Three best bets to make for Alabama vs. Michigan
We’re only a few days away from the anticipated rematch of last year’s College Football Playoff semifinal, when the Alabama Crimson Tide meet the Michigan Wolverines on Tuesday in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Alabama finished fourth in the SEC standings but won four of its last five. The rebuilding Wolverines are coming off its fourth consecutive victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Join me as I share three best bets (without the spread) for Tuesday’s ReliaQuest Bowl.
Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Alabama vs. Michigan best bet No. 1: Under 43.5
Best odds: -110 at FanDuel Sportsbook
The way things stand today, Alabama and Michigan will have most of the players available that led each university to bowl eligibility.
The current rosters could change at any moment, but based on what is widely available, one early bet to place is on the game total ending under 43.5 points.
Both groups have defenses seemingly intact that ranked in the top 20 nationally in points allowed. Both have strong red-zone defenses, which is probably why both groups qualified for this game.
The offenses are mainly intact. However, Michigan will miss RB Donovan Edwards. That will affect how Michigan runs an offense that averaged an underwhelming 22 points per game.
QB Jalen Milroe is expected to suit up for an Alabama offense that averages 35 points per game. Milroe makes big plays with his feet, and he’s tough to contain. The Michigan defense bends but ranks 23rd in red-zone success rate.
Michigan won 27-20 in overtime the last time these teams met. That game was a physical battle, and I believe this one will be as well, ending under 43.5 points.
Alabama vs. Michigan best bet No. 2: Alabama first drive result punt
Best odds: +120 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Michigan will want to show Milroe and the Crimson Tide that the Wolverines are there to win this game.
Michigan plays defense. It’s what the Wolverines do. They have one of the top defensive units nationally and will want to set the tone early. I believe they will.
Setting the tone defensively is what Michigan does. The Wolverines allow a stingy 3.4 first-quarter points per game. The Alabama offense averages 8.8 first-quarter points, including 6.6 points on the road.
Milroe is special, but the Crimson Tide offense isn’t overwhelming. The Wolverines are a tough unit to score against. I expect Michigan to be locked in enough from the kickoff and end the Crimson Tide’s first drive with a punt.
Alabama vs. Michigan best bet No. 3: First quarter yotal under 9.5
Best odds: +105 at DraftKings Sportsbook
We’ve talked about the Wolverines’ defense. That unit is the reason Michigan is in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Michigan’s offense isn’t explosive. Its pound-the-rock-and-wind-the-clock style won seven games, but it doesn’t lead to high-scoring quarters or games.
The Wolverines score an average of four points per first quarter, and they meet a stout Alabama defense that allows a measly two points across the opening 15 minutes.
I don’t expect many big plays from Michigan. They’ll want to keep the ball out of Milroe’s hands and play three yards and a cloud of dust for the entire 60 minutes.
I believe defense will rule the day from the opening kick, and the first quarter will end under 9.5 points.