The latest thinking about Alabama’s snow chances this week

A several-day stretch of very cold temperatures is expected this week across Alabama, and there are still two chances for some snow in the forecast.

They are still very uncertain chances, however.

Parts of northern Alabama have a shot at seeing a few snowflakes on Monday, according to the National Weather Service.

Then more of the state could — could — see some of the white stuff later this week, with speculation centering on the Thursday-Saturday timeframe.

With winter precipitation in Alabama, it’s always a matter of timing, and that appears to be part of the issue with the late-week system. It could also come down to a matter of a few degrees, which could make the difference between snow and just a cold rain.

Those details remained murky as of Sunday, but forecasters noted that a more consistent signal for some kind of wintry precipitation is there.

MONDAY – A FEW FLURRIES?

There was a possibility of some freezing rain last night for those in north Alabama, but the National Weather Service in Huntsville said temperatures ended up being several degrees higher than predicted.

However, light snow will be possible for parts of north Alabama on Monday, according to the weather service.

Here is the forecast for 6 a.m. Monday:

This is the forecast for 6 a.m. Monday, showing the possibility of some snow flurries for north Alabama and some rain in south Alabama.NWS

Forecasters said no significant accumulations are expected, and no snow is expected for central or south Alabama on Monday.

A very cold blast of air is headed toward Alabama and will arrive later tonight behind a strong cold front. (That front could bring a few stronger storms to Alabama later tonight.)

The weather service expects temperatures in north Alabama to drop into the upper 20s or low 30s by sunrise on Monday. The rest of the state is expected to stay above freezing.

Here are tonight’s expected low temperatures:

Monday morning lows

Here are tonight’s expected low temperatures. Only north Alabama is expected to fall near or below freezing.NWS

Early-morning drivers in north Alabama should be cautious on the roads, because there could be a concern for ice on any roadways with leftover rain, though that is not a certainty.

The weather service said there could be some snow flurries or even snow showers for those in north Alabama during the day on Monday.

Areas in northeast Alabama, and especially the higher elevations, have the best chances of seeing a dusting, but the rest of the region is expected to see only flurries, if anything at all.

Some areas downwind from Lake Wheeler could also see a few snow showers (lake effect snow in Alabama), the weather service added.

There could also be a chance of more flurries from Monday night into Tuesday morning, forecasters said.

LATER THIS WEEK

Most of the attention for this week will be focused on the Thursday-Saturday timeframe, where there is the potential to see some snow, according to the weather service.

And snow chances with that system could end up including a wider area, though that is far from certain at this point.

The weather service in Birmingham on Sunday noted that weather models have continued to “vary in the finer details from run to run, the overall pattern has become more consistent.”

The weather service is expecting an area of low pressure to develop near or overs the Gulf of Mexico later this week and track to the east, affecting Alabama starting late Thursday into Friday.

A Gulf low and cold air in place is typically a good setup for Alabama to see some sort of winter precipitation, but as of Sunday the details of what could happen this time are still murky.

The thinking is that the low pressure area could track near or over the state on Friday.

There’s also a question of whether it could bring enough “warmer” air here to keep any precipitation in the liquid form.

The weather service noted that “a difference in 2-4 degrees in a few hours will make the difference between winter weather and a cold (but all liquid) rain.”

The precipitation could start out as a wintry mix or even snow, transition to rain during the day on Friday, then transition back to a wintry mix by Friday night into Saturday morning, forecasters said.

“The two big unknowns at this time are: 1.) the track of the coastal low and 2.) the timing of the warm air advection in relation to the precipitation moving in. Both factors will need to be watched in coming days as the forecast becomes more refined.”

MORE CERTAIN — IT’S GOING TO BE COLD

The weather service warned Alabamians to prepare for several days of very cold temperatures this week.

The coldest days are still expected to be Tuesday through Thursday.

High temperatures on those days could stay in the 30s for north and much of central Alabama, with south Alabama only making it into the 40s.

Overnight lows will be in the teens and 20s in north and north-central Alabama, and the 20s will be felt across much of south Alabama.

Wind chills during this week will make it feel even colder.

The weather service noted that Thursday morning could end up being the coldest. Here is the forecast for low temperatures from Wednesday night into Thursday morning:

Wed-Thurs lows

The weather service said Wednesday night into Thursday morning could end up being the coldest. Here are the forecast low temperatures.NWS

The weather service said now is the time to prepare your family and home for a prolonged cold spell, and remember the catchphrase to protect people, pets, pipes and plants.

Weather info - safety tips - cold weather - pets

Safety tips from the National Weather Service.National Weather Service