home record: 11-2

Road record: 4-5

Neutral-site record: 2-1

Quadrant 1 record: 2-6

Quadrant 2 record: 5-2

Quadrant 3 record: 5-0

Quadrant 4 record: 5-0

Best resume win: Jan. 7 vs. Arkansas, 72-59, at Neville Arena (Quadrant 1 win)

Worst resume loss: Jan. 3 at Georgia, 76-64 (Quadrant 2 loss)

Strength of record: 34th

NET Strength of schedule: 45th

The week ahead: vs. Missouri on Tuesday at 6 p.m. (Quadrant 2 opportunity), at Vanderbilt on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. (Quadrant 2 opportunity).

Latest NCAA Tournament projections (as of Jan. 31)

— Bracket Matrix, which currently weighs projections from 100 expert brackets, has Auburn as a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers appear on all 100 brackets.

— ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Auburn as a No. 10 seed in the South Region his latest bracket projection. Lunardi has Auburn on the bubble as one of the last four teams to avoid the play-in games. His bracket currently has Auburn slated for an opening-round rematch with No. 7 seed Northwestern in Denver. The Tigers defeated the Wildcats in a rock fight in the Cancun Challenge back in November.

— CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm has Auburn as a 10-seed in the West Region in his latest projections. In this bracket, Auburn’s opening-round game would be against seventh-seeded Duke in Des Moines, Iowa.

— Shelby Mast of Bracket WAG has Auburn as the No. 8 seed in the South Region in that most recent projection. The Tigers would face ninth-seeded Oklahoma State in the first round in that scenario.

— RealTimeRPI.com has Auburn as a No. 7 seed in the South Region, with the Tigers opening against 10th-seeded VCU.

— Bart Torvik’s T-Rank projection has Auburn as a No. 10 seed in the field, with an 86.8 percent chance of earning an NCAA Tournament bid.

— NCAA.com’s Andy Katz has Auburn as a 10-seed and the No. 37 overall team in the field of 68 in his most recent projection. Katz projects six SEC teams to make the tournament: Alabama, Tennessee, Missouri, Arkansas, Auburn and Texas A&M.

Tom Green is an Auburn beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Tomas_Verde.