Super Bowl 58 passing prop odds, picks: How Brock Purdy could win you bets over Patrick Mahomes
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Super Bowl 58 is almost here. The San Francisco 49ers are set to take on the Kansas City Chiefs from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Sunday, February 11. Kick-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET.
As with any Super Bowl, the quarterback matchup is going to be one to watch. Patrick Mahomes has already played in three Super Bowls, and has a pair of Super Bowl MVP’s to his name. On the other side, San Francisco’s Brock Purdy is making his first Super Bowl appearance. The 49ers will need Purdy to have a big day if they want to take down Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Sports betting platforms offer a wide variety of Super Bowl betting markets, and bettors have hundreds of player props to choose from. Here are some of our favorite Brock Purdy passing props for Super Bowl 58.
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Brock Purdy Over 1.5 passing TDs (-125 or better)
The 49ers were one of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL this season. More specifically, San Francisco scored 28.9 points per game, which was third-most in the league. Brock Purdy was a big reason for that. Only Dak Prescott (36) and Jordan Love (32) threw more touchdown passes in the regular season than Purdy (31).
What makes this bet appealing is Purdy’s extreme efficiency in the red zone. On the season, Purdy completed an impressive 70% of his passes inside the opponent’s 20 yard line. On those throws, he tossed 19 touchdowns compared to just two interceptions.
The Iowa State product has thrown just one touchdown pass in each of San Francisco’s two playoff games thus far. However, he has rarely gone three games in a row without multiple touchdown passes. In fact, as San Francisco’s starting quarterback, he has gone three straight games without 2+ touchdown passes just once.
In what could be a high-scoring affair, we like Purdy’s chances of throwing two or more touchdowns.
Brock Purdy first completion Under 10.5 yards (-122 or better)
This is a bet that will be decided rather quickly.
Brock Purdy is one of the most efficient passers in the league, and a big reason for that is his ability to get the ball in the hands of his receivers quickly.
Players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey all excel at gaining yards after the catch. In turn, Kyle Shanahan likes to stick with short, quick, high-percentage throws to get them the ball.
The 49ers utilize plenty of screens, slants, and pop passes in their offensive playbook. In Purdy’s first Super Bowl appearance, don’t be surprised if Shanahan dials up one of these plays to start the game.
It would be somewhat surprising to see Shanahan dial up a deep ball for Purdy’s first Super Bowl completion. We are taking the Under here.
Christian McCaffrey Over 33.5 receiving yards (-130 or better)
Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey have developed a strong chemistry in San Francisco. This season, they connected 67 times for 564 yards and seven touchdowns. As perhaps the most dynamic running back in the league, McCaffrey figures to be heavily involved in San Francisco’s Super Bowl game plan.
McCaffrey was fourth on the 49ers with 83 targets during the regular season. However, in two playoff games thus far, he leads the team with 17 targets. He has hauled in 11 of those passes for 72 yards.
Not only does Shanahan like to dial up passing plays to McCaffrey, but Purdy rarely holds onto the ball in the pocket. Instead, he loves to check it down to McCaffrey out of the backfield. That could create even more opportunities for McCaffrey in the passing game.
The volume should be there, so we like McCaffrey to go over his receiving yards prop total. Along those lines, it is also worth exploring McCaffrey Over 4.5 receptions as well.