Week 3 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero
**Editor’s Note: Joseph Goodman’s popular college football picks feature, “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero,” is adding readers to the action. Pick your Week 3 games here, and sign up for Joe’s newsletter to see how your picks compare to the experts (and Joe) as well as other readers.
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Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, bartenders, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 14th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms.
This season, for the first time ever, readers are getting in on the action. Sign up for Joe’s newsletter, “Joe Goodman’s Sports Happy Hour,” to submit your picks each week and compare your wits against the experts (and Joe). The newsletter comes out every Thursday afternoon during the football season, so don’t procrastinate with your prognostications.
Joe subscribes to ol’ Billy Shakespeare’s philosophy of picking football games. “Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard. What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.
THE GRAND EXPERIMENT
Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.
The Pro is Lee Sterling, a noted numbers man of national success. Sterling features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but The Pro fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.
No one works harder than Hero Ben Abercrombie. Nobody. Ben played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.
Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.
6-0 CHALLENGE
We’re three weeks into the season and we still haven’t had a single reader put together a 6-0 parlay with their picks. Turns out, picking games against the spread is pretty tough. Take the 6-0 challenge this week, and if you go 6-0 we’ll give you a shout out in Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero. Click the link here and make your picks for the week by filling out the form.
LAST WEEK
Joe: 4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread
Pro: 5-1 straight up, 2-4 against the spread
Hero: 4-2 straight up, 2-4 against the spread
Notes: Joe picked Texas to cover against Alabama, and it carried him to victory on a tough week for everyone. Pro nailed Miami’s upset of Texas A&M.
THIS SEASON
Joe: 8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread
Pro: 9-3 straight up, 4-8 against the spread
Hero: 8-4 straight up, 6-6 against the spread
Notes: Joe is in the black and he’s eyeing a new Fender Stratocaster with his winnings. Joe only plays the hits, and now it’s on to the picks. And don’t forget to make your own!
South Alabama (1-1) at Oklahoma State (2-0)
When: 6 p.m., Sat.
Where: Boone-Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Okla.
TV: Big 12/ESPN+
Series: Oklahoma State leads 2-0.
Spread: Oklahoma State by 7
Trendy: Dating back to last season, South Alabama has failed to cover the spread against its last three FBS opponents.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Want to feel less than young? This is Mike Gundy’s 19th season as the head coach of Oklahoma State.
Joe says: The Jags’ Week 1 loss to Tulane was a disappointment, but the Green Wave is a good team worthy of the Top 25. Oklahoma State only returns two starters on defense from 2022, and I’m not sure what to make of the Pokes’ victory at Arizona State. ASU quarterback Jaden Rashada looked pretty bad. I have a feeling that Oklahoma State will be looking past South Alabama here. Big mistake. Rolling with the Jags straight up. Let’s get crazy.
Joe’s pick: South Alabama 33, Oklahoma State 28
Pro says: The Cowboys must not have much trust in their quarterbacks because they rotated three in their win last week against Arizona State. Those three quarterbacks accumulated just 191 passing yards. South Alabama returns nine starters on both offense and defense from last year but laid an egg against Tulane, turning the ball over five times. This is basically the same team that lost 32-31 last year on the road to UCLA. To the wire!
Pro’s pick: Oklahoma State 27, South Alabama 24
Hero says: The Cowboys’ offense has been struggling so far this season and is averaging only 27 points per game against below average competition. The lack of firepower on offense for OSU gives the Jags an opening to pull an upset if their offense, led by quarterback Carter Bradley, can avoid turnovers (three interceptions and three fumbles lost in two games). The Cowboys are still playing good defense this season, so I expect them to pull out a close victory at home.
Hero’s pick: Oklahoma State 28, South Alabama 23
Louisiana (1-1) at UAB (1-1)
When: 6 p.m., Sat.
Where: Protective Stadium, Birmingham
TV: ESPN+
Series: UAB leads 4-3.
Spread: UAB by 1.
Trendy: Louisiana is 0-4 against the spread against non-conference opponents since the beginning of last season.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: UAB’s game notes point out this week that UAB quarterback Jacob Zeno leads the nation in completions per game (35.5) and is second in completion percentage (85.5 percent).
Joe says: No complaints about UAB’s offense. The defense? Different story. There’s a lot of work to do between now and the beginning of conference play. The loss against Georgia Southern revealed a lot. UAB surrendered up over 450 yards to a team in the Sun Belt. Well, here comes another Sun Belt opponent, and I’m not sure that the Blazers’ defense could even stop a good FCS opponent at this point. Give me UAB at home, but if the Blazers lose this one it’s going to be a long season.
Joe’s pick: UAB 42, Louisiana 38
Pro says: UAB first-year coach Trent Dilfer was left with a gem in Jacob Zeno (71-of-84 for 676 yards and five touchdowns through two games), but the rest of the Blazers’ roster seems less than stellar. Cajuns’ quarterback Ben Wooldridge was more than good enough last week against Old Dominion, accounting for three touchdowns. Neither team plays very good defense. I’ll take the more experienced quarterback and coaching staff in a nail-biter.
Pro’s pick: Louisiana 31, UAB 27
Hero says: Blazers’ quarterback Jacob Zeno had another good game at Ga. Southern, throwing for 385 yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, the UAB defense could not stop the Eagles’ offense and gave up 49 points on the road. The Ragin’ Cajuns also bring an effective offense to town led by senior quarterback Ben Wooldridge (508 yards passing and five touchdown passes in two games). I am very nervous about the Blazers’ defense getting enough stops to win this UAB home game, but in the end I think Coach Dilfer’s offense can outscore Louisiana at Protective Stadium on Saturday night.
Hero’s pick: UAB 38, Louisiana 34
No.14 LSU (1-1) at Mississippi State (2-0)
When: 11 a.m., Sat.
Where: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, Miss.
TV: ESPN
Series: LSU leads 77-36-3.
Spread: LSU by 10.
Trendy: LSU is 0-3 against the spread in its last three true road games dating back to the 2022 season.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: A victory for Mississippi State would make new coach Zach Arnett the first coach in Mississippi State history to start off 4-0. The Bulldogs won their bowl game last season after Arnett was promoted to head coach following the death of Mike Leach.
Joe says: We miss Mike Leach, but it’s a new era of offense in Starkville. State quarterback Will Rogers only attempted 17 passes in last week’s overtime victory against Arizona. Three of the passes went for touchdowns. I like Mississippi State’s balanced approach and the Bulldogs’ defense will be ready for one of Davis Wade Stadium’s biggest games of the season. I’m tempted to pick the upset here after LSU’s ugly loss to Florida State. This feels like it could be one of the best games of Week 3. Hail State!
Joe’s pick: Mississippi State 24, LSU 21
Pro says: The Bulldogs jumped out to a 13-0 lead last year and then LSU roared back to win 31-16. Even though LSU lost their opener to FSU, the Tigers appear to be more talented than last year. Mississippi State appears less talented and is led by a new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay from Appalachian State. Unless the Bulldogs hit on numerous vertical passing plays they appear to be in trouble against a squad led by quarterback Jayden Daniels. He thrives on big plays. Sometimes you gotta lay it to play it!
Pro’s pick: LSU 37, Mississippi State 20
Hero says: This game features two very experienced quarterbacks in Will Rogers for MSU and Jayden Daniels for LSU. Rogers is having to adjust to a new, balanced, pro-set offense installed by first-year State coach Will Arnett. The Bulldogs are running for more yards per game than passing yards (222 running and 195 passing). Even though the Bulldogs have a good defense, I believe State will have a hard time slowing down the Daniels-led Tigers. It will be interesting to see how effective the new-look Bulldogs’ offense will be in passing situations against a relentless LSU pass rush led by linebacker Harold Perkins, Jr.
Hero’s pick: LSU 31, Mississippi State 23
South Carolina (1-1, 0-0) at No.1 Georgia (2-0, 0-0)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Ga.
TV: CBS
Series: Georgia leads 54-19-2.
Spread: Georgia by 27.5.
Trendy: Georgia has won three in a row in the series.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: The Bulldogs have won 19 games in a row dating back to the 2021 College Football Playoff semifinals. That’s a school record. The last team to defeat Georgia is Alabama in the 2021 SEC championship game.
Joe says: I guess this is what goes for a tough game on Georgia’s schedule. The Gamecocks have Spencer Rattler at quarterback, but Georgia’s pass rush isn’t going to give him much time to work. South Carolina looked flat in their season-opening loss to North Carolina, but that experience should give the Gamecocks something to draw upon. This one will be closer than expected.
Joe’s pick: Georgia 33, South Carolina 14
Pro says: Bulldogs rattled Spencer Rattler last year in a 48-7 romp. Since then he beat No.5 Tennessee 63-38, No.8 Clemson 31-30 and put up 38 points in a close loss to No.21 Notre Dame in the bowl game. Is Georgia good? I think so, but maybe down a notch or two from last year, and you always have to pay a premium of about an extra field goal when backing a Top five team. The Gamecocks may not be as good as last year, but should play better than in their opening week loss to North Carolina.
Pro’s pick: Georgia 42, South Carolina 24
Hero says: CBS kicks off their final season of SEC coverage this week with a potentially interesting matchup of the defending national champion Bulldogs and the upset-minded Gamecocks. The Georgia defense should be up to their normal excellent standards and will probably keep South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler uncomfortable all day. The Georgia offense probably has more weapons than last year, but it will be interesting to see how new Dawgs’ quarterback Carson Beck performs in his first real challenge of the season. The Gamecocks will probably land a few punches in this game, but it is hard to call the upset in Athens.
Hero’s pick: Georgia 34, South Carolina 13
No.11 Tennessee (2-0) at Florida (1-1)
When: 6 p.m., Sat.
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla.
TV: ESPN
Series: Florida leads 31-21.
Spread: Tennessee by 6.5.
Trendy: Sixteen of the last 18 in this series have gone to Florida, but the Vols won a 38-33 thriller last season in Knoxville.
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Tennessee threw for 228 yards last week against Austin Peay, and also ran for 228 yards.
Joe says: Night game at The Swamp against a rival? It doesn’t get much better in college football. Florida is in a bad way, but this will still be a tough test for Tennessee and quarterback Joe Milton III. If the game is close in the second half then momentum will carry the Gators. All that being said, Florida has lost its last four games against FBS opponents dating back to the 2022 season: Vanderbilt, Florida State, Oregon State and Utah. Florida will be desperate, but give me the Vols’ dynamic offense in the end.
Joe’s pick: Tennessee 28, Florida 24
Pro says: If you expected Florida with Wisconsin transfer-quarterback Graham Mertz to go into Salt Lake City and beat Utah Week 1, then you probably were expecting too much. Florida was backed up almost the whole game with terrible field position and also committed nine penalties. Mertz looked better last week. I’m not so sure Tennessee is the right play with new quarterback Joe Milton and a wide receiver crew that seems to be a few levels down from last year’s group. Gators have won 16 of the last 18 in this series and covered 14 of the last 18. I’ll ride with Florida at home here!
Pro’s pick: Florida 31, Tennessee 27
Hero says: The Vols finally beat the Gators last year at home but so far this year UT has not been the offensive juggernaut that they were last season. Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III has a cannon for an arm and can make big plays in the passing game, so the aggressive Florida defense will need to force some errors to keep the Gators in the game. The Florida offense, led by transfer quarterback Graham Mertz, struggled in their first game against a strong Utah defense but was able to run all over McNeese last week. I think an improved Volunteers’ defense will be key to ensuring that Tennessee pulls out a victory in The Swamp.
Hero’s pick: Tennessee 31, Florida 23
No.10 Alabama (1-1) at South Florida (1-1)
When: 2:30 p.m., Sat.
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla
TV: ABC
Series: Alabama leads 1-0.
Spread: Alabama by 32.
Trendy: South Florida hasn’t defeated an FBS opponent since Oct.23, 2021 (Temple).
SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: FAMU quarterback Jeremy Moussa passed for 374 yards against South Florida last week.
Joe says: I didn’t realize how awful South Florida has been over the last few years until I started looking through the record books. It’s a disaster. Alex Golesh, previously the offensive coordinator for Tennessee, is the new head coach. Good luck to the Bulls on being the first overmatched team to catch Alabama after its embarrassing home loss to Texas.
Joe’s pick: Alabama 56, South Florida 18
Pro says: Bama’s last visit to a non-Power 5 school was all the way back in 1992 when they throttled Tulsa 37-0. I would not want to have gone through practice the week after Alabama lost by 10 points at home to future SEC opponent Texas. Expect Bama to score early and often and not let up until they get up by 40 or more points. South Florida only outgained FAMU 393-322 last week and even with a 5-0 turnover advantage only won by 14 points.
Pro’s pick: Alabama 58, South Florida 10
Hero says: Bama has certainly developed a pattern of struggling (or even losing games) against good opponents while destroying weaker opponents. I think the trend will continue this week in Tampa as at least two Tide quarterbacks will lead multiple touchdown drives against a rebuilding South Florida squad. The Bulls do have a good dual-threat quarterback in freshman Byrum Brown that could make some big plays against a Tide defense that looked confused last week on many occasions against Texas. Overall, it should be another dominating performance by Alabama over a weaker opponent in front of a pro-Bama crowd and many local high school recruits from the area.
Hero’s pick: Alabama 49, South Florida 13