Tropical Storm Bret continued its march across the Atlantic Ocean early Tuesday morning, and forecasters believe it could become 2023′s first hurricane in a day or two.

Bret is headed in the direction of the Caribbean, and the National Hurricane Center warned those in the Lesser Antilles to keep a close eye on the storm, since it’s possible it could pass over some of those islands at near hurricane strength by the end of the work week.

The long-range track from the hurricane center sends Bret into the central Caribbean by Saturday and keeps it south of Puerto Rico. It’s too soon to say if Bret will continue on westward after that and eventually affect the mainland United States.

The hurricane center’s forecast, however, weakens Bret from a hurricane to a tropical storm by Friday, when it will be in the Caribbean.

As of 4 a.m. CDT Tuesday, Tropical Storm Bret was located 1,130 miles east of the southern Windward Islands and was tracking to the west at 17 mph.

Bret had 40 mph winds, making it a minimal tropical storm. The hurricane center expects Bret to strengthen, and it could become a hurricane in a few days. Hurricane-force winds begin at 74 mph.

The hurricane center’s intensity forecast suggests Bret could peak as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds.

After three days, however, forecasters anticipate Bret will run into more wind shear and drier air, which should weaken the storm as it moves further into the Caribbean.

The hurricane center warned those in the islands that Bret could bring a risk of flooding, strong winds and dangerous storm surge and waves.

However, forecasters said the longer-range forecast track is more uncertain: “Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast, it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor updates to the forecast for Bret and have their hurricane plan in place.”

Bret is a history-making storm because it formed so far east so early in the hurricane season. From Colorado State University’s hurricane researcher Dr. Philip Klotzbach:

Bret is not the only thing being watched in the tropical Atlantic. The hurricane center is also tracking a second disturbance right behind Bret that could become a tropical depression later this week.

That disturbance was located farther east, several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

The hurricane center said conditions will be favorable for it to strengthen as it tracks to the west at 10 to 15 mph.

It has a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next seven days.

The next name on the 2023 Atlantic storm list is Cindy, by the way.

The Atlantic hurricane season began June 1 and runs until Nov. 30.

A near-average season is anticipated as far as the number of storms goes. NOAA’s hurricane outlook, released in late May, forecast 12-17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger storms).