Updating Sun Belt Conference men’s basketball race with 1 week left in regular season
We’re one week away from the start of the Sun Belt Conference basketball tournament, and there are still numerous scenarios for who will claim the all-important Top 2 (and Top 4) seeds.
James Madison has moved into sole possession of first place in the league after going 2-0 last week, while Arkansas State, South Alabama and Troy all went 1-1. But the Dukes haven’t locked up anything yet, given how the various tiebreakers might play out.
Appalachian State and Marshall — who are two games back of the lead — also remain in strong contention for a Top 4 seed. The Sun Belt’s unusual tournament set-up and its likely status as a one-bid league for the NCAA tournament means finishing in the top four in the standings goes a long way toward a less-difficult postseason road.
Here are how things stand among the six Sun Belt men’s basketball contenders as we head into the final week of the regular season (games are Tuesday/Wednesday and Friday this week to give everyone an extra day to travel to Pensacola, Fla., for the tournament):
James Madison (12-4)
Remaining games: at Louisiana-Monroe (2/25), at Texas State (2/28)
Has tiebreaker on: Troy (1-0), Arkansas State (1-0)
Loses tiebreaker to: Appalachian State (0-2), South Alabama (0-1)
Split with: Marshall (1-1)
The Dukes — defending Sun Belt tournament champions — are in great shape to finish in the top 2 if they win at least once this week. Going 2-0 would give JMU the outright regular-season championship. That would mean a bye all the way to the semifinals of the conference tournament, which take place on Sunday, March 9.
South Alabama (11-5)
Remaining road games: at Southern Miss (2/26), home vs. Louisiana (2/28)
Has tiebreaker on: Arkansas State (2-0), James Madison (1-0), Marshall (1-0)
Loses tiebreaker to: None
Split with: Troy (1-1)
Note: The Jaguars’ overtime loss to Texas State on Saturday was a painful one, mainly because it limits their ability to win the Sun Belt regular-season championship for the first time since 2008. However, sweep the Golden Eagles and Ragin’ Cajuns this week and they are a virtual lock to be a Top 2 seed because they hold head-to-head tiebreakers on everyone but Troy and App State, and would win the other tiebreakers over the Trojans and Mountaineers.
Arkansas State (11-5)
Remaining games: at Louisiana (2/26), at Louisiana-Monroe (2/28)
Has tiebreaker on: Appalachian State (1-0)
Loses tiebreaker to: South Alabama (0-2), Marshall (0-1), James Madison (0-1)
Split with: Troy (1-1)
Note: The preseason Sun Belt favorite Red Wolves need utter chaos to finish in the Top 2, likely a two-way with App State for either the No. 1 or No. 2 spot. They lose tiebreakers to everyone else, so they might not get into the Top 4 even if they win out.
Troy (11-5)
Remaining games: at Texas State (2/25), at Southern Miss (2/28)
Has tiebreaker on: Marshall (1-0), Appalachian State (1-0)
Loses tiebreaker to: James Madison (0-1)
Split with: Arkansas State (1-1), South Alabama (1-1)
Note: The Trojans’ only head-to-head tiebreakers are with teams behind them in the standings, which would make finishing in the Top 2 pretty difficult to pull off. However, win out and they’re a good bet for the Top 4 thanks to having at least one win over South Alabama (which none of the others still in contention have).
Appalachian State (10-6)
Remaining games: at Georgia Southern (2/25), at Marshall (2/28)
Has tiebreaker on: James Madison (2-0)
Loses tiebreaker to: Arkansas State (0-1), Troy (0-1), Marshall (0-1)
Split with: None
Note: The loss to Marshall on Saturday gave the Mountaineers a near-impossibly rugged road to the Top 2, and they’ll need some help to finish in the Top 4. If somehow App State ends up tied with JMU, that head-to-head sweep could loom large in the bracket.
Marshall (10-6)
Remaining home games: at Old Dominion (2/25), home vs. Appalachian State (2/28)
Has tiebreaker on: Arkansas State (1-0), Appalachian State (1-0)
Loses tiebreaker to: Troy (0-1), South Alabama (0-1)
Split with: James Madison (1-1)
Note: Like App State, the Thundering Herd aren’t likely to finish in the Top 2, but have some handy tiebreakers for the Top 4 assuming they sweep both games this week. If JMU wins the regular-season championship, that head-to-head win could break ties with everyone but South Alabama for a Top 4 spot.
This week’s schedule
(All times Central and all games on ESPN+ unless noted)
Tuesday, Feb. 25
Old Dominion at Marshall, 6 p.m.
Appalachian State at Georgia Southern, 6 p.m.
James Madison at Louisiana-Monroe, 6:30 p.m.
Troy at Texas State, 7 p.m.
Wednesday, Feb. 26
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina, 6:30 p.m.
Arkansas State at Louisiana, 7:30 p.m.
South Alabama at Southern Miss, 7:30 p.m.
Friday, Feb. 27
Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina, 6:30 p.m.
Arkansas State at Louisiana-Monroe, 6:30 p.m.
Georgia State at Georgia Southern, 7 p.m.
Louisiana at South Alabama, 7 p.m.
James Madison at Texas State, 7 p.m.
Troy at Southern Miss, 7:30 p.m.
Appalachian State at Marshall, 8 p.m. (ESPNU)