The first round of the College Football Playoff didn’t fully deliver after all four matchups were decided by 10 points or more. Sportsbooks are projecting another blowout when Texas and Arizona State square off at noon CST in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Despite earning a bye following a 45-19 victory in the Big 12 Championship, the Sun Devils are the biggest underdog of the CFP Quarterfinals. The Longhorns are -12.5 and FanDuel gives head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team the best odds to win the national championship. Below are my expert Texas vs. Arizona State predictions and best bets for the Peach Bowl.

Texas vs. Arizona State predictions and best bets

• Texas -12.5: -108 at DraftKings Sportsbook
• Under 51.5: -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Betting on the Sun Devils has been a winning formula this season. Arizona State is an FBS-leading 11-2 against the spread and much of that success stems from an offense that puts up 33 points per game. ASU QB Sam Leavitt and RB Cam Skattebo are an outstanding duo, but have yet to face a defense like Texas’.

The Longhorns only surrender 105 rushing yards per game, and it’ll be a long day for the Sun Devils if Skattebo can’t find room to run. Texas would be happy to force Arizona State to air it out against a defense that ranked second in the FBS against the pass. The Longhorns (41 sacks) are great at pressuring the QB.

Jordyn Tyson’s absence should be a massive blow for the Sun Devils. The sophomore wideout leads Arizona State in every major receiving statistical category, but won’t take the field in the CFP due to a late-season injury. Without Tyson, the Sun Devils have just one WR or TE with more than 300 receiving yards.

Watch for Texas’ defense to roll, leading to a Longhorns’ victory and cover. If Arizona State’s offense is held in check, the under should also cash.

Texas vs. Arizona State moneyline odds analysis

Why Texas could win as the favorite

Best odds: -480 at Caesars Sportsbook

Texas just played at Mercedes-Benz Stadium about a month ago in the SEC Championship. The Longhorns should be plenty familiar with the stadium when they return for the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Texas’ only two losses this season came against Georgia, and the Bulldogs didn’t give QB Quinn Ewers much time in the pocket. UGA racked up 13 total sacks, but that won’t be an issue against Arizona State. Pressuring the QB is a weakness for a Sun Devils’ defense that only has 21 sacks.

Much of the Longhorns’ success in the first round of the CFP was thanks to success at the line of scrimmage. Texas ran 292 yards and four touchdowns, led by RBs Jaydon Blue and Quintrevion Wisner. A repeat performance would all but guarantee a win for Texas, but it may not be as easy against an ASU defense that allows 118 rushing yards per game.

Why Arizona State could win as the underdog

Best odds: +375 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Arizona State is extremely comfortable in the underdog role. The Sun Devils were projected to finish last in the Big 12, but did an excellent job of using the low expectations as fuel.

Beating Texas will be an uphill battle that will require ASU’s superstars to perform. Cam Skattebo needs to show why he was sixth in the FBS in rushing yards, leading to a fifth-place showing in Heisman voting. Skattebo went for 140+ yards and at least one touchdown in six of his last eight games.

Leavitt also had a strong end to the regular season. Over the same stretch, the QB had 21 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Arizona State’s defense may not match up well with Texas, but the unit is known for forcing takeaways. The Sun Devils have 22 turnovers, including a team-high three interceptions from CB Keith Abney II. ASU will need some luck to advance in the CFP, and timely takeaways would be a massive boost.