Tropical storm may on path for Caribbean this weekend

Activity is picking up again in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and the second tropical storm of 2024 may form as soon as this weekend.

That’s according to the National Hurricane Center, which was watching two tropical waves on Thursday.

One of those waves was bound for the southwestern Gulf of Mexico (or Bay of Campeche) and had a 30 percent shot at becoming a tropical depression. The path for that system would possibly take it toward Mexico.

The same can’t be said for another disturbance, which on Thursday was far out in the the central Atlantic.

Some forecast models are showing it becoming not only a tropical storm, but potentially the first hurricane of 2024. And it’s headed in the direction of the Caribbean.

But that’s just speculation at this point. As of Thursday morning the disturbance (or Invest 95) was located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands off Africa’s west coast.

It was disorganized on Thursday, but the hurricane center expects that to change soon.

Forecasters said a tropical depression or tropical storm is “likely” to form this weekend while the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward Islands (the island chain that acts like the gateway to the Caribbean).

The hurricane center said the system is expected to track to the west at 15-20 mph.

It has a high chance (70 percent) of becoming a depression in the next seven days.

A system has to have a closed, defined center of circulation and winds of at least 39 mph to be classified as a tropical storm and get a name. The next name on the 2024 Atlantic storm list is Beryl. (There has already been Tropical Storm Alberto.)

It’s too soon to say where the potential Beryl will go, and if it could affect the U.S. But it’s not out of the question at this point and is the subject of much speculation by hurricane watchers.

The system will be tracking very close to a plume of Saharan dust, seen here on satellite on Thursday morning. The dust can inhibit storm development, but it remains to be seen if or how it could affect this system.

The two tropical waves can be seen on the right and left of this satellite image of the Atlantic. The hazy areas over the ocean are clouds of Saharan dust, some of which could end up over South Florida this weekend.NOAA

There are no other potential storms being monitored by the hurricane center as of Thursday morning. However, several waves are expected to move off the west coast of Africa soon that could eventually be added to the list.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is widely anticipated to be a very busy one. NOAA forecasters think 17 to 25 named storms could be possible before the season officially ends on Nov. 30.

Graphic with pie chart showing 2024 hurricane season probability and numbers of predicted named storms

There’s the early season hurricane outlook from NOAA, released in late May.Courtesy NOAA