As the planet logs its hottest year on record, the prospect of climate change denier Donald Trump’s return to the White House has sent waves of anxiety throughout the world.

For many, his reelection couldn’t have come at a worse time.

This year will be the first where the average global temperatures are 2.7 degrees above preindustrial levels, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS), the European Union’s Earth Observation Program.

“This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the CCCS, in a recent press release.

Trump’s reelection to what is arguably the most powerful and influential office in global politics may feel like doomsday for many who fear his “drill, baby, drill” ideologies and brash disregard for the environment and climate change efforts. He has promised to dismantle Biden’s climate change legacy by gutting environment and climate-focused agencies, roll back green regulations that hinder oil and gas and coal mining, and rescind all unspent funds from the $369 billion Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Biden’s landmark climate law that provides billions in subsidies for electric vehicles, solar power, and wind energy. He also wants to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement.

However, much has changed since Trump entered the White House in 2016. The world and a mix of red and blue states have embraced renewable energy, contributing to 30% of the world’s electricity supply—up two-thirds in a decade. Domestically, solar power is up by 700% in a decade, while wind energy use has doubled, according to industry reports. The EV vehicle revolution is in full swing, and even those in Trump’s administration and at the top of the fossil fuel industry are in opposition to some of his policies and anti-environmental and climate rhetoric.

“I don’t think the challenge or the need to address global emissions is going to go away,” said Exxon CEO Darren Woods during COP29, the world’s most significant climate conference. “Anything that happens in the short term would just make the longer term that much more challenging.”

In addition to Woods’ pushback, Trump’s joint head of the soon-to-be-created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Elon Musk, remains a vocal advocate of the environment, renewable energy and combating climate change.

While the trends may be promising, fossil fuel use is also at record highs, reflecting the world’s growing energy needs.

While a 2.7 degree-increase in global temperature may sound minimal, it represents a point where the impacts of climate change become significantly more severe, with the potential for irreversible damage to ecosystems and human societies, according to the United Nations.

These slight temperature increases are already manifesting in a string of cascading effects, such as water shortages, rising sea levels, habitat loss, animal extinctions, food scarcity, disease spread, and enormous economic losses. But it’s extreme weather where the effects of climate change are most tangible and evident. Floods, hurricanes, heatwaves, drought, and wildfires have become defining features of life in parts of the United States and elsewhere on Earth, thrusting humans into one of the most existential periods in recorded history.

“Trump’s win is no doubt bad news for U.S. climate action,” said Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Washington, D.C.-based Asia Society Policy Institute, during a climate policy webinar in the aftermath of the election. “It will also have a spillover effect for global climate politics, casting a shadow over COP29. Other countries will need to step up to fill the leadership gap. The EU and China will need to be critical partners in this endeavor.”

As Trump prepares to return to the Oval Office, here’s a breakdown of what climate and environment moves to expect.

Extreme weather disasters

While Trump certainly isn’t to blame for the effects of climate change—primarily caused by the accumulation of transport, energy production, and industrial greenhouse gasses— the White House has broad authority over agencies that help predict, prepare, manage, and recover from extreme weather.

These changes may result in deep cuts to federal budgets as Trump seeks to shrink and reshape the federal government drastically. The Federal Emergency and Management Agency (FEMA) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will likely face significant overhauls.

Project 2025, a 922-page conservative policy roadmap put together by the right-leaning Heritage Foundation think tank, recommends NOAA be “broken up and downsized” and guts FEMA of its role by passing the financial burden for disaster recovery to state and local governments. Trump consistently distanced himself from the group during the campaign.

“It almost becomes unthinkable that states would ever be able to recover without long, costly recovery periods that would come out of state and local budgets,” Craig Fugate, who served as FEMA’s administrator under the Obama administration, told NBC News.

It’s not yet known what could happen to FEMA’s grant and loan programs, which allow states to access funding for long-term solutions to reduce the impact of future disasters, including mitigation planning that breaks the cycle of damage and reconstruction. The federal government typically picks up 75% of the cost, with states contributing 25%.

Paris Climate Agreement

The loss of U.S. leadership in global climate diplomacy will be a blow to worldwide efforts to curb emissions, especially in China and India, which, along with the U.S., contribute 53% of global greenhouse emissions.

But it’s not all gloom.

“Climate action is not a wall where if you remove one brick it falls down,” said Mo Adow, founding director of the Kenya-based climate and energy think tank Power Shift Africa, during the webinar. “It is like a trampoline with many springs. If you take one out, others can bear the load. The impetus for climate action over the next four years will not come from the politics of the White House, it will come from the economics of clean energy, from Europe, emerging markets and sub-national actors in the U.S. and around the world.”

The Environmental Protection Agency

On Tuesday, Trump picked former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York to lead the EPA, who immediately announced on social media platform X that he would make the U.S. the global leader of AI.

The energy required to power AI is substantial. For example, generating one AI image uses as much energy as charging an iPhone. By 2026, global AI use will require the same energy needs as Japan, according to the International Energy Agency.

A Goldman Sachs research paper noted that the demand for power at AI data centers could climb by 160% by 2030, releasing more atmospheric emissions. One way to curb the vast energy output is to ensure that fossil fuel power plants transition to renewable energy sources to generate energy. Full adoption is slated for 2035, but that timeline may be unlikely. However, scrapping EPA rules could delay that goal.

“We can meet demand for data centers without scrapping EPA rules to clean up dirty power plants and cut climate pollution,” Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), said in a statement responding to Zeldin’s appointment. “We count on the EPA to protect clean air and water and public health and that’s what we’ll hold the next administrator accountable to do.”

However, tech companies are among the biggest consumers of renewable energy. Google and Microsoft, which have grown their carbon footprints because of AI, have signed agreements to revive some defunct nuclear power plants that are dramatically less harmful to the environment than power plants.

The Inflation Reduction Act

Unfortunately for Trump, the IRA is popular among some House Republicans, who have seen the economic benefits in their districts and warned GOP Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana to be cautious in any efforts to repeal or reform the law.

About 60 percent of all IRA-related clean economy projects and 85 percent of total private-sector investments have gone to GOP congressional districts, according to an analysis by nonpartisan business organization E2. And that’s even though no Republican member of Congress voted in favor of the IRA. Of the top 20 congressional districts for clean energy investments, 19 are held by Republicans.

“Donald Trump’s going to learn something that our opponents in our initiative battle learned: Once people have a benefit, you can’t take it away,” Washington Governor Jay Inslee said in a press call Friday. “He is going to lose in his efforts to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act because governors, mayors of both parties, are going to say, ‘This belongs to me, and you’re not going to get your grubby hands on it.’”

Oil and gas policy

While Trump wants to loosen federal regulations and make an oil and gas boom more appealing, the realities of the market may temper his ambitions.

“If you’re anticipating a big oil and gas drilling boom to happen during the coming second term for President-elect Donald Trump, you would do well to temper that expectation,” David Blackmon, a Texas-based public policy analyst, wrote in Forbes. “While federal energy policy actions in a 2nd Trump term will certainly be more pro-oil and gas business than they’ve been during the Biden/Harris years, company management teams will remain bound by market realities that strongly advocate against mounting a new U.S.-focused drilling boom.”

However, the American Petroleum Institute (API), the largest oil and gas trade group, wants Trump to scrap a range of federal rules, including vehicle emission standards designed to promote electric vehicle production, reinstate export permits for liquefied natural gas facilities, and repeal methane emission fees related to drilling operations. The group also wants more auctions for oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico and allow development on federal lands, including National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Biden’s Bureau of Land Management moved to restrict that possibility on Wednesday.

There are also calls to shrink the land around national monuments, weaken the Endangered Species Act, and open Alaska’s largest forest to logging.

Food and Farmers

Trump’s promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants could cause the entire agricultural industry to collapse, according to Mary Jo Dudley, the director of the New York-based Cornell Farmworker Program.

“There are no available skilled workers to replace the current workforce should this policy be put into place,” she told the Missouri Independent Tuesday.

Stephen Miller, who will be Trump’s deputy chief of staff for policy, said in 2023 that mass deportation would force the agricultural industry to offer higher wages with better benefits to fill the vacant jobs. However, studies show the policy would cost Americans 88,000 jobs for every one million undocumented immigrants seized and deported, primarily because the policy would prompt U.S. business owners to cut back or start fewer new businesses, shifting investments to less labor-intensive technologies and industries. The study noted those who were harmed would be the least educated and most economically vulnerable workers.

At the climate level, the Biden administration spent $19 billion to help implement agricultural practices to reduce agricultural emissions, among the highest outside transportation and energy. Industry insiders worry that those transition investments will stop under Trump. There are also fears that Trump’s proposed trade tariffs–a plan to tax imports–could result in retaliatory tariffs that could hurt farmers across the Midwest, who exported $27 billion worth of agricultural products in 2023. Trump’s China tariffs in his first term cost farmers billions, prompting the Trump administration to hand out aid totaling $28 billion—more than the budget of U.S. nuclear forces.

Despite this, voters nearly 80% of U.S. farming-dependent counties voted for Trump.

Home Insurance costs

In addition to the potential loss of federal grants aimed at reinforcing homes against extreme weather, overseas retaliation against Trump’s tariffs could increase the cost of building materials sourced from overseas. In addition, labor costs may increase if Trump’s deportation plan is put in motion, draining building crews and driving up costs.

The cost of building materials and labor are factored into homeowner premiums.