More than a league title is on the line when Boise State hosts UNLV in the Mountain West Conference championship game. The winner also will earn a berth in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff — perhaps the biggest stage on which any Mountain West team has appeared.

Friday’s game on the Broncos’ famous blue turf is a rematch of the Oct. 25 game in Las Vegas that Boise State won 29-24 as a 4-point favorite. The game went under the total of 64 points.

The Broncos (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) are 3.5- or 4-point favorites over UNLV (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) in the championship game. The over/under is 57.5 points. Here are my expert UNLV vs. Boise State predictions and best bets for the Mountain West Conference championship game.

UNLV vs. Boise State predictions and best bets

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

What a fitting end to the 2024 Mountain West Conference season. UNLV and Boise State were easily the best two teams in the league, so any other matchup in the championship game would have been disappointing.

Boise State won the regular season matchup and covered the point spread despite a season-low 3.9 yards per carry from star running back Ashton Jeanty. That cover came by a single point, and I expect this rematch to be close, too.

These teams are not separated by much in the conference-only statistics, so you can’t glean much from how these teams did against common opponents. One stat that does stick out, however, is UNLV’s rush defense.

The Rebels held seven conference opponents to an average of 90.7 rushing yards per game. One of their best performances came against Jeanty, who averaged at least five yards per carry in 10 of 12 games and 7.3 ypc on the season.

Because UNLV’s performance in that category was not a fluke, I like the Rebels’ chances of limiting Jeanty again. If they do that, it will be difficult for Boise State to dominate the game, giving UNLV a great opportunity to keep the final score within a field goal.

Jeanty surpassed 173.5 rushing yards in five of the first six games. The only one in which he came up short, he had 11 carries for 127 yards against FCS foe Portland State. He averaged 9.9 yards per carry on 126 attempts in the first six games. And 5.6 yards per carry on 186 attempts in the next six.

Those are great numbers in a vacuum, but the second half has been much slower than the first. The wear and tear of 312 carries in 12 games likely has caught up to Jeanty. He can have a great game on Friday without surpassing 173.5 rushing yards against the MWC’s best rushing defense.

UNLV vs. Boise State moneyline odds analysis

Why Boise State could win as the favorite

Best odds: -184 at FanDuel Sportsbook

Here’s one thing that says a lot about how great the Broncos have been this season: They beat UNLV on the road despite Jeanty having his worst game. They were 1-3 against the spread in their last four games, but won all four. That’s all that matters to them on Friday night.

Quarterback Maddux Madsen has been important in the second half of the season. He has had a sub-par completion percentage more often than not, but he has only one interception in the last eight games.

Madsen provides some rushing upside, too. One of his four rushing touchdowns came in the regular season meeting against UNLV. It gave Boise its first lead in the second quarter. Boise has a strong football tradition and has played in big games. Having this one on its home field will make a difference.

Why UNLV could win as the underdog

Best odds: +162 at Caesars Sportsbook

UNLV’s rush defense strutted its stuff against Boise State in October. The Rebels have been better since then, allowing 3.0, 3.1, 1.2 and 2.4 yards per rush to their last four opponents.

Nobody expects the Rebels to shut down Jeanty, but they can do better than they did in the first meeting and force the Broncos to depend on Madsen’s passing game more than they want to. He has had his moments, but he hasn’t been consistent.

UNLV isn’t one-dimensional. Its offense behind dual-threat quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has been rolling. If it’s easy to see how this game can be close, it would not be surprising to see the Rebels win outright.