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The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in an AFC Wild Card playoff matchup. Kickoff from Highmark Stadium is set for noon CT on CBS.

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Steelers vs. Bills Wild Card playoff odds preview

Pittsburgh (10-7) closed the regular season with a three-game win streak to earn the AFC’s seventh and final playoff berth.

Coach Mike Tomlin’s Steelers ranked 28th in scoring (17.9 points per game) and sixth in scoring defense (19.1).

The Steelers have found a spark of late behind backup QB Mason Rudolph but will be without their top defender in edge rusher T.J. Watt, who suffered a knee injury in the team’s Week 18 regular-season finale.

Buffalo (11-6), meanwhile, charges into the postseason as the league’s hottest team after winning its last five games to claim its fourth-straight AFC East title and the conference’s No. 2 seed.

Behind QB Josh Allen’s league-most 44 total TDs, including 15 rushing, the Bills ranked sixth in scoring with an average of 26.5 points per game. Defensively, Buffalo has dealt with myriad injuries but ranked fourth with an average of 18.3 points permitted per game.

The Bills are the largest favorite of Super Wild Card Weekend, laying a consensus -9.5 points (-475 moneyline). But with cold, windy, and possibly snowy conditions in the Sunday forecast for Orchard Park, N.Y., the game total was sitting at a weekend-low 34.5 points as of Friday.

Steelers vs. Bills Wild Card playoff best bet: Game total under 34.5 points (-115 or better)

It’s not the cold or precipitation but the wind that wreaks the most havoc with football game totals.

And with two above-average defenses, one sub-par scoring offense, and sustained 25-mph-plus winds forecasted to be in the mix for Sunday, we’ll go with the under in this one in what figures to be a run-heavy contest.

It would be just another Sunday afternoon for these two teams in any case with the Steelers and Bills both finishing 11-6 to the under during the regular season.

Steelers vs. Bills Wild Card playoff top player prop: Josh Allen over 38.5 rushing yards (-110 or better)

In 2023, Allen finished with his third-lowest rushing-yardage total (524) in his six pro seasons.

The Bills’ dynamic QB, though, does tend to run and scramble more with the stakes higher in the postseason, averaging 52.1 ground yards over his eight playoff games compared to his regular season average of 38.4.

And with the wind likely to rein in both teams’ passing attempts and success Sunday, Allen figures to put his legs to good use.

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