The Gulf of Mexico could have a tropical storm — or hurricane — to deal with later this week. And there are some hints at where it could go.

The National Hurricane Center on Monday was watching a tropical disturbance in the northwestern Caribbean that is expected to organize into a tropical depression or tropical storm in the next couple of days.

Forecasters expect it to track northward and into the southern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.

Many forecast models show the system approaching the northern or eastern U.S. Gulf Coast — anywhere from Mississippi to the Florida Peninsula (including Alabama) — late this week or this weekend.

The hurricane center urged those along the northern and eastern Gulf Coast to check their hurricane supplies and make sure their plans are in order should the storm come their way.

On Monday forecasters were leaning toward a possible landfall somewhere in Florida, from the Panhandle to the Big Bend — although it should be stressed that could change since the disturbance was still in the formation stages.

The disturbance being called Invest 97L for now, but it could become Tropical Storm Helene if it develops a defined center of circulation and has winds of 39 mph or higher.

“Although the exact path is still uncertain at this time, guidance is coming into fairly good agreement that 97L’s eventual path will likely result in a landfall somewhere along the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area, and with the favorable conditions in place, it is a good chance that it will make landfall as a hurricane,” the National Weather Service in Mobile said in its Monday morning forecast discussion.

That doesn’t mean that those along the Alabama coast can tune out and relax. A lot of things can change with a developing disturbance, especially its forecast path. The hurricane center urged those along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast to closely monitor the forecast this week.

The weather service said areas along the Alabama coast won’t feel any effects from the storm until midweek at the earliest. Rain will be possible through the week, but the approaching storm won’t send the weather downhill in earnest until likely Thursday.

Forecasters expect rough seas and deadly rip currents to develop along the coast, especially later this week.

“It is still too early to determine specifics regarding eventual storm track and intensity, storm surge, winds, and rainfall amounts,” the weather service said Monday. “We will continue to monitor this potential system during the next several days. It is important not to focus on individual model forecasts.”

The weather service also noted that many models are forecasting the storm to be a large one that could spread bad weather over a wide area — not just where the center makes landfall.

The hurricane center said areas on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula could get a taste of the storm first, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued later today for that area as well as western Cuba.

There have been seven named storms so far in 2024 in the Atlantic. Four of them — Beryl, Debby, Ernesto and Francine — became hurricanes. Three of those four (Beryl, Debby and Francine) hit the Gulf Coast.

The Atlantic hurricane season is in what is typically what is its most active stretch. The last day of the season will be Nov. 30.