The ‘almost embarrassing’ stat driving Alabama nuts

The ‘almost embarrassing’ stat driving Alabama nuts

In the realm of statistical anomalies, Alabama’s defense is a fascinating study.

It ranks among the nation’s best in practically every major statistical category — No. 6 in both scoring and yardage average allowances. Neither of the two escapes in the first half of the season could be pinned on a defense that had to bail out the offense a few times at Texas and last Saturday against Texas A&M.

So that makes the turnover deficiency even more confounding.

The only two teams in the 131-team FBS with fewer takeaways than Alabama’s three — Notre Dame and Stanford — played one fewer game than the Crimson Tide.

Alabama safety Jordan Battle had a word for it.

“Yeah, I mean, it’s like kinda almost embarrassing,” he said Tuesday, “because usually, you see Alabama defenses, they’re getting turnovers every game.”

That’s statistically verifiable. In the seven seasons between Alabama last finished with a negative turnover margin, it averaged at least one takeaway per game. The 2018 team had the high-water mark with 2.2 thefts a game.

Alabama turnovers lost/gained per game

Year Games Lost/game Gain/game
2022 6 1.5 0.5
2021 15 0.9 1.4
2020 13 0.9 1.7
2019 13 0.8 2.2
2018 15 1.0 1.4
2017 14 0.7 1.7
2016 15 1.3 1.9
2015 15 1.1 1.8
2014 14 1.6 1.4

The four giveaways against Texas A&M and one interception of Aggie Haynes King left the 2022 turnover margin at negative-6. It last finished on the wrong side of zero in 2014 when the SEC title-winning team was negative-2 in the turnover column.

In the seven seasons since, Alabama is plus-96.

That’s 172 takeaways compared to 96 possessions lost.

So the fact Alabama’s losing 1.5 turnovers a game while getting just 0.5 back doesn’t sit well with the guy in charge.

“This is probably one of our down years turnover-wise on defense,” Battle said. “Coach Saban let us know that.”

Saban said they’ve been “emphasizing it like crazy” as Alabama prepares for No. 6 Tennessee at 2:30 p.m. CT Saturday.

“That kind of like resonated with us this week,” Battle said. “We’re going to focus on ripping at the ball when we come and make a tackle. Gang tackle, second guy in come rip at the ball. When they throw the ball down the field, make a play on it. We’re going to get the swats, we’re going to get the PBUs but try to get an interception — tip an overthrow or something like that.”

The Vols (5-0, 2-0 SEC) are No. 18 nationally losing just five turnovers this season — all fumbles. That leaves Tennessee as one of just three teams who have not been intercepted at the midpoint of the regular season. Starting quarterback Hendon Hooker is 98-for-140 for the nation’s 15th-best completion percentage of 70.0%.

The Vol passer was picked off once in last year’s loss at Alabama as the Tide used the subsequent short field for a one last touchdown in a 45-24 final.

“And the players understand it, and they understand the value of turning the ball over relative to the other team,” Saban said. “What the average turnover in a season allows you to score. And when you get a turnover, what that benefits you in scoring. These are very important factors that have been emphasized and we just need to do a better job.”

Texas A&M scored 17 of its 20 points Saturday on possessions following Alabama turnovers, hitting big passing plays on the snap after the takeaway each time.

The Vols have forced 10 turnovers in five games, evenly split between fumbles and interceptions.

Alabama’s turnover margin since 2014

Year Ranking Lost Gained Margin
2022 118 9 3 -6
2021 26 13 21 8
2020 18 12 22 10
2019 3 10 28 18
2018 34 15 21 6
2017 5 10 24 14
2016 17 19 29 10
2015 21 17 27 10
2014 73 22 20 -2