The biggest prize in North American soccer is on the line Sunday, and to nobody’s surprise, it comes down to the United States vs. Mexico.

The continent’s biggest soccer powers will face off in the CONCACAF Gold Cup Final at Houston’s NRG Stadium in the last competitive match (excluding friendlies) for each squad before they co-host the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

The United States is playing without stars who are expected to be starters next summer, including Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and Tim Weah, for various reasons. Mexico has more of its regulars but is also not at full strength (Jesus Corona is playing in the FIFA Club World Cup).

Despite the absences, the rivalry will be electric on Sunday with a trophy on the line. Mexico is a slight favorite. Here are our USA vs. Mexico Gold Cup Final predictions, picks and best bets.

USA vs. Mexico predictions and best bets

• USA ‘to lift Cup’: +116 at FanDuel
• Total goals regular time Under 2.5: -170 at Caesars
• Player to score or assists – Diego Luna: +450 at bet365

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Mexico used to own this rivalry and still has the all-time edge, but since El Tri won the 2019 Gold Cup final, the Americans have been on the front foot in competitive matches with a 5-0-1 record.

The turning point occurred when the US won the CONCACAF Nations League Final in June 2021 and the Gold Cup Final two months later. The US followed that with a win in a FIFA World Cup Qualifier in November 2021.

International soccer differs from other sports in that teams may not face their biggest rivals more than once a year. Despite that, momentum matters. Right now, the Americans have it.

It is not ideal that the U.S. is playing without so many players who will feature in the 2026 World Cup, but the squad is playing well anyway. The Americans still have Tyler Adams, Chris Richards and Malik Tillman.

Plus, energetic midfielder Diego Luna is having a great tournament with three goals and two assists in five games, including a first-half brace in the semifinal win over Guatemala.

The U.S. also has the betting odds on its side. Mexico is the favorite, which gives the U.S. better value. El Tri could certainly win, but the value isn’t there unless you’re willing to bet them on the three-way moneyline (+155 at DraftKings Sportsbook).

Regardless of the wager you want to make, pay close attention to the market because soccer betting is different. If you pick either team or the draw on the three-way moneyline, your bet is for the first 90 minutes only.

The Gold Cup final will feature two 45-minute halves and, if tied at the end of regulation, two 15-minute periods of extra time. If tied after extra time, a penalty shootout will determine the champion.

If you bet on the U.S. to win on the three-way moneyline, and the match is tied after 90 minutes, you lose your bet even if the U.S. wins in extra time or penalties.

If you don’t want to mess with those details, look for the betting market titled “to lift the cup” or “to lift the trophy.” That way, you’re betting on the champion regardless of when it is determined.

Mexico’s strength in the first five games has been its defense. El Tri conceded two goals in its group stage opener and zero in its next four matches. Mexico limited Honduras and Saudi Arabia to one on-target shot apiece in the knockout round.

The Americans scored at least two goals in four of five matches, but they have yet to face a defense as strong as Mexico’s. That makes the Under a strong play. This betting market only counts goals scored in the first 90 minutes.

If any American player can solve the Mexico defense, it is Luna. He is as energetic as it gets in the attacking midfield role, a perfect attribute for scoring or assisting. He has three goals in his last two games and has two assists in this tournament.

USA vs. Mexico moneyline odds analysis

Why Mexico could win as the favorite

Best three-way moneyline odds: +155 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Momentum matters, but Mexico’s defense is the antidote to squash it. El Tri has been great on the back end, and if those players keep their form, it will be the difference on Sunday.

As fun as the U.S. has been to watch, it doesn’t have a player who has scored big goals like Mexico’s Raul Jimenez. In 116 appearances, the Fulham player has 41 goals for his country, including the winner in Wednesday’s 1-0 semifinal triumph over Honduras. He’s the kind of player who can make a difference in a final.

Why USA could win as the underdog

Best three-way moneyline odds: +220 at DraftKings Sportsbook

The U.S. may be missing most of its top players, but that doesn’t hurt as much as it seems. It means players like Luna and goalkeeper Matt Freese have opportunities to play their way into the World Cup squad. The underdog mentality never hurt anybody either.

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