Tropical depression may form in Gulf this week: What can Alabama expect?

The National Hurricane Center thinks a tropical depression could form in the Gulf in a few days.

Forecasters continued to track an area of low pressure that was in the western Atlantic Ocean just east of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday.

It is expected to move westward, across the Sunshine State, and into the Gulf by Wednesday.

The hurricane center said conditions in the Gulf will be favorable for the system to organize, and it could become a tropical depression as it continues to track to the west or west-northwest this week.

The hurricane center has raised the probability of a depression forming to 40 percent, an increase from 30 percent on Monday.

A system has to have a defined center of circulation and sustained winds of at least 40 mph to be classified as a tropical storm and get a name.

The next name on the 2025 Atlantic storm list is Dexter.

Weather watchers aren’t expecting this system to intensify into a hurricane, but it could bring a lot of rain to parts of Florida and the northern Gulf Coast, including Alabama.

WHAT CAN ALABAMA EXPECT?

The National Weather Service in Mobile continued to keep a close eye on the system on Tuesday and said it could potentially bring 2 to 4 inches of rain to parts of south Alabama.

Here is the current rainfall outlook through Friday for parts of south Alabama:

Here is the expected rain amounts for parts of south Alabama and coastal areas through Friday morning. Expect this forecast to change depending on the track of a tropical disturbance this week.NWS

“There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding whether or not this develops into a tropical depression and regarding the eventual track of the system” the weather service said in its Tuesday morning forecast discussion.

“One potential scenario is that the system moves into the Gulf and remains near the coastline with less time to develop. Another scenario is that this system moves a little further out into the Gulf with more time to develop. Regardless of development, we will get drenched with heavy rain (especially across the southern portion of the area), which may lead to flooding issues if storms repeatedly move over the same locations.”

The weather service is forecasting a low rip current risk today, but it will increase to moderate on Wednesday and high (the highest level) on Thursday and Friday. That means swimming the Gulf will be hazardous.

Here is the rip current forecast for Alabama and northwest Florida coastal areas:

Alabama rip current forecast — A high risk for rip currents will go into effect on Thursday and Friday for Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.NWS

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