What will the weather be like in July? Here’s one forecast
July in Alabama is always hot. But will it be hotter than usual?
There’s a chance, according forecasters, but it’s not a slam dunk.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center released its temperature and precipitation outlooks for July this week, and the temperature outlook includes increased chances for above-average temperatures this month.
The temperature outlook is forecasting a 33-40 percent probability of above-average heat for the entire state (that outlook is shown at the top of this post).
The precipitation outlook for July is forecasting a 40-50 percent probability for above-average rainfall for all but the northwest corner of the state (which has a 33-40 percent chance).
Most of Alabama will have increased chances for above-average rainfall in July.CPC
What is average, anyway? Below are average high temperatures and precipitation for July for several Alabama cities:
- Anniston: 90.2 degrees; 4.68 inches
- Birmingham: 91 degrees; 5.42 inches
- Clanton: 90.7 degrees; 5.38 inches
- Cullman: 87.8 degrees; 4.45 inches
- Dothan: 93.3 degrees; 5.95 inches
- Gadsden: 90.9 degrees; 4.71 inches
- Greenville: 91.7 degrees; 5.81 inches
- Huntsville: 91.5 degrees; 4.49 inches
- Mobile: 90.9 degrees; 7.69 inches
- Montgomery: 93.7 degrees; 5.06 inches
- Muscle Shoals: 91.6 degrees; 4.78 inches
- Selma: 93.2 degrees; 5.11 inches
- Troy: 90.6 degrees; 5.33 inches
- Tuscaloosa: 91.6 degrees; 4.17 inches
In the short term, the Climate Prediction Center’s eight- to 14-day temperature outlook also shows increased chances for above-average heat for all but northern Alabama from July 8-14:
South Alabama will have a higher probability of seeing above-average temperatures from July 8-14. North Alabama could be near average.CPC
The outlook is forecasting slightly higher probabilities (40-50 percent) for above-average temperatures for south Alabama and central Alabama (33-40 percent).
As for rainfall, the eight- to 14-day outlook is forecasting a 40-50 percent probability for above-average rainfall for all of Alabama except the northwest, which will have a 33-40 percent chance:
Most of Alabama will have a 40-50 percent chance for above-average rainfall from July 8-14.CPC
What about the rest of the summer?
The three-month temperature outlook shows increased chances for above-average temperatures through September for all of Alabama:
Most of Alabama has a 33-40 percent probability for above-average temperatures through September.CPC
Most of Alabama has a 33-40 percent chance for above-average temperatures, and part of south Alabama will have a 40-50 percent probability.
Here’s the three-month precipitation outlook:
Most of Alabama has increased odds of above-average rainfall through September.CPC
Most of Alabama is expected to have a 40-50 percent probability of above-average rainfall through September (which can be a drier month). The exception is northwest Alabama which has a 33-40 percent probability.