With nine teams in the top 23 of this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, the SEC has big games every weekend. It doesn’t get much bigger than Tennessee versus Georgia on Saturday in Athens, Georgia.

No. 7-ranked Tennessee (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) is tied for first place in the conference and can clinch a berth in the SEC title game with wins over No. 12 Georgia and Vanderbilt.

Georgia (7-2 SU, 2-7 ATS) is on the outside looking in at the SEC title game, but the Bulldogs still hope to make CFP’s 12-team field.

Georgia has won seven in a row over the Vols. All of those wins have come by at least 14 points. The Bulldogs are 10-point favorites Saturday in the friendly confines of Sanford Stadium. The over/under is 47.5 to 48.5 points.

Here are our Tennessee vs. Georgia predictions and best bets.

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

CFB Week 12 Tennessee vs. Georgia predictions and best bets

Tennessee has a better record than Georgia and is ranked higher. It doesn’t make sense that Georgia is a double-digit favorite. Often, when a point spread doesn’t make sense, you should go with the side that doesn’t make sense because oddsmakers know more than the public bettor.

With this game, we can’t get there.

The Bulldogs played up to the standard established by head coach Kirby Smart two times this season (Clemson and Texas). Other than that, there have been some lackluster performances. Last week, the Bulldogs were dominated by Ole Miss, 28-10. Their 2-7 ATS record shows that.

The recent history of this rivalry might contribute to the high point spread. During the seven-game winning streak against Tennessee, Georgia has outscored the Vols by an average of 26.4 points per game.

The difference this year is that, unlike the previous six seasons, Georgia is not ranked in the top three. The Vols are the higher-ranked team, and they finally have a coach in Josh Heupel who seems capable of taking the team back to an SEC championship level.

Before Heupel got to Knoxville, Tennessee had lost to Alabama 14 seasons in a row. After last month’s win, the Vols have beaten the Crimson Tide in two of the past three seasons.

This Tennessee team is tough and, unlike previous seasons, can hang in there with its defense. Ten points is way too many for Georgia to lay in this spot.

Monitor the status of Vols QB Nico Iamaleava, who sat out the second half of last week’s win over Mississippi State and began this week in concussion protocol. He practiced with the team early in the week. If Iamaleava doesn’t play, this point spread may get bigger.

No matter who plays QB for Tennessee, running back Dylan Sampson will play a heavy role in the offense. He shrugged off an ankle injury last week against Mississippi State and scored on a 33-yard run late in the third quarter.

Sampson ranks seventh in the nation and first in the SEC with 1,129 rushing yards – an average of 125.4 yards per game. His worst rushing output is 92 yards. He has triple digits in every other game.

In seven games against Power Four opponents, he averages 25 carries per game. He’ll get the rock often Saturday and eclipse his rushing yardage prop.

Carson Beck entered this season as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation, but that narrative has quieted. He had seven touchdown passes and zero interceptions in his first two games. In the seven games since, however, he has 10 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions.

He has three games with no touchdown passes.

Tennessee has one of the best pass defenses in the league. The Vols have given up six passing touchdowns in nine games. The defense will stand tall again Saturday.

Tennessee vs. Georgia moneyline odds analysis

Why Georgia could win as the favorite

Best odds: -375 at BetMGM Sportsbook

Nobody questions how much upside Georgia has. That potential was on full display in the season-opener against Clemson and the second half against Alabama. The Bulldogs shocked the world by crushing then-No. 1 Texas in Austin a few weeks ago.

If Georgia can play to that level against Tennessee, it will win by double digits. That will require Beck to play a rare clean game and for the defense to put the clamps on one of the SEC’s stronger offenses.

Why Tennessee could win as the underdog

Best odds: +310 at Caesars Sportsbook

Tennessee is a proud football program with a track record of success. Much of that was a long time ago, however, as the Vols have not won an SEC title since 1998 and have not played in the conference championship game since 2007.

Fourth-year coach Heupel has the team back on track to reach the promised land and has guided the Vols to the brink of a return to the championship game. If Tennessee beats Georgia this weekend and Vanderbilt in the last week of the regular season, it will be in the game on Championship Saturday.

All of the Xs and Os don’t matter much in this spot. It’s about the big picture. These Tennessee players are playing for something gigantic. They have a coach and a level of toughness that are big enough to overcome the adversity of playing on the road against an opponent that has dominated them for a long time.