Week 5 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero
**Editor’s Note: Time to take the 6-0 Challenge and make your Week 5 picks against “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero.” Joseph Goodman’s popular college football picks feature, “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero,” is adding readers to the action this season. Pick your Week 5 games here, and sign up for Joe’s newsletter to see how your picks compare to the experts (and Joe) as well as other readers.
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Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, bartenders, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 14th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms.
This season, for the first time ever, readers are getting in on the action. Sign up for Joe’s newsletter, “Joe Goodman’s Sports Happy Hour,” to submit your picks each week and compare your wits against the experts (and Joe). The newsletter comes out every Thursday afternoon during the football season, so don’t procrastinate with your prognostications.
Joe subscribes to ol’ Billy Shakespeare’s philosophy of picking football games. “Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard. What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.
THE GRAND EXPERIMENT
Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.
The Pro is Lee Sterling, a noted numbers man of national success. Sterling features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but The Pro fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.
No one works harder than Hero Ben Abercrombie. Nobody. Ben played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.
Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.
6-0 CHALLENGE
Last week’s three-point victory by Ohio State against Notre Dame gave us the first push against the spread of the season. That means we went another week without a 6-0 parlay winner. Sometimes the house wins even when the house doesn’t win. Take the push away, though, and we did have four perfect pickers. Congrats to J.P. Monster Truck*, Henry Patton, Michael Lightning Bug* and John McCarter for going 5-0-1. It came down to the tie-breaker to determine the overall winner. The tie-breaker instructed readers to give a nickname for Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and a panel of corrupt judges determined that Henry Patton won with his entry of Lane “Licken Chicken” Kiffin. What does that mean? It’s possible that we don’t want to know.
*Note: If you don’t give a full name with your picks, our corrupt judges will make up a funny name for you. No one has to leave a real name with their picks, but get creative so we don’t have any redundancies.
The panel of corrupted gaming officials at Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero headquarters are happy to report that a record number of 319 people took the 6-0 Challenge. Thank you to everyone for being so awesome and click the link here to make your picks for Week 5. Good luck and stay hydrated, America!
LAST WEEK
Joe: 5-1 straight up, 1-4-1 against the spread
Pro: 4-2 straight up, 3-2-1 against the spread
Hero: 4-2 straight up, 4-1-1 against the spread
Notes: The Hero might never forgive himself for picking against the Tide. It was his only miss against the spread.
THIS SEASON
Joe: 16-8 straight up, 11-12-1 against the spread
Pro: 18-6 straight up, 12-11-1 against the spread
Hero: 15-9 straight up, 12-11-1 against the spread
Notes: Joe is in need of some personal protection. Alabama fans are after him and so are the wise guys.
No.22 Florida (3-1, 1-0 SEC) at Kentucky (4-0, 1-0 SEC)
When: 11 a.m., Sat.
Where: Kroger Field, Lexington, Ky.
TV: ESPN
Series: Florida leads 53-20.
Spread: UK by 3
Trendy: Florida’s three games against FBS opponents have all been under the projected points total. The over/under for Florida at Kentucky is 44.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Kentucky sophomore Maxwell Hairston returned two interceptions for touchdowns last week against Vanderbilt. It set the school record for pick-sixes by the same player in a single game and tied the SEC record. Only six players in league history have had two interception returns for touchdowns in a single game.
Joe says: The Wildcats are a rare favorite against Florida and not surprisingly all the money moved to the Gators early in the week. Kentucky has the higher rated transfer quarterback in Devin Leary (N.C. State), but he threw two interceptions last week against Vandy and UK committed 10 penalties. I liked Florida’s toughness against Tennessee last week. It’s no easy trick keeping Tennessee’s offense to under 400 total yards. Expect a stinker of a game here. I’ll hold my nose and take the Gators.
Joe’s pick: Florida 24, Kentucky 18
Pro says: Two mediocre offenses with transfer quarterbacks, so this game might be decided by the better defense. The Kentucky defense has forced eight turnovers while the Gators just one. The Gators played poorly in their only road game this season and the favorite is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine Wildcat games. Lean Kentucky in what should be a tight game.
Pro’s pick: Kentucky 24, Florida 20
Hero says: The Wildcats are riding a two-game winning streak against the Gators and come into this home game undefeated against a weak early season schedule. Florida got a lot of credit for beating Tennessee two weeks ago, but the offense looked rough against Charlotte. This is an interesting battle of two transfer quarterbacksP Graham Mertz at Florida and Devin Leary at Kentucky. Mertz seems more like a game manager for the Gators with only four touchdown passes while the Wildcats have leaned on Leary to generate offense (nine touchdown passes and five interceptions). I really like Florida’s defense under first-year coordinator Austin Armstrong and think they can force Kentucky’s offense to make some mistakes that can give the Gator offense some good scoring opportunities. It should be a close defensive struggle in Lexington, but I think the Gators are tough enough to pull out the victory.
Hero’s pick: Florida 23, Kentucky 20
No.11 Notre Dame (4-1) at No.17 Duke (4-0)
When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, N.C.
TV: ABC
Series: Notre Dame leads 5-2.
Spread: Notre Dame by 5.5
Trendy: Duke is 3-0 against the spread this season.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: ESPN College GameDay will make its first appearance at Duke for a football game this weekend.
Joe says: It feels weird picking a football game involving Duke. Forget the hype train surrounding Colorado. If Duke wins this game, giving the Blue Devils wins against two teams that have appeared in recent College Football Playoffs, then this season of college football will officially be certifiably bonkers. I’m riding with Duke quarterback Riley Leonard and wild man Mike Elko. Duke’s defense gets it done. Wake up the ghosts of Notre Dame so they can witness an Irish nightmare.
Joe’s pick: Duke 21, Notre Dame 20
Pro says: As good as Fighting Irish quarterback Sam Hartman is as a passer, Duke quarterback Riley Leonard might be one of the top five players in college football because of his dual-threat capabilities. The Duke defense is for real and this could be the most anticipated Blue Devils’ home game in the history of the program. Duke is an amazing 12-4 against the spread their last 16 home games. Gotta back this Durham Dog!
Pro’s pick: Duke 23, Notre Dame 20
Hero says: The Irish let an opportunity slip away last week against the Buckeyes while Duke continued their undefeated season dominating UConn. Duke coach Mike Elko has done a great job rebuilding the Duke football program. Notre Dame has plenty of experience in a big-game environment so I don’t think they will be intimated at all in Durham. Transfer Irish quarterback Sam Hartman has plenty of experience playing on the road in the ACC, so he will be the difference in the game leading the Irish to a hard-fought road win.
Hero’s pick: Notre Dame 24, Duke 17
No.8 USC (4-0, 2-0) at Colorado (3-1, 0-1)
When: 11 a.m., Sat.
Where: Folsom Field, Boulder, Colo.
TV: Fox
Series: USC leads 16-0.
Spread: USC by 23
Trendy: Colorado started strong but hasn’t covered the spread in back-to-back weeks.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: With 16 touchdown passes to zero interceptions, USC quarterback Caleb Williams, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, has the highest quarterback rating in the country (223.07) by a significant margin. Michael Penix, Jr., of Washington is second (209.58).
Joe says: The bubble popped for Colorado last week in its loss to Oregon, but everyone wants a piece of the Team Coach Prime this season. Next in line is a team that’s probably better than the Ducks. USC quarterback Caleb Williams has the Deion Factor, which means he knows he’s one of the greats and can go out and show it every week. I love Colorado and Coach Prime, but they’ve created a monster and can’t back it up. Maybe next year, but this feels like an epic beat down.
Joe’s pick: USC 55, Colorado 14
Pro says: Buffs came back to earth with a thud last week getting thrashed in Eugene. Not sure I can lay over three touchdowns with USC because their defense has only been tested by two of the worst teams in the Mountain West and Pac 12 thus far. I expect Colorado to bounce back and play hard at home. It’s not like they were expected to go undefeated.
Pro’s pick: USC 45, Colorado 35
Hero says: Coach Prime and the Buffaloes were manhandled last week in Oregon but return home to host the untested USC Trojans in a rare 10 a.m. local time kickoff. Colorado does not have the depth of talent yet to challenge the Trojans for 60 minutes, but I believe the Buffaloes offense can move the ball and score some points against the Trojan defense. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams should have a huge game leading USC to another easy victory in Boulder.
Hero’s pick: USC 49, Colorado 28
No.13 LSU (3-1, 2-0) at No.20 Ole Miss (3-1, 0-1)
When: 5 p.m., Sat.
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Miss.
TV: ESPN
Series: LSU leads 65-41-4.
Spread: LSU by 2.5
Trendy: LSU’s three games against FBS opponents have all been under the projected points total. The over/under for LSU at Ole Miss is 67.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: LSU is ranked first in the SEC in points per game (42.8).
Joe says: This is a tough place for Ole Miss. Last week against Alabama represented a major letdown. Any chance to challenge for the SEC West will essentially be over with a loss to LSU. We know that LSU can rebound. Ole Miss? They’ve lost five of their last six games against SEC opponents dating back to the end of last season. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels is the highest-rated passer in the SEC. He threw for four touchdowns against Arkansas last week and led the game-winning drive. LSU is the mentally tougher team.
Joe’s pick: LSU 35, Ole Miss 31
Pro says: Lane Kiffen’s best chance to beat Nick Saban slipped away last week with an underwhelming offensive performance. His top running, Quinshon Judkins, was the bell cow back last year gaining 1,567 yards and running for 5.7 yards per carry. This year, due to poor blocking and injuries, he has only gained 201 yards and a miniscule 3.5 yards per carry. LSU’s offense is led by quarterback Jayden Daniels who has 12 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. Tigers receiver Malik Nabors has been unguardable (five touchdown catches). The right team is favored here!
Pro’s pick: LSU 41, Mississippi 27
Hero says: Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin is getting criticized heavily by the media this week after his Rebels could not beat the Tide in Tuscaloosa. The Tigers survived a big challenge against Arkansas at home, but the performance of the LSU secondary has to concern coach Brian Kelly. The atmosphere will be great in Oxford on Saturday night and the Rebels offense should be able to keep up with a potent LSU offense. In the end, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels and his receivers will make one more play than the Rebels and win another SEC West shootout.
Hero’s pick: LSU 38, Ole Miss 34
No.1 Georgia (4-0, 1-0) at Auburn (3-1, 0-1)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, Ala.
TV: CBS
Series: Georgia leads 63-56-8.
Spread: Georgia by 16
Trendy: Auburn hasn’t covered a spread since the opening week of the season against UMass.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Georgia’s high-touted defense is tied for ninth in the SEC in tackles for loss (22). The other team ranked ninth in the league in tackles behind the line of scrimmage? Auburn. Tennessee leads the SEC with 39 tackles for loss.
Joe says: Auburn needs at least 21 points to avoid an embarrassing distinction. Georgia allowed 21 points last week in its victory against UAB. I’m not sold on the Bulldogs this season, but I know that Auburn’s offense hasn’t improved at all from last season. At this point, Hugh Freeze should know what Auburn’s offense can do and, most importantly, what it can’t. Hopefully that means a closer game than expected. Let’s not forget this is a major rivalry game.
Joe’s pick: Georgia 17, Auburn 10
Pro says: The Tigers’ game against Texas A&M was way more one sided than the score due to a scoop and score Auburn defensive touchdown. It looks like Georgia has been just going through the motions as a back to back champion. Hugh Freeze has the necessary knowledge on how to attack any defense. He just doesn’t have the weapons at quarterback and receiver to keep it close here. Playing one of their rivals might finally peak the Bulldogs interest.
Pro’s pick: Georgia 35, Auburn 13
Hero says: The Auburn offense was not up to the challenge last week against Texas A&M and it doesn’t get any easier this week against Georgia. The Bulldogs have not looked as dominant so far this season, but I am sure head coach Kirby Smart will have his team ready to play at Auburn on Saturday. Auburn coach Hugh Freeze will be scheming to generate some Jordan-Hare magic this Saturday. Unfortunately, I do not think he has the roster to compete with the defending national champions yet. Auburn will play hard against their rival and maybe keep it close in the first half.
Hero’s pick: Georgia 38, Auburn 13
No.12 Alabama (3-1, 1-0) at Mississippi State (2-2, 0-2)
When: 8 p.m., Sat.
Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss.
TV: ESPN
Series: Alabama leads 85-18-3.
Spread: Alabama by 14.5
Trendy: Alabama covered its first spread of the season last week against Ole Miss.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Alabama’s offense is ranked 12th in the SEC in points per game (30.3). Only South Carolina (28.8) and Florida (27.8) are ranked lower in points per game.
Joe says: Alabama hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a game since the season opener against Middle Tennessee State. Major questions remain despite the impressive second half against Ole Miss. Don’t be surprised if the Bulldogs try to air it out. Mississippi State went back to its high-flying roots last week with quarterback Will Rogers passing for over 400 yards. State is better than its record, and this one will send Alabama back into panic mode.
Joe’s pick: Mississippi State 35, Alabama 31
Pro says: Even with Alabama playing better last week in their home win against Ole Miss I think this line should be under 10 points. The Bulldogs finally decided to throw the ball early and often last week. With 487 passing yards against South Carolina, Mississippi State is now starting to look like the offense most people expected. I still think Alabama is down a few notches from the last couple years and we haven’t seen the best Mississippi State has to offer. Playing at home versus a division rival might do the trick for all the cowbell backers.
Pro’s pick: Alabama 31, Mississippi State 23
Hero says: The Bama offense found a formula that worked in the second half against Ole Miss last week. They used a ground-and-pound running game to set up some big pass plays down the field. The Tide should be able to use this same offensive formula against the Bulldogs this week in Starkville and trust their strong defense to limit the Mississippi State offense. The Bulldogs’ path to victory would be for their defense to force several Alabama turnovers and give their offense a short field to score points against the Tide defense. I believe the Alabama offense led by quarterback Jalen Milroe will make more big plays than mistakes on Saturday night and continue the Tide’s winning streak against State.
Hero’s pick: Alabama 34, Mississippi State 17