The cold days of winter make spring seem far away but just how long it will be until we feel a warm up remains to be seen. We will get a strong hint Sunday, however, when Punxsutawney Phil makes his annual appearance at Gobbler’s Knob in Punxsutawney, Penn.

Ground Hog Day is Sunday, Feb. 2. According to legend, if Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, you can expect an early spring.

Phil will make his 2024 prediction around sunrise, roughly 7:25 am. ET (6:25 a.m. CT).

The origins of Gound Hog Day dates back to 1886 when a group of groundhog hunters from Punxsutawney dubbed themselves “The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club” and began promoting Phil was the nations’ only weather prognosticating groundhog. Phil’s fame spread and his prediction became must-watch news. Today you will find up to 35,000 in attendance and millions watching on television or streaming online.

According to Groundhog Club members, there has only been one Phil and he has been predicting since 1887, making him 135 years old. His longevity is credited to drinking “the elixir of life,” a secret recipe known to club members. Phil takes one sip every summer at the Groundhog Picnic and it magically gives him seven more years of life.

Phil’s accuracy, however, is about as iffy as you might guess for a meteorological furry critter.

The Groundhog Club says he’s always right but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts that estimate around 50%.

According to Stormfax.com, Phil has seen his shadow 108 times compared to 20 times with no shadow. There’s no record of nine of his predictions. Based on those numbers, Phil has only been correct about 39% of the time. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts that number only slightly higher at 40% over the last decade.

Here are Phil’s most recent predictions:

• 2013: No Shadow
• 2014: Shadow
• 2015: Shadow
• 2016: No Shadow
• 2017: Shadow
• 2018: Shadow
• 2019: No Shadow
• 2020: No Shadow
• 2021: Shadow
• 2022: Shadow
• 2023: Shadow
• 2024: No shadow