Social Security COLA: Hereâs what the average Social Security payment will be this fall

We’re a little more than a month away from knowing how Social Security payments will change next year.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, the index that determines COLA, uses data from July, August, and September to determine next year’s increase. Barring any unforeseen delays, the COLA announcement is expected to be released mid-October.

COLA is determined by averaging inflation for the third quarter of the year, and then comparing it to the same period average from one year ago. The percentage difference between the two is the amount of the COLA, which will be payable for the check received in January 2024.

Current estimates put the 2024 COLA at around 3%. That would raise the average monthly benefit of $1,789 by $53.70. It’s a steep decline from last year’s COLA when inflation pushed it to a four-decade high of 8.7%.

Monthly averages fluctuate based on amounts received by new beneficiaries. According to GoBankingRates.com and Social Security Administration data, the average retirement payments during the first seven months of 2023 were:

January 2023: $1,779
February 2023: $1,781
March 2023: $1,833
April 2023: $1,834
May 2023: $1,787
June 2023: $1,788
July 2023: $1,790

The average payment for fall 2023 won’t be known until the statistical snapshots are released for September, October or November. Based on the trend, however, GoBankingRate estimates the fall average to be in the neighborhood of $1,780 to $1,800 a month.

Those are the averages, of course, and as the analysis points out, individual payments could be much higher or lower based on career earnings and when the person claims Social Security benefits.

According to the Social Security Association, the maximum Social Security retirement check in 2023 is $4,555 a month. The lowest special minimum benefit is $49.40.