The College Football Playoff selection committee released its first batch of rankings Tuesday night, and Alabama landed at No. 11. The SEC and Big Ten had four representatives in the top 12, while the ACC and Big 12 had one.

Since the CFP was introduced in 2015, a two-loss team like the Crimson Tide never has earned a spot. With the field expanding to 12 teams for the first time this season, Alabama controls its destiny.

Here’s where Alabama’s odds to win the national championship stand following last night’s CFP rankings release.

Latest Alabama CFB national championship odds

The exact odds vary at each sportsbook, but every operator has the same five teams at the top of the national championship odds board: Ohio State, Georgia, Oregon, Texas and Miami.

Alabama and Tennessee are next in line with identical odds at most sportsbooks. This may be shocking, considering the Volunteers hold a better record and defeated the Crimson Tide a few weeks ago.

However, Tennessee’s remaining schedule is tougher than Alabama’s schedule. In the final four weeks, the Volunteers will play on the road against No. 3 Georgia and Vanderbilt, which beat Alabama earlier this season.

The Crimson Tide should be heavily favored in three of their final four games against Mercer (FCS), Oklahoma (5-4) and Auburn (3-6). Two of the three matchups take place at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Assuming Alabama takes care of business in those games, the fate of the season hangs in the balance Saturday against LSU. Oddsmakers favor the Crimson Tide by a field goal, but winning a night game in Death Valley is never easy.

The Tigers also are 6-2 with highlight wins over South Carolina, Ole Miss and Arkansas. LSU’s losses came by an average of 11 points versus USC in Week 1 and Texas A&M in Week 9.

Alabama’s odds to make the College Football Playoff

Alabama has long odds to win the national championship, but a CFP berth is far more likely. The Crimson Tide are the only two-loss team with minus odds to make the playoff.

If Alabama takes down LSU and wins its final three games handily, the Tide will have an undeniable case to make the CFP. Defeating LSU followed by two or three tight victories leaves Alabama’s fate in the hands of the selection committee.

SMU and Iowa State are behind Alabama in the CFP rankings because each school’s strength of schedule doesn’t match the Crimson Tide’s. However, there’s a chance the Mustangs and Cyclones finish with better records than Alabama, making it crucial for the Tide to beat LSU and win the last three games by a wide margin.

Based on the current CFP rankings, the selection committee favors teams playing tougher competition with identical or worse records than those playing inferior teams. That could change if Alabama doesn’t take care of business at the end of the year.