Catena Media provides exclusive sports betting content to AL.com, including picks, analysis, tools and sportsbook offers to help bettors get in on the action. Please wager responsibly.

It all comes down to one game. Win, and you’re in. That’s the scenario facing the Houston Texans and the Indianapolis Colts as the two AFC South rivals do battle in the regular-season finale on Saturday. Victory for either side would seal a playoff place and could even yield the divisional title if the Jacksonville Jaguars lose.

Here, we detail some best bets and prop picks for the game as well as lifting the lid on how to use our range of sportsbook welcome bonuses.

NFL Week 18 Texans vs. Colts odds preview

This game is a playoff game in all but name, virtually assured to be a single-elimination knockout clash as the two teams go head-to-head for one of the final two AFC playoff spots.

Three teams could still win the AFC South title heading into the final day.

If Jacksonville loses to the 5-11 Tennessee Titans on Sunday — unlikely, but not impossible — the victor of this game in Houston would win the division. But with the Jaguars in the driving seat with the tiebreaker advantage over both the Texans and the Colts and the games taking place on different days, Houston and Indy will only have one goal in mind: get that win and secure that postseason berth.

The Texans and the Colts enter the game with identical 9-7 records.

It’s been an incredible turnaround year for Houston after they won just seven games combined over the past two seasons. The fact that the Texans could get to nine wins this season after starting 0-2 is seriously impressive work by new head coach DeMeco Ryans and his staff. The Texans have won nine of their last 14 games, including a huge 26-3 win over the Titans last week in C.J. Stroud’s return, and they are favorites on the road for this one despite being 3-4 outside of Houston this year.

Meanwhile, the Colts have won three of their last five games to keep their playoff chances alive until the final day, beating the Raiders 23-20 in Week 17.

When these two teams met way back in Week 2, the Colts won 31-20 as Anthony Richardson rushed for two early touchdowns and Stroud threw for 384 yards and two passing TDs on the other side. Since then, a lot’s changed, not least that Gardner Minshew has nearly a full season under this belt as the Colts’ QB ahead of Richardson. Meanwhile, the Colts have welcomed Jonathan Taylor back since that first meeting, and he and Zach Moss have formed a fearsome pairing. The battle between Stroud and Minshew and their supporting casts could be a classic.

Kickoff at Indy’s Lucas Oil Stadium is at 7:15 p.m. CT on Saturday night live on ABC and ESPN.

NFL Week 18 Texans vs. Colts best bet: Colts +1.5 (-110 or better)

The Colts opened as single-point underdogs but the line has since shifted in the opposite direction. What that essentially means is that it’s anyone’s guess.

But, if pushed, we’d go for Indy to cover. The Texans have only covered twice in six of the games in which they’ve been favored by 1.5 points or more this season, and have failed to cover in eight of their last 11 (while going 2-8-1 straight up) against Indianapolis. It’s a toss-up, and will likely come down to how well Minshew plays, but the Texans give up a ton of pass yardage. Everyone knows what to expect from the always-impressive Stroud; if Minshew can take care of the ball and find his range, it could be the difference.

NFL Week 18 Texans vs. Colts best bet: Over 47.5 points (-110)

We’re backing this to turn into a bit of a shootout between Stroud and Minshew as each quarterback and their team looks to take the initiative and play on the front foot.

C.J. and Gardner have thrown for 3,844 and 3,164 yards respectively (Minshew’s total is despite him not featuring in the first game-and-a-half of the season) and 21 and 15 touchdowns respectively. Both have ample weaponry to utilize, and neither team has a pass defense that’s anything to write home about. And that’s just the passing game. Each team also boasts at least one top-tier runner by anyone’s standards, with Taylor for the Cotls and Devin Singletary for the Texans. The total’s a tad high, but it’s not hard to envision the over.

NFL Week 18 Texans vs. Colts player prop: Devin Singletary to record over 6.1 rushing yards (-110 at Bet365), to score a touchdown (-115 at DraftKings)

Although Stroud and Minshew are the joint focus, Singletary could be primed for another big day. The dual-threat running back has 835 yards on the ground through 16 games this season, averaging 52.2 yards per game, and has run in for three touchdowns. He’s also totaled 29 receptions on 37 targets for 191 yards.

Those numbers aren’t as good as Taylor’s, who averages 61.4 yards and has six TDs, but there is one key difference between the two star rushers on Saturday and that’s the respective defenses they are facing.

The Texans have the third-best defense in the country against the rush, giving up just 88.5 yards on the ground. In stark contrast, the Colts’ rushing defense is one of their biggest weaknesses. Not many teams give up more yards on the ground than Indy’s 127.8 per game (27th in the league). Singletary hasn’t put up great numbers in the last two weeks, but Saturday’s a golden opportunity for him to break out again.

NFL Week 18 Texans vs. Colts best bets: How to claim your sports betting bonus, best NFL promotions

Taking advantage of one of our sportsbook welcome promos to place your bet on the game couldn’t be easier. All you need to do is follow this handy guide:

• Click one of our promo code links and sign up using our code where applicable.
• Make a first deposit of the qualifying amount through an approved method.
• Place a qualifying first bet on the market of your choice.

Once you’ve signed up and claimed your welcome bonus at your sportsbook(s) of choice, all the top sportsbooks also offer a range of ongoing bonuses, promotions, and perks for members, such as:

• Odds boosts: Receive enhanced odds on select markets.
• Referral bonus: Collect a bonus for each friend who opens a new account and makes a deposit through your exclusive referral link.

Think you know Alabama and Auburn football? Play the AL.com Prop Bet Showdown for a chance to win prizes!

If you or a loved one has questions or needs to talk to a professional about gambling, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1800gambler.net for more information.