The US fertility rate just hit a record low. Here’s why that matters.
Americans are having fewer babies.
According to a newly published Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report, 3.6 million babies were born in 2023, about 54.4 live births for every 1,000 women between the ages of 15 to 44. This is down by 2% from 2022 and the lowest it’s been in over a century.
Those who are having children are waiting longer to become parents. Per the report, the teen birth rate is at a record low of 13.2 births per 1,000 teens between 15 and 19. Birth rates were highest for women ages 30 to 34, and the only age group with an increased birth rate were women 40 and older, at 13 births for eber 1,000 women, though this is still the lowest of every age group.
The fertility rate has been trending down for years, but there was a mini baby boom during the pandemic which some economists believe is due to the rise in remote work, reports Axios. Experts say numerous factors play into this overall decrease.
“The highest rates have, over time, been shifting towards women in their 30s whereas before it used to be with women in their 20s,” said lead author Dr. Brady Hamilton, a statistician with the National Center for Health Statistics. “One factor, of course, is the option to wait. We had a pandemic, or there’s an economic downturn, let’s say – women in their 20s can postpone having a birth until things improve and they feel more comfortable. For older women, the option of waiting is not as viable.”
Economics plays a major role in people’s decision to forgo kids or wait later in life to start having them. NerdWallet’s 2024 Cost of Raising Children Report revealed many people’s decisions to not have children is driven by cost. About 31% of Americans under 60, including 38% of millennials who aren’t parents, say they don’t plan to have kids because raising a child is too expensive. Additionally, of parents of minors who don’t plan to have more children, 1 in 5 say it’s because the cost of raising kids is too high.
“The cost of children looms large in the minds of both parents and prospective parents, making people think twice before growing their family,” Kimberly Palmer, a NerdWallet personal finance expert told Parents. “For many people, the cost of children is so high that they delay having kids, skip having them altogether, or have fewer children than they would have otherwise.”
According to Forbes, in 2024 it costs $18,865 to give birth in the U.S., and according to research by LendingTree, the average cost of raising a child until they’re 18-years-old is $237,482. With an average salary of $59,384, most Americans can’t afford another mouth to feed, especially considering the additional economic barriers and lack of supportive policies they face.
The average student debt per borrower is $37,088, according to the Education Data Initiative. As student loan debt rises, many borrowers struggle to reach what have been traditionally considered milestones such as purchasing a home and having children. Additionally, the U.S. lacks supportive policies, compared to other nations, surrounding affordable childcare and paid parental leave, making it difficult for parents to juggle work and family life.
The decision to have kids impacts us all. Here’s why declining fertility rates matter:
Shrinking workforce
Plummeting fertility rates have led to American women now having 1.6 kids on average, below the 2.1 replacement rate which is needed to sustain the population, according to Vox. This shortage of people is pointing to a smaller workforce in the future, which experts say has the potential to further strain economic growth.
“This is the issue of the future, because this is going to become the first-order issue for all kinds of industries in America,” Lant Pritchett, a development economist and RISE Research director at Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government, told Business Insider in May. “They just won’t be able to attract workers.”
With an aging population and fewer people in the workforce to contribute to social programs such as Social Security and Medicare, the Social Security Office of Policy predicts financial challenges, with Social Security funds projected to be exhausted by 2040.
This lack of financial security is one of the reasons people are waiting longer to retire. Many elders simply can’t afford to stop working, an issue projected to deepen as millennials and Gen Z age.
Need for more caregivers
Shifting age structures may cause issues for smaller families who might not have the support they need for childcare and eldercare. Though an aging population indicates that grandma will probably be around to meet her grandkids, she may be too frail to help.
“As the age gap between individuals and their relatives widens, people will have family networks that are not just smaller, but also older,” said Diego Alburez-Gutierrez, head of the Research Group Kinship Inequalities at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. “While this could theoretically help ease the burden of childcare for parents, these (great-)grandparents may actually need care themselves.”
Additionally, Congress’ Joint Economic Committee says that lower fertility rates means children have less siblings, or no siblings, which may shift our learned behaviors and social capital. According to the report, siblings are often a person’s longest-lasting relationships, providing support, helping them gain interpersonal skills, and teaching kids to exhibit self-control.
Unbalanced power
Research by the Lancet published last month found shifts in global fertility, predicting that three-quarters of countries will not be able to sustain their population size by 2050.
“The implications are immense,” said Natalia Bhattacharjee, co-lead author of the study and lead research scientist at Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. “These future trends in fertility rates and live births will completely reconfigure the global economy and the international balance of power — and will necessitate reorganizing societies.”
Countries with growing populations may have a competitive edge in workforce development and innovation, leaving the U.S. potentially in a different position globally, and poorer countries, which are expected to see their birth rates double by the year 2100, in a stronger position to negotiate policies, according to experts from the Lancet study.