What the analytics say about Tide’s 2-point conversion tries
In a small, stifling room under Tiger Stadium where a steel door separated Nick Saban’s news conference from the jubilant sounds of exiting LSU fans, awkward laughter broke out.
Saban had just answered a reporter’s question about Alabama’s decisions to twice attempt two-point conversions in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s loss in Baton Rouge. He punctuated his answer by reaching toward his back pocket and saying, “I got the chart right here, you want to see it?”
That drew some chuckles from the room and maybe even a brief grin from Saban, who ventured back into the madness of the locker-room tunnel having defended his decision-making with back-pocket analytics.
But was he right?
Here were the situations: Alabama’s first attempt came after a Roydell Williams touchdown run with 12:37 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Tide led by one point, 15-14. On the play, Bryce Young threw into traffic over the middle and the ball fell incomplete between Ja’Corey Brooks and JoJo Earle.
“When you’re ahead by one point, if you go for two, you’re ahead by three,” Saban explained. “So a field goal ties the game, so it makes sense, does it not?”
The second attempt came after Brooks’ touchdown catch with 4:44 left on the clock. The Tide led by four points, 21-17. On the play, Young threw over the middle to Brooks, who had inside position on his defender but could not catch the pass.
“When you’re ahead by four, it really doesn’t matter, other than the fact that they got to kick two field goals, even though a touchdown still puts you down one,” Saban said. “But five [points] does nothing more than four. Is that correct?”
That follows the logic of a simple chart first popularized by Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Dick Vermeil at UCLA in the 1970s. But more modern analytics have added nuance to the decisions and consider how much time is remaining in the game.
One version from ESPN designed for NFL two-point conversions — which are theoretically easier from the 2-yard line than college’s 3-yard line attempts — heavily favors going for two when up by one point in the fourth quarter. The decision to go for it when leading by four points is less certain but becomes more favorable to a two-point try late in the game, which was when Alabama faced the situation Saturday night.
A different version of the matrix from FiveThirtyEight puts Alabama’s first decision (up by one point) in the no-brainer category. For the Tide’s second decision when up four points, the call is much less clear, and FiveThirtyEight pegs a two-point attempt and an extra-point attempt as having virtually the same effect on win probability.
Alabama led 21-17 after Brooks’ touchdown and the missed two-point try. LSU responded with a touchdown and extra point to make the score 24-21, then Alabama kicked a game-tying field goal to send the game to regulation.
Had Alabama kicked an extra point after Brooks’ touchdown, it would have led, 22-17. The Tigers touchdown would have made the score 23-22, likely resulting in an LSU two-point attempt during regulation. The success or failure of that Tigers try would have determined whether Reichard’s ensuing field goal attempt was game-tying or game-winning.
Mike Rodak is an Alabama beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @mikerodak.