Whatâs in store for Alabamaâs weather in February?
The last month of winter has begun. What could be in store for Alabama’s weather?
Long-range weather outlooks are still works in progress as far as accuracy goes, but NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is offering up a look at possible trends in temperature and precipitation across the nation over the upcoming month.
The CPC has released its outlook for the month of February, and it doesn’t lean one way or another for the most part as far as temperatures and precipitation goes.
The temperature outlook for February shows that most of Alabama has equal chances of experiencing above- or below-average temperatures overall this month. The exception is part of south Alabama (including Mobile and Dothan), which has a 33-40 percent probability of near-average temperatures. (The February temperature outlook is at the top of this post.)
The February precipitation outlook shows something similar, with the majority of Alabama having equal chances of above- or below-average precipitation. South Alabama, however, has a 33-40 percent chance of experiencing above-average precipitation.
Here is the precipitation outlook for February:
South Alabama has increased probabilities of above-average precipitation over the month of February.CPC
The Climate Prediction Center also offers shorter-range outlooks for February.
The six- to 10-day temperature outlook shows that all of the state has a chance of having above-average temperatures from Feb. 6-10, with northwest Alabama having slightly higher probabilities.
Warmer-than-average temperatures could be possible for most of Alabama from Feb. 6-10 if this outlook verifies.CPC
The precipitation outlook for the same time frame suggests most of Alabama will have slightly higher probabilities of below-average precipitation through Feb. 10:
This outlook favors drier-than-average weather for most of Alabama.CPC
The eight- to 14-day temperature outlook, for the period from Feb. 8-14, shows even higher probabilities that Alabama will have above-average temperatures through mid-month:
Above-average temperatures are favored for Alabama during the Feb. 8-14 timeframe.CPC
The precipitation outlook for the same time period shows slightly increased probabilities (33-40 percent) that all of Alabama could see above-average precipitation:
There are slightly higher probabilities of above-average precipitation for Alabama from Feb. 8-14.CPC
The last forecast, the experimental Weeks 3-4 outlook, throws in a curveball, however.
The CPC temperature outlook from Feb. 10-23 shows increased probabilities (55-60 percent) that all of Alabama could have below-average temperatures:
Below-average temperatures could be possible for Alabama overall in the Week 3-4 outlook.CPC
The precipitation outlook for the same timeframe is forecasting equal chances of above- or below-average precipitation for the northern two-thirds of the state. The exception is south Alabama, which has a 50-55 percent probability of experiencing above-average precipitation:
South Alabama has increased probabilities of above-average precipitation for the Week 3-4 timeframe.CPC
So what is “average” for Alabama, anyway?
Here are some average temperatures and precipitation for several Alabama cities for February from National Weather Service data:
Birmingham: Average high 59.1; average low 38.4; average precipitation 4.95 inches.
Dothan: Average high 65.8; average low 43.3; average precipitation 4.82 inches.
Huntsville: Average high 57.1; average low 36.4; average precipitation 5.11 inches.
Mobile: Average high 65.6; average low 44.4; average precipitation 4.47 inches.
Montgomery: Average high 64.7; average low 40.4; average precipitation 4.88 inches.
Muscle Shoals: Average high 56.7; average low 36.7; average precipitation 4.79 inches.
Tuscaloosa: Average high 60.2; average low 38.9; average precipitation 5.37 inches.