Over a year ago, the current president-elect Donald Trump promised to shake up education as we know it.

“One other thing I’ll be doing very early in the administration is closing up the Department of Education in Washington, D.C., and sending all education and education work and needs back to the states,” he said in a video posted to social media in October 2023, outlining his vision for education if elected to a second term. “We want them to run the education of our children because they’ll do a much better job of it.”

That radical restructuring of American education is now closer to reality.

Now, as he prepares to take office in January, Trump is doubling down on his pledge to abolish the Department of Education, which was elevated to a Cabinet-level department by President Jimmy Carter in 1979, though federal education oversight has existed in various forms since 1867. Doing so would require an act of Congress, and even though Republicans control both chambers, the measure would need Democratic support to pass, which analysts say is unlikely.

Still, Agenda 47, which outlines his 30 core campaign promises, includes cutting federal funding to schools that are “pushing critical race theory, radical gender ideology, and other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content on our children.” With the potential for restructuring or a full department shutdown looming, educators are bracing for what these changes could bring and who they would impact.

The blueprint for change

Some of the answers lie in Project 2025, the conservative political plan that Trump has attempted to distance himself from. However, it was penned by his former staffers, including

his former director of the Office of Management and Budget, Russ Vought, who is currently being considered for a cabinet position.  The playbook calls for shifting federal funding for special education into grants for school districts that would be managed by the Department of Health and Human Services. According to Chalkbeat, it also would transfer assets used to ensure laws that prevent discrimination against people with disabilities to the Department of Justice, including the Office for Civil Rights.

“I don’t think it has any obvious impacts on IDEA funding,” Eric Hanushek, an education researcher of school funding and a senior fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution, told Chalkbeat. “I personally think that the federal government should have a larger responsibility in special education funding.” The Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) ensures that students with disabilities receive a free education tailored to their specific needs.

Julian Toscano, an educational equity consultant in the Rio Grande Valley, says the mindset behind Project 2025 has already taken hold in states like Texas, where Senate Bill 17 went into effect this year, banning diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI)  programs and resources in higher education. According to Houston Public Media, the change eliminated 300 jobs and hundreds of programs and trainings within the University of Texas system.

“We had to spend a lot of resources and time actually going through all of our documents to make sure that certain words and phrases did not appear,” Toscano said. He added that the time spent ensuring compliance diverted resources  from ensuring students were supported. “We were unable to continue exploring those best practices of what is actually going to help students improve, and now we’re missing a huge set of data that impacts our work with all of our students, especially our special education students.”

The impact on schools will vary by state, as most special education funding comes from sources other than the federal level. While IDEA authorizes the government to spend 40% of the average cost per student to provide special education services, the National Association of Elementary School Principals (NAESP) reported last year that federal funding covered less than 13%, down from a peak of 18% in 2004-2006.

The decline coincided with both the 2008 financial crisis and increased special education enrollment, which rose by nearly 1 million students between 2006 and 2020. Despite rising costs and student numbers, federal appropriations failed to keep pace with inflation and growing demand.

Existing challenges and disparities

Despite varied funding sources, educators and advocates say these presumed cuts could have detrimental effects where resources are already spread thin.

“We’ll probably see less money at the university level, so we’ll have less teachers going into the field,” said Amy Larsen, disabilities rights advocate and special education consultant based in Long Beach. “It’s likely we’ll see some sort of crumbling of the public education system.”

The teacher shortage is already critical. In the 2023-2024 school year, 80% of states reported a shortage of special education teachers, according to Education Next.

Additionally, Project 2025 calls for phasing out Title I, which provides federal funding to school districts to support low-income students. The National Center for Education Statistics reported that during the 2021-2022 school year, the latest available data, about 60% of K-12 schools were eligible to receive Title I funding, which supports preschool, afterschool programs, technology and academic needs in schools with higher populations of economically disadvantaged students.

The program, which received $18.4 billion in federal funding for the 2023-24 school year, allows schools to hire additional teachers and paraprofessionals, purchase technology and classroom materials, and provide extended learning opportunities like after-school tutoring and summer programs. Schools can use the funds in two ways: targeted assistance that supports specific struggling students, or schoolwide programs in schools where at least 40% of students come from low-income families.

“It really worries me—[this funding] is like a safety net,” said Toscano. These resources and differentiated support [represent] an attempt at true equity, of giving students what they need—that it is going to be disastrous, and students in the United States are going to have very different experiences depending on what states they live in.”

Larsen says there will be a greater disparity in services for students who need them most, especially Black students and other students of color.

“There are way more students of color receiving services that don’t need services, that means they don’t have a disability, but they’re labeled with a disability,” said Larsen. “And then we have way too many students that are underrepresented in special education, so students of color that cannot get services they need [despite having] a disability.”

Toscano also expressed worry about these students who will fall through the cracks e without accountability from the Department of Education.

“Things are far from being perfect with the system that there is, but if we now take away this system, there will be so many more students that fall through the cracks, especially Black, Indigenous students of color, students with disabilities, students who are neurodivergent, LGBTQ students as well, who weren’t even recognized [until recently],” he said.

According to the latest Civil Rights Data Collection from the U.S. Department of Education, Black students represent 17.7% of the student population in special education, while making up only 15.1% of overall public school enrollment. Native American students are 1.7 times more likely to be identified for special education services than the general student population. Meanwhile, English language learners, who represent 10.4% of the general student population, consistently face barriers accessing special education services, with studies showing significant delays in their identification and evaluation for services.

Though there are many unknowns, Toscano says many districts are focused on what they can control: investing in educators, retention, and expanding the pipeline of educators prepared to serve diverse populations.

“People need resources to thrive and to learn,” said Toscano. “The secondary most important thing, in addition to resources, is the relationship between the adults and the youth. When students feel they can go to a building where the adults like them, care for them, respect them, and see them, they’re more likely to be able to like learn and feel comfortable, and engage in the learning process.”

What families can do now

In preparation for potential changes to education under the next administration, Larsen advises parents to learn their rights and connect with organizations like the Council of Parent Attorneys and Advocates (COPAA) who help protect the rights of students with disabilities and their families.

“I’m just reading the tea leaves,” she said. “Nobody has answers right now because nothing has been done but come January 20, I think things are going to happen really fast.”

Experts also recommend several immediate steps for families and educators: document current services and accommodations in detail; obtain copies of all educational records and evaluations; join local parent support groups; and understand state-specific special education laws, which will become increasingly important if federal oversight diminishes. Parents should also maintain a communication log with their school and request written confirmation of any changes to their child’s services.

The National Center for Learning Disabilities offers free resources and toolkits at ncld.org.