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The Houston Texans’ reward for an underdog Wild Card win over the Cleveland Browns is a trip to face the AFC’s No. 1 seed the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round on Saturday. Can C.J. Stroud and Co. spring their biggest surprise yet? Here, we preview the game and look at some best bets and prop picks for the clash.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Texans vs. Ravens odds preview

At a +9.5 spread and around +340 on the moneyline, the Texans are the joint-longest shot of Divisional Round weekend, along with the Packers in San Francisco over in the NFC.

But last weekend’s muscle-flexing 45-14 win over the Browns as two-point underdogs put an exclamation mark on what has been a remarkable season for a team that was supposed to be in a rebuilding phase and happy with middling performance after going 3-13 last year. Houston has now won three games in a row and eight of its last 11 dating back to the start of November.

The biggest storyline, of course, has been C.J. Stroud. Overlooked by the first-pick Panthers in the NFL Draft, he is having one of the best rookie seasons a quarterback could possibly hope for. After throwing for more than 4,100 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just five interceptions during the regular season, the question of whether the pressure of his first playoff start would get to the 22-year-old was laughed out of NRG Stadium on Saturday as he threw 274 yards and three touchdowns on 16-of-21 passing.

Now, we get a top-tier quarterback head-to-head showdown as the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner faces off against MVP favorite Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens, as the top seed in the AFC, could put their feet up and watch their potential future opponents slog it out last weekend. They come into the Divisional Round on the back of a rest and as the favorite to win the AFC and punch their Super Bowl ticket after finishing with the league’s best straight-up record (13-4) and regular-season point differential (+203) this year.

One of the strongest teams on both sides of the ball this season, this year, Baltimore became the first team in NFL history to beat 10 teams over .500 in a single season. They’re 8.5-point favorites here, riding home advantage, rest, Jackson’s strong form, and a team that has shown itself to be all-around the best in the conference in 2023. Also, the Texans are going to hate the weather.

Kickoff in Maryland is at 3:30 p.m. CT on ESPN and ABC.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Texans vs. Ravens best bet: Texans +9.5 (-110)

While we’ve already discussed the Ravens’ all-around ability, their postseason record is something different entirely.

In four games with Jaskon as the starting QB, Baltimore has lost three times including twice as a favorite, including a miserable 28-12 divisional-round home upset loss to the Tennessee Titans the last time Baltimore was the AFC’s top seed back in 2019. Given that the Ravens haven’t made it past the divisional round since winning Super Bowl XLVII over a decade ago, all of the pressure will be on them here; think the Cowboys, albeit to a lesser extent.

The Texans won seven of 10 games this season against teams that finished with a winning record and Stroud sailed through his playoff test at the first time of asking last week. The rookie’s numbers and performances are consistently impressive but he excels against teams with winning records, throwing 21 TD passes and only two interceptions in such situations so far. In the likes of Nico Collins, who hit career highs in receiving yards and touchdown catches this year and grabbed six passes for 96 yards and a TD in his postseason debut last week, Stroud has dangerous weaponry.

And all four of the Ravens’ losses in 2023 came against smart defensive coaches, which first-timer DeMeco Ryans is proving himself to be. There’s enough here to think the Texans will hang around within a touchdown’s distance.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Texans vs. Ravens player prop: Stroud under 248.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

But we’re not expecting Stroud to have his best day, for a multitude of reasons. While the rookie has essentially been at his best against good teams, here he’s facing a defense that was No. 1 in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways this year and finished top-six in total defense, interceptions, and passing defense. If there’s a defense more likely to shut down a star rookie, we’d love to see it.

Stroud’s outlook is also very different on the road, where he has a 3-4 record with 231.7 yards per game, six touchdowns, and a 91.5 QB rating versus a 6-2 record, 310.8 yards per game, 17 touchdowns, and a 108.3 QBR in Houston. He’s also struggled mightily in outdoor games, which he hasn’t played many of in recent weeks in the cold weather. He’s thrown just three TDs in five games in which he’s exposed to the elements and his QBR falls to 85.1 in those games.

Stroud starred last week indoors at home, but he hasn’t played outdoors in a month and here he’s against the Ravens’ fearsome defense in cold, gusty wind.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Texans vs. Ravens player prop: Zay Flowers anytime TD (+145 or better)

Zay Flowers didn’t play in the Ravens’ regular-season finale as he’s been nursing a calf injury, so he’ll be thankful for the extended rest his team has had. The wide receiver has been the Ravens’ top WR option all year, and finished with 77 receptions for 858 yards and five TDs as a rookie while averaging 4.8 catches and 53.6 yards per game.

He returned to practice on Tuesday in a limited capacity but should be good to go on Saturday, and his condition could be key for Baltimore. While the Texans’ overall defense is pretty solid, they rank bottom-third aerially, allowing 234.1 passing yards per game. Even with his calf injury, he caught three passes for 106 yards and a TD in a 56-19 Week 17 win over the Dolphins. He may not see a bunch of receptions on Saturday, but he has the talent and the matchup to make the most of them when they come.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Texans vs. Ravens best bets: How to claim your sports betting bonus, best NFL promotions

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