What makes this CFP season unique, scenarios endless

What makes this CFP season unique, scenarios endless

Welcome to where this can get really weird.

Now weeks into the 2023 College Football Playoff ranking routine, nothing’s certain but we could be headed down an unprecedented path.

Three weeks.

Same top 8.

The only change Tuesday came when Georgia jumped Ohio State for No. 1 but it’s effectively the same.

And for one final year, only four will survive this examination with a shot at the top prize in what’s shaping up as a grand finale of the original format.

It’s crazy for a few reasons.

First, all five power conferences have legitimate claims for inclusion. That hasn’t happened in a while considering the Pac-12 has only had teams in two of the nine years and none since 2016. The SEC’s had two teams twice while the Big Ten did it last year.

As we stand now, five teams from four conferences have undefeated records entering the final two weeks of the regular season. Go back just two years, and only one Power 5 team was undefeated in mid-November and that Georgia team went on to win it all.

Part of what makes this interesting is the fact it’s been rather uninteresting at the top. The five undefeated teams have survived 10 one-score games while playing considerably weaker schedules than the one-loss teams behind them.

Those unbeatens have an average schedule strength of 52, according to the Sagarin Ratings. While No. 6 Oregon has the 54th most difficult schedule, No. 7 Texas is 8th and No. 8 Alabama has played the most challenging slate to date.

“Winning matters,” CFP selection committee chair Boo Corrigan said when asked about separating the undefeated teams from the one-loss teams on the ESPN broadcast.

Here are the top 8 teams with their strength of schedule

  1. Georgia 65
  2. Ohio State 42
  3. Michigan 63
  4. Florida State 49
  5. Washington 40
  6. Oregon 54
  7. Texas 8
  8. Alabama 1

Since recording the biggest early-season win at Alabama, the Longhorns have also lived dangerously with three one-score wins. A pair of three-point wins in consecutive weeks over Kansas State and TCU kept Texas alive after a 34-30 loss to Oklahoma.

Alabama’s teetered on the edge of the abyss a few times but escaped scares from Texas A&M (26-20) and Arkansas (24-21) before coming back from 13-down at halftime against Tennessee.

Bottom line: The top 8 has tried its best to trim itself down but keeps hanging on.

Just a fascinating level of near eliminations.

So, now what?

Two weeks to go before conference championships and still plenty of time for CFP Darwinism.

Washington has the toughest task of this otherwise sleepy weekend as it faces No. 11 Oregon State (8-2). Georgia heads to No. 18 Tennessee after the Vols dropped two of their last three SEC games. Texas will hit the road to face an Iowa State program that famously beat Oklahoma State in 2011 to put Alabama back in the BCS title game it eventually won over LSU.

All eyes will then turn to the following weekend where a few things will be sort out.

On top of the Ohio State-Michigan fight, Oregon faces Oregon State, Florida State travels to Florida and Washington plays host to Washington State. The last two would be sweet revenge games for the only remaining Pac-12 teams facing bitter rivals on their way out.

And, there’s the Iron Bowl.

Just looking at Alabama, should the Crimson Tide navigate Saturday’s visit from Chattanooga and the always dangerous trip to Jordan-Hare, the Dec. 2 SEC championship game with Georgia would effectively be a playoff quarterfinal.

It’s truly hard to imagine a scenario where the Crimson Tide wouldn’t get a spot should it dethrone the two-time defending national champion in Atlanta.

Right?

But … right?

This year’s a bit of a screwball but the possibility of an SEC-free playoff is a bridge too far even in a relatively soft year for the league.

So hang tight out there. This will all work itself out.

Probably.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.