A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea could become Tropical Storm Rafael later today.

The National Hurricane Center thinks the potential Rafael will strengthen to a hurricane in a few days, and it is on a path toward the Gulf of Mexico.

The storm could be in the central Gulf by the end of the work week, but forecasters expect it to weaken as it moves into more unfavorable conditions near the northern Gulf Coast.

What happens after that is very uncertain, according to the hurricane center and the National Weather Service.

As of 6 a.m. CST Monday, Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 was located about 220 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and was tracking to the north at 7 mph.

The storm had winds of 35 mph. It needs a defined surface circulation and winds of at east 39 mph to become Tropical Storm Rafael. That could happen as soon as today, according to the hurricane center.

The potential Rafael could strengthen quickly after that and become a hurricane by early Wednesday morning.

On the hurricane center’s forecast track, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Forecasters said hurricane conditions will be possible in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon

The storm could bring 3 to 6 inches of rain to parts of Jamaica and Cuba through the middle of the week.

More rain will spread to parts of Florida and eventually the Southeast U.S. later this week.

A hurricane warning is now in effect for the Cayman Islands, and a tropical storm warning continues for Jamaica.

POSSIBLE ALABAMA IMPACTS

The National Weather Service offices in Alabama continued to watch the evolution of the storm on Monday.

The weather service in Mobile said that there is an “unusually large amount of uncertainty with the movement of this system later in the week.”

Forecasters said it is too early to know with any certainty what coastal areas could face as far as storm surge, rain amounts and wind potential.

What is more certain is that the storm will generate rough surf and a high risk of rip currents along the Alabama and northwest Florida coastline this week.

The weather service in Birmingham also said that there was considerable uncertainty about how the Gulf storm could affect the rest of Alabama later this week.

Forecasters said “forecast confidence decreases significantly for Thursday through Sunday and rain chances will hinge on the potential for isentropic lift and progression of the system in the Gulf of Mexico.”

Best-case scenario is a weak system that doesn’t cause any damage but brings beneficial rainfall to Alabama, which is mired in various stages of drought.

Here is the latest report on Alabama’s drought conditions:

Those along the Gulf Coast and through Alabama are urged to keep a close eye on the forecast through the week.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS

The National Hurricane Center was also monitoring Tropical Storm Patty in the northeastern Atlantic on Monday. Patty transitioned from a subtropical storm to a fully tropical system on Sunday but is expected to lose all those features later today and become a post-tropical storm.

Patty could bring 3 to 6 inches of rain to parts of Portugal and Spain, however.

There will also be another tropical disturbance to watch near the Bahamas and Cuba this week.

The hurricane center said an area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. It has a low chance of development (20 percent) into a tropical depression as it heads westward this week.

The Atlantic hurricane season has a few weeks left to go. The last day will be Nov. 30.