Week 7 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero

Week 7 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero

**Editor’s Note: Time to take the 6-0 Challenge and make your Week 6 picks against “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero.” Joseph Goodman’s popular college football picks feature, “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero,” is adding readers to the action this season. Pick your Week 6 games here, and sign up for Joe’s newsletter to see how your picks compare to the experts (and Joe) as well as other readers.

________________________

This is an opinion column.

Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, bartenders, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 14th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms.

This season, for the first time ever, readers are getting in on the action. Sign up for Joe’s newsletter, “Joe Goodman’s Sports Happy Hour,” to submit your picks each week and compare your wits against the experts (and Joe). The newsletter comes out every Thursday afternoon during the football season, so don’t procrastinate with your prognostications.

Joe subscribes to ol’ Billy Shakespeare’s philosophy of picking football games. “Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard. What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.

THE GRAND EXPERIMENT

Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.

The Pro is Lee Sterling, a noted numbers man of national success. Sterling features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but The Pro fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.

No one works harder than Hero Ben Abercrombie. Nobody. Ben played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.

Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.

6-0 CHALLENGE

We had a winner of the 6-0 Challenge for the second week in a row. This time it was Danny Moye of Brewton, Ala., who notched a perfect pick’em record against the spread. Congrats, Danny, and enjoy those free samples at Costco.

It’s been a tough year for pickers of college football games, but the collective brain trust of college football fans in Alabama is bucking the trend. Two weeks ago, Josh Williams of Chatom, Ala., went 6-0.

Last week, the 6-0 Challenge quiz question was what artifact would you want to see in a museum dedicated to the SEC West. Moye went with Bo Jackson’s cleats, and while Jackson never played in the SEC West, his legacy at Auburn certainly helped blaze a path to the Tigers’ success in the division.

Click the link here to make your picks for Week 7 of the 6-0 Challenge. The quiz question is getting a lot of interest already.

LAST WEEK

Joe: 3-3 straight up, 2-4 against the spread

Pro: 3-3 straight up, 2-4 against the spread

Hero: 5-1 straight up, 3-3 against the spread

Notes: Hero won big with Alabama and UAB.

THIS SEASON

Joe: 21-15 straight up, 14-21-1 against the spread

Pro: 25-11 straight up, 16-19-1 against the spread

Hero: 24-12 straight up, 18-17-1 against the spread

Notes: Hero started in the hole this season, but Harvard’s finest is now showing everyone how it’s done. On to the picks!

Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, sophomore Jeremy Jackson and his pet duck, Quacktavious. (Courtesy of Jeremy Jackson)

No.8 Oregon (5-0, 2-0) at No.7 Washington (5-0, 2-0)

When: 2:30 p.m. CT, Sat.

Where: Husky Stadium, Seattle

TV: ABC

Series: Washington leads 61-48-5.

Spread: Washington by 3

Trendy: Oregon is 4-0 against the spread this season against FBS opponents.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: This is the first time in the 123-year history of this rivalry that both teams have met while being ranked in the Top 10.

Joe says: It’s a massive college football weekend in Seattle with ESPN College GameDay coming to town for just the third time in the show’s 30 years on location. Both teams have had a week to prepare and both teams have Heisman Trophy contenders at quarterback. I love Michael Penix, Jr., and always have since his days at Indiana. I just think Bo Nix is a touch better at taking care of the football. Oregon is ranked fifth in the country in passing defense and defense travels.

Joe’s pick: Oregon 36, Washington 34

Pro says: Both teams’ offenses are scary good, but the difference here might come down to the Ducks having the No.6 defense while Huskies check in at a middling No.62. Revenge has to play a factor also as Oregon was ranked No.6 last year and cruising at 8-1 until Washington pulled the upset in Eugene. Time to return the favor.

Pro’s pick: Oregon 45, Washington 40

Hero says: Both these teams had last week off to prepare for this huge game with playoff implications. Both teams are also led by experienced quarterbacks with offenses that average around 50 points per game. The Ducks appear to have the better running game on offense and the better defense, but the Huskies will have the most dynamic player on the field with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback and home field advantage in Husky stadium. I like the home team in a high scoring shootout.

Hero’s pick: Washington 38, Oregon 34

Joe Milton III

Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III throws to a receiver during the second half of the team’s NCAA college football game against South Carolina on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)AP

Texas A&M (4-2, 2-1) at No.19 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1)

When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tenn.

TV: CBS

Series: Series tied 2-2.

Spread: Tennessee by 3.5

Trendy: Tennessee is 8-1 against the spread at home since the beginning of the 2022 season.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Tennessee once again leads the nation in offensive plays per minute at 2.86.

Joe says: Tennessee has played Texas A&M fewer times than any other SEC opponent, so there’s still some novelty to this cross-division matchup. There’s nothing novel with how Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher calls games, though. His conservative play calling against Alabama arguably cost the Aggies the game last week. Texas A&M consistently plays under its talent level and Tennessee trends in the opposite direction under coach Josh Heupel. I’ll play the trends with the Vols inside Neyland Stadium one week after locking down South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler.

Joe’s pick: Tennessee 28, Texas A&M 21

Pro says: The Vols use the running game to set up the passing attack but the Aggies ‘D’ allows only 84 yards per game and 2.6 yards per attempt. Tennessee’s offense had trouble with Florida’s defense and they aren’t in the same league as this Texas A&M team. The Aggies have a slew of five stars on the two-deep roster. Only a hangover from the loss to Alabama gives the Vols a path to win.

Pro’s pick: Texas A&M 30, Tennessee 26

Hero says: The Vols had the week off last week while the Aggies suffered a tough loss at home to the Crimson Tide. Tennessee has a good running game, but I am not sure they will have much success against a strong Aggie front seven on defense. Vols quarterback Joe Milton will need to make big plays down the field. The Aggies have some playmakers on offense, but had a difficult time protecting quarterback Max Johnson last week against Alabama. I believe the Volunteers will make enough big plays on offense and their defense will limit the success of the Texas A&M offense at home in Neyland Stadium.

Hero’s pick: Tennessee 31, Texas A&M 24

Sam Hartman

Notre Dame Sam Hartman celebrates with Zeke Correll during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Central Michigan on Saturday, Sept. 16, 2023, in South Bend, Ind.AP Photo/Michael Caterina

No.10 USC (6-0) at No.21 Notre Dame (5-2)

When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind.

TV: NBC/Peacock

Series: Notre Dame leads 48-37-5.

Spread: N.D. by 2.5

Trendy: USC hasn’t covered the spread in three consecutive weeks.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita passed for five touchdowns last week against USC. USC won 43-41 in double overtime.

Joe says: USC’s defense took the night off last week and the Trojans still managed to remain undefeated. I’m trying to completely wash that result out of my mind for this classic rivalry game, but it’s tough. I’m expecting a big score here. Notre Dame had its defensive struggles last week, too, allowing 16 straight points in the fourth quarter to Louisville. It feels like this game will come down to who makes fewer mistakes and I’m going with the team that always seems to find a way to win … oh, and also happens to have the best player in the country in quarterback Caleb Williams.

Joe’s pick: USC 42, Notre Dame 35

Pro says: Everyone who follows college football probably knows the Trojans have one of the best offenses in the country. What very few people are aware of is they rank No.8 in the country in sacks and Notre Dame quarterback Sam Hartman was sacked five times last week. The Irish look played out after back-to-back road games at Duke and Louisville.

Pro’s pick: USC 37, Notre Dame 30

Hero says: The Fighting Irish have already suffered two losses this season and now must host undefeated USC with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Caleb Williams. The Trojans won an exciting triple overtime game versus Arizona at home last week, but USC’s defense continues to be a liability that Williams and the Trojans offense must overcome. Irish quarterback Sam Hartman will not be leading Notre Dame to a national championship as hoped for by Fighting Irish fans, but he still can lead Notre Dame to a huge win over the Trojans. USC is never out of a game with Williams at quarterback, but I believe the Irish defense can stop the USC offense enough to preserve a victory at home.

Hero’s pick: Notre Dame 34, USC 31

Miami fan

A Miami fan looks on during the first half of an NCAA college football game between Miami and Georgia Tech, Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, in Miami Gardens, Fla. (AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)AP

No.25 Miami (4-1, 0-1) at No.12 North Carolina (5-0, 2-0)

When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, N.C.

TV: ABC

Series: UNC leads 13-11.

Spread: UNC by 3.5

Trendy: Tar Heels are 4-1 against the spread this season and have covered in three consecutive weeks.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: North Carolina is 5-0 for the first time since 1997. Before that, the Tar Heels’ last 5-0 start was in 1983.

Joe says: The Canes are better than No.25 in the country, but that blunder last week by coach Mario Cristobal is skewing how people view this team. Everyone loves UNC quarterback Drake Maye, and he’s great, but Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke actually has a slightly better completion percentage and more yards per attempt. This is going to be a close one, but I’ll buck the trends and take the Canes despite the inexplicable mistake last week against Georgia Tech. Miami had four turnovers and still should have won that game. The fifth turnover at the end will go down as a historic blooper.

Joe’s pick: Miami 33, UNC 31

Pro says: Miami either lays down after last week’s collapse or they play like they want to take their frustration out on someone. If this were the last game of the season I would say the former. Seeing as all their goals are out in front of them still I’ll guess the latter. North Carolina’s defense hasn’t faced a stiff breeze this season. Even little Appy State totaled almost 500 total yards and 34 points. Miami is way better than that on offense and is clearly the most talented and deep defense the Tar Heels will face all season.

Pro’s pick: Miami 34, UNC 30

Hero says: The Canes suffered a very avoidable loss at home last week when they fumbled the football away to Georgia Tech. All Miami needed to do was take a knee. I am afraid that unbelievable loss will linger all season. Meanwhile, North Carolina has put together a quiet undefeated season led by effective quarterback Drake Maye and an improved defense. I don’t think that the Tar Heels are among the elite teams in college football yet, but they are catching Miami at a good time.

Hero’s pick: North Carolina 31, Miami 25

Auburn, AL - 20230930 - Auburn Tigers Football vs. (1) Georgia Bulldogs

Auburn running back Jarquez Hunter stretches for a touchdown during the game between the Auburn Tigers and the Georgia Bulldogs at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, AL on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023. Photo by Zach Bland/Auburn TigersZach Bland/Auburn Tigers

Auburn (3-2, 0-2) at No.22 LSU (4-2, 3-1)

When: 6 p.m. CT, Sat.

Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge

TV: ESPN

Series: LSU leads 32-24-1.

Spread: LSU by 11

Trendy: Auburn has covered the spread in four consecutive years against LSU.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: The home team has won 18 of the last 23 in the series.

Joe says: These two teams take a break next season and I don’t think you’re going to hear any complaining from either side. Losses to Auburn tend to get coaches fired at LSU. Brian Kelly should be OK this season either way, but the shine is officially off of his SEC West championship last season. LSU has played some tough games to begin the season and probably needs a break. With a week to prepare, Auburn should make this one interesting and the Tigers might even be in a position late in the game to give coach Hugh Freeze his first victory against LSU since 2015.

Joe’s pick: LSU 28, Auburn 24

Pro says: The Tigers scored 49 points last week against Missouri and they are just starting to jell. Auburn’s defense played hard the last two weeks but Georgia and Texas A&M’s offenses aren’t in the same stratosphere as this LSU offense that will have multiple high draft picks in the coming NFL draft. Auburn has an extra week to game plan to score on LSU’s defense but probably doesn’t have the weapons to exploit it.

Pro’s pick: LSU 35, Auburn 20

Hero says: LSU survived the trip to Mizzou last week due to the amazing play of Tigers’ quarterback Jayden Daniels. Auburn had last week off to make adjustments after the improved performance against Georgia the week before. This should be a very interesting game in Baton Rouge. Auburn’s defense looks good enough to slow down LSU’s offense a bit, but LSU’s porous defense may be able to show improvement against a below average Auburn offense. This game should be very competitive, but I believe the home Tigers will find a way to win another SEC game.

Hero’s pick: LSU 33, Auburn 24

Alabama Mississippi St Football

Alabama head coach Nick Saban urges his team after a Mississippi State touchdown during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in Starkville, Miss. Alabama won 40-17.(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Arkansas (2-4, 0-3) at No.11 Alabama (5-1, 3-0)

When: 11a.m. CT, Sat.

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala.

TV: ESPN

Series: Alabama leads 23-8.

Spread: Alabama by 19.5

Trendy: Arkansas is 4-1 against the spread in its last five true road games.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe’s passing accuracy is up to 72.7 percent since missing the game against USF.

Joe says: Alabama has won 15 in a row in the series, so I’m going to refrain from picking against the Crimson Tide in three consecutive weeks. Alabama is improving week to week, but there’s still plenty of room to grow. It’s not a horrible place to be while also sitting in the driver’s seat of the SEC West. I’m expecting a big game from Jalen Milroe his second time around against the Hogs, but this line seems ridiculous based on what we’ve seen so far.

Joe’s pick: Alabama 35, Arkansas 21

Pro says: This might be the game the Alabama running game breaks out. Arkansas has little defensive line depth and has allowed 189, 196 and 204 yards rushing in their three SEC games. Doubt the Hogs can play keep away on offense as they have run for only 42 and 36 yards the last two weeks. Unless Bama has a letdown there probably isn’t a path for Arkansas to win and it will also be tough to get the cover.

Pro’s pick: Alabama 38, Arkansas 14

Hero says: It is hard to believe that Arkansas has lost four games in a row. The Hogs have fought hard and been in every game but just cannot find a way to win. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe had to win the game with his arm last week at Texas A&M, which is something few people thought he could do a few weeks ago. However, Alabama’s running game has not been very explosive and will need to get on track for the Crimson Tide to compete for an SEC championship. The Razorbacks may put a scare into the homecoming crowd at Bryant-Denny for some of the game, but the Tide defense should be able to stop the Hogs offense when needed to ensure a tough homecoming win.

Hero’s pick: Alabama 27, Arkansas 13