The anomalies of 2023 SEC preseason football picks
It’s been a while since someone not named Alabama topped preseason media picks in the SEC West.
Each of the last 10 seasons saw the Crimson Tide voted to win the division — even in 2015 when Auburn was the pick to win the league title. Within the voting, it hasn’t even been close in recent years so that’s what made Friday’s release of the 2023 balloting notable.
Alabama, not picked to win the SEC title overall for the first time since 2015, was still narrowly picked to claim the final West championship. It received 165 of the 285 first-place votes with LSU getting 117.
For context, the numbers behind Alabama’s preseason voting dominance speak loudly.
In the past five years, 94.98% of the first-place ballots had the Crimson Tide on top of the SEC West. Only seven of the 315 voters (98%) over the previous two years had anyone else on top of the ballot.
This year, that Alabama percentage was 56.7%.
2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|
1. Alabama (165) | 1. Alabama (177) | 1. Alabama (130) |
2. LSU (117) | 2. Texas A&M (3) | 2. Texas A&M (1) |
3. Texas A&M (1) | 3. Arkansas (1) | 3. LSU (1) |
4. Ole Miss | 4. Ole Miss | 4. Ole Miss (1) |
5. Arkansas (3) | 5. LSU | 5. Auburn |
6. Auburn (4) | 6. Miss. St. | 6. Arkansas (1) |
7. Miss. St. (1) | 7. Auburn | 7. Miss St. |
Overall, the voting had a number of anomalies and outliers. Six of the seven SEC West teams received a first-place vote, even last-place Mississippi State. Only Ole Miss, picked fourth overall, didn’t get a first-place ballot.
On the East side, Georgia was the runaway with 265 of the 291 first-place votes while last-place Vanderbilt received eight.
And for the overall championship, Georgia got 181 votes to Alabama’s 62 and LSU’s 31. Not since 2015, when the Crimson Tide eventually won the league and national titles, had Alabama been picked anywhere but first in the SEC preseason poll.
2023 SEC champion |
---|
1. Georgia 181 |
2. Alabama 62 |
3. LSU 31 |
4. Tennessee 5 |
4. Vanderbilt 5 |
6. Arkansas 2 |
6. Auburn 2 |
8. Texas A&M 1 |
8. Miss. St. 1 |
8. S. Carolina 1 |
Since 1992, preseason media picks have 29% rate of correctly forecasting the champion. That’s nine of 31 years.
Either way, Alabama offensive lineman JC Latham was fine with the doubts that have crept into the Tide’s preseason perception.
“Yeah I love being the underdog,” he said Wednesday in Nashville at SEC Media Days. “That fuels me. When y’all don’t think we can do something or downplay somebody, I love the underdog stories. Like LeBron when he was going against the Warriors, that 3-1 lead, I was rooting for him all the way. So situations like that, it really gives me goosebumps when I get to prove who I am. When you’re supposed to win and you do, that’s great. But when you’re not supposed to win and you overcome that, that’s an even better feeling in my opinion.”
Expanding the scope, Alabama was picked to win in most other preseason publications who forecasted the West Division. The voting was close among 247Sports voters while Alabama had 14 first-place votes to LSU’s 10. Lindy’s and Athlon had the Tide on top as did AL.com’s survey of SEC sports information directors.
The only publication that had LSU over Alabama was the USA Today Network. The Tigers had 67 overall ballot points to Alabama’s 63.
Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.