When will pumpkin spice weather arrive in Alabama?
Today, Sept. 1, marks the first day of fall — meteorological fall, that is.
Meteorologists and weather-watchers use different timing to mark the seasons. Astronomical fall begins in 22 days on Sept. 23 with the autumnal equinox. However meteorological seasons start with the beginning of calendar months.
The neater, three-month blocks make it easier to deal with data. So meteorological fall is made up of September, October and November. Meteorological winter is December, January and February; spring is March, April and May (tornado season, part 1) and summer is June, July and August.
What does Alabama have to look forward to this fall? More warm weather, at least this month. It’s not time to pull out the pumpkin spice just yet.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issues long-range temperature outlooks, and all those those as of Friday were showing increased probabilities of above-average temperatures for the state.
The three-month outlook for fall, or September, October and November, is shown at the top of this post. It shows a 33 to 40 percent chance of above-average temperatures for the northern two-thirds of Alabama this fall. South Alabama has slightly increased probabilities for warmer weather (40-50 percent).
The shorter-range predictions also look warm. The outlook for September shows a 50-60 percent probability of above-average temperatures across Alabama:
There is a 50-60 percent probability that Alabama will have above-average temperatures in September.
The outlook for precipitation in September suggests near-average rainfall is expected in Alabama, barring a tropical system coming this way:
Near-average precipitation is expected in Alabama this month.
Fall also marks Alabama’s secondary severe weather season. Tornado numbers typically start to rise in September and October and peak in November, which has more tornadoes on record in any month except for April and March.
Here’s a look at Alabama tornado numbers by month:
Here is a look at all the confirmed tornadoes in Alabama from 1950 until 2022. April is by far the busiest month, largely influenced by the two tornado outbreaks in April of 2011.
Some other things to look out for this fall:
* Peak of hurricane season: Sept. 10
* Fall equinox: Sept. 23
* Harvest moon: Sept. 29
* Time changes: Nov. 5
* End of hurricane season: Nov. 30
* And it’s 115 days until Christmas