Week 1 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero

Week 1 picks are in for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero

**Editor’s Note: Joseph Goodman’s popular college football picks feature, “Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero,” is looking for readers to join the action. Sign up for Joe’s newsletter to pick against the experts (and Joe) as well as other readers. Leaders will be featured each week in the newsletter, which hits email inboxes every week on Thursday afternoon.

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Celebrated from coast to coast by sports fans, bag men, bartenders, mafia kings and mathematicians, Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero is the greatest resource for college football shenanigans on the internet. This is the 14th season for Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero in its various forms.

This season, for the first time ever, readers are getting in on the action. Sign up for Joe’s newsletter, “Joe Goodman’s Sports Happy Hour,” to submit your picks each week and compare your wits against the experts (and Joe). The newsletter comes out every Thursday afternoon during the football season, so don’t procrastinate with your prognostications.

Joe subscribes to ol’ Billy Shakespeare’s philosophy of picking football games. “Jesters do oft prove prophets,” mused the Great Bard. What is Joe vs. the Pro and the Hero? Consider it a gift to society.

THE GRAND EXPERIMENT

Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for AL.com. What happens when a sportswriter picks some of the toughest games of the week and goes head-to-head against a sharp and a football expert with a Harvard education? It’s a gift for college football fans every week in the state where college football is like a religion.

The Pro is Lee Sterling, a noted numbers man of national success. Sterling features his best picks on his website, ParamountSports.com, but The Pro fearlessly picks the most difficult college games of the week against Joe and the Hero. Joe is just a hack and a slacker who everyone loves to hate.

No one works harder than Hero Ben Abercrombie. Nobody. Ben played football at Hoover High School and Harvard, and he’s working every day to regain his ability to walk. He’s a student at Harvard, and an inspiration to all. To thank him, we want everyone to stand up for Ben and show him some love.

Show Joe no love at all. Besmirch his name at small dinner parties, and troll him on Twitter.

LAST YEAR

Joe: 53-31 straight up, 42-39-3 against the spread

Pro: 51-33 straight up, 34-47-3 against the spread

Hero: 61-23 straight up, 41-40-3 against the spread

Notes: Joe went into Championship Week in 2022 with a commanding lead against the spread, but nearly lost it all after taking a 1-5 bath. The Hero scored the straight-up crown with ease despite his penchant for always rolling with the Tide. As trends go, Joe has won the competition against the spread two years in a row. On to the picks!

Former Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Graham Mertz attempts a pass against Michigan State during the 2022 season. Mertz is now the quarterback for the Florida Gators. (Joel Bissell | MLive.com)MLive.com

Florida (0-0) at No.14 Utah (0-0)

When: 7 p.m., Thurs.

Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah

TV: ESPN

Series: Florida leads 2-0.

Spread: Utah by 4.

Trendy: Florida lost three in a row to end the 2022 season.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Utah has gone undefeated at home in three of its last four seasons (2022, 2021, 2019).

Joe says: Florida flew to Dallas on Tuesday to get ahead of the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The disruption in schedule is less than ideal and the Gators already had plenty to worry about after going 6-7 last season. Everyone down South is talking up UF quarterback Graham Mertz (Wisconsin transfer), but the big story nationally is the health of Utah quarterback Cam Rising. Will he be ready to play after tearing his ACL in the Rose Bowl? On a side note, Johnny Utah once tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl, but he played for Ohio State.

Joe’s pick: Utah 31, Florida 21

Pro says: If Cam Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe were for sure playing, then I’d back Utah. The Utes are playing at home with revenge for last year’s 29-26 loss. Utah used to be ranked among the best at special teams but the last two years the Utes have been north of No.100. They’ll need some good field position and the ability to convert when they reach Gator territory. Florida transfer quarterback Graham Mertz must have been impressive in the first handful of practices because Billy Napier named him the starter quicker than it takes to turn on a light switch. To the wire!

Pro’s pick: Utah 17, Florida 16

Hero says: Cam Rising is recovering from ACL surgery, and everyone is wondering if he’s healthy enough to play in the Utes’ season opener against Florida. I think he’ll play, but even if he doesn’t then Utah will be able to run against Florida’s defense behind what is expected to be one of the best offensive lines in the country. Florida will also try to establish a run game and if Utah’s defense successfully stops it, Florida’s new transfer quarterback, who was inconsistent at Wisconsin, will struggle against a strong Utah defense.

Hero’s pick: Utah 27, Florida 20

Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III rolls out

Tennessee quarterback Joe Milton III rolls out during an SEC game against Vanderbilt in 2022. Milton and his canon for an arm are taking over Tennessee’s high-flying offense this season.(AP Photo/Wade Payne)

No.12 Tennessee (0-0) vs. No.12 Virginia (0-0)

When: 11 a.m., Sat.

Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.

TV: ABC

Series: Tennessee leads 3-1.

Spread: Tennessee by 28.

Trendy: Tennessee is coming off an 11-win season, the Vols’ first 11-win season in 21 years.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Tennessee has won 13 of its last 16 games under third-year Vols coach Josh Heupel.

Joe says: The SEC is really trying to promote this game as some kind of big rivalry. Just keep that in mind when there’s a push to include Virginia in the SEC. There’s just no way a Virginia team that lost its starting quarterback to the transfer portal is going to be able to keep up with Tennessee’s offense. Vols quarterback Joe Milton has been hyped as a Heisman hopeful, and while we’re reserving judgment on that, the only question here is whether or not SEC commissioner Greg Sankey escorts Virginia’s players off the team bus.

Joe’s pick: Tennessee 45, Virginia 13

Pro says: The Vols are in a much better spot than two years ago, but replacing quarterback Hendon Hooker and receiver Jalin Hyatt is almost impossible. Joe Milton is fine but he’s not a guy I want to trust as my starter for 12, 13 or 14 games. Virginia isn’t going to be great, but I love the defense led by eight returning starters and a defensive coordinator (John Rudzinski) in his second year from Air Force. Rudzinski has had all off season to prepare and should be able to come up with a scheme to limit the Tennessee offense.

Pro’s pick: Tennessee 38, Virginia 16

Hero says: Tennessee is coming off an electric 11-2 season behind a prolific offense that was almost impossible to stop while Virginia finished a forgettable 3-7. Joe Milton steps in as Tennessee’s new quarterback with Hendon Hooker moving on to the NFL. I expect the 6-5 flamethrower to pick up right where Hooker left off. Tennessee’s fast-paced offense will have its way with Virginia’s less than impressive defense and score at will while Virginia’s offense will struggle to keep up against a scary Tennessee pass rush. Tennessee will dominate every aspect of the game and send Virginia home early in a blowout.

Hero’s pick: Tennessee 49, Virginia 13

Deion Sanders Colorado

Colorado head coach Deion Sanders is taking over 50 transfers into the 2023 season. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski, File)AP

Colorado (0-0) at No.17 TCU (0-0)

When: 11 a.m., Sat.

Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

TV: Fox

Series: TCU leads 1-0.

Spread: TCU by 21.

Trendy: TCU has won 20 of its last 21 season openers.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Deion Sanders welcomed 51 transfers to Colorado in the offseason, including 13 players from the SEC.

Joe says: TCU played in the 2023 national championship game, but Deion Sanders is the reason everyone will be watching this game. Coach Prime to Colorado was the biggest story in college football this offseason until the Pac-12 went belly up. Of course, the Pac-12′s demise began when Colorado decided to move back to the Big 12. We love a good Western saga, and this high noon hootenanny will be closer than expected.

Joe’s pick: TCU 28, Colorado 21

Pro says: Coach Prime has brought excitement to Boulder but the product on the field isn’t going to be very good. Any talent that was on the roster last season has hit the road. More than half the roster didn’t make their way to Boulder until the spring and Deion’s son Shedeur has a bare cupboard of receivers.

Pro’s pick: TCU 41, Colorado 13

Hero says: The arrival of Coach Prime and his large amount of transfer players has everyone interested to see what the Buffalos look like in their first game against TCU. Buffs new quarterback Shedeur Sanders is talented, but how will he handle the jump from FCS to FBS? TCU had an incredible season last year, but is having to replace Heisman finalist Max Duggan, stud running back Kendre Miller, and offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. Even though they lost a lot of key talent, they will have talented quarterback Chandler Morris, who started the first game for TCU last year before getting injured. Transfer running Trey Sanders of Alabama will also help. Colorado will start the game fast, but TCU’s talent will pull away in the second half.

Hero’s pick: TCU 38, Colorado 21

B.J. Ojulari, Edge, LSU

Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis scrambles under pressure against former LSU defensive end BJ Ojulari during the season opener for the Noles and Tigers in 2022. Travis is back for the Noles, which are a trendy pick to make the College Football Playoff in 2023. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP

No.5 LSU (0-0) vs. No.8 FSU (0-0)

When: 6:30 p.m., Sun.

Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Fla.

TV: ABC

Series: FSU leads 8-2.

Spread: LSU by 2.5.

Trendy: Florida State has won five in a row in the series.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: FSU is 10-0-2 in Orlando all-time. Noles have won nine in a row in the city of Mickey Mouse.

Joe says: Both of these teams are loaded and feature solid quarterbacks. I’m partial to Jayden Daniels, but Jordan Travis actually threw for more touchdowns and yards in 2022. Is FSU back? The Noles enter 2023 with the nation’s longest streak of games of at least 35 points of offense (six), but also an unhealthy fear of being passed by UCF in status. FSU will want to remind Orlando that the biggest Florida rodents will always live in Tallahassee.

Joe’s pick: FSU 27, LSU 24

Pro says: Both teams are a tad over-ranked but they each hit the transfer portal hard and have better rosters than last year. Both quarterbacks can make plays with their arms and legs, but Daniels might be a tad better with more upside. LSU head coach Brian Kelly is in a better spot than last year in his first game and playing with revenge could be what gets the Tigers over the top here.

Pro’s pick: LSU 34, Florida State 30

Hero says: This was a fun game last year that ended with FSU blocking an LSU extra point for the win. Both teams are loaded with talent and have sold quarterbacks in Jordan Travis (FSU) and Jayden Daniels (LSU), who both put pressure on opposing defenses in the air and on the ground. Along with Joseph Travis at quarterback, FSU has a strong rushing attack and LSU is going to miss one of their best run stuffers in defensive lineman Mason Smith. This will be a back-and-forth game, but even without Mason Smith LSU has enough talent to slow down FSU’s rushing attack and find a way to win.

Hero’s pick: LSU 34, FSU 31

South Alabama football practice

South Alabama running back La’Damian Webb is a leading contender for Sun Belt Player of the Year in 2023. (Mike Kittrell/AL.com)

South Alabama (0-0) at No.24 Tulane (0-0)

When: 7 p.m., Sat.

Where: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, La.

TV: ESPNU

Series: Tied 1-1.

Spread: Tulane by 6.

Trendy: Tulane won 12 games in 2022, and finished the season with consecutive wins against SMU, Cincinnati, UCF and USC.

Joe says: I absolutely love this matchup and wish they would play every season as a rivalry game. Call it the Fight For Mardi Gras Bragging Rights. Wordy? Maybe so. Open to suggestions. I feel like a USA-Tulane rivalry trophy has a lot of potential. These two teams feel evenly matched. South Alabama returns 19 of 21 starters from last season’s 10-win breakout. The Jags will be no pushovers this season. Everyone is in love with Tulane, but I’m riding with South and its tank of a running back, La’Damian Webb.

Joe’s pick: South Alabama 27, Tulane 24

Pro says: The Jaguars had a dream 10-3 season last year. The problem is outside of defeating Louisiana by three points they tore through the dregs of the Sun Belt Conference. Tulane handled USC in one of the most exciting Cotton Bowl games ever and has assembled a ton of talent to replace eight starters. Throw in three transfer defensive players with two-plus years of starting experience and this Tulane team is probably more talented than last year’s AAC Champs. Lay it!

Pro’s pick: Tulane 30, South Alabama 21

Hero says: A matchup between two of the best Group of Five teams in the nation, and with both teams coming off great seasons last year. Tulane is returning star quarterback Michael Pratt and leading rusher Tyjae Spears along with four of last year’s starting offensive linemen. South Alabama also returns key offensive firepower with starting quarterback Carter Bradley, leading rusher La’Damian Webb, and leading receiver Devin Voisin. This will be a competitive game in New Orleans, but Tulane will pull away in the Fourth quarter.

Hero’s pick: Tulane 38, South Alabama 27

Alabama

Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe throws in Alabama’s A-Day scrimmage game. Milroe is Alabama’s most experienced quarterback after playing in reserve for former Alabama quarterback Bryce Young in 2022. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)AP

MTSU (0-0) at No.4 Alabama (0-0)

When: 6:30 p.m., Sat.

Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa

TV: SEC Network

Series: Alabama leads 3-0.

Spread: Alabama by 39.5.

Trendy: Crimson Tide has won 20-straight at home.

SUPER STAT OF THE WEEK: Alabama has won 56 in a row against non-conference opponents in the regular season.

Joe says: The big question for Alabama is at the quarterback position. Alabama coach Nick Saban will give Jalen Milroe his shot to win the job in the first half. Like I wrote in Wednesday’s column, the quarterback who starts the second half against Middle will probably start the game against Texas. Middle likes to air it out, so expect plenty of opportunities for Alabama’s cornerbacks to show off how improved they are from last season.

Joe’s pick: Alabama 48, MTSU 10

Pro says: I’ve seen projected Blue Raider starting quarterback Nicholas Vattiato play in high school. Nice kid with a lot of courage but he’s a mid-major backup. If he were on Bama’s team he’d be the fifth-string clipboard holder. The question is can they score more than a touchdown on the Tide defense? Probably not! With both Bama quarterbacks — Jalen Milroe and Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner — looking to impress, I don’t expect them to take their foot off the gas pedal.

Pro’s pick: Alabama 58, Middle Tennessee State 6

Hero says: Alabama is coming off a season that to their standards felt like a disappointment, but Nick Saban hired new offensive coordinator Tommy Reese and new defensive coordinator Kevin Steele, hoping to recapture their physical style of play and make the opposition quit. Many questions surround this team, but what everyone is watching is how the quarterbacks Jalen Milroe, Ty Simpson, and Tyler Buchner will perform. Middle Tennessee is a pesky team that upset Miami last year, but Alabama is still Alabama. I don’t think this game will be close, but with so many questions about the Crimson Tide, this game will be fun to watch.

Hero’s pick: Alabama 48, MTSU 10