The No. 11 seed SMU Mustangs travel to Beaver Stadium this weekend to take on the No. 6 seed Penn State Nittany Lions in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Both teams finished the year 11-2 and received an at-large bid into the field.

The winner of this game will go on to face the Boise State Broncos in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Day. Oddsmakers favor Penn State ahead of kickoff as 8.5 to 9-point favorites, depending on the sportsbook. The over/under for the game can be found from 52.5 to 53.5.

Editor’s note: Check out our expert guide to College Football Playoff betting.

SMU vs. Penn State predictions and best bets

• Penn State -8.5: -110 at DraftKings
• SMU Under 21.5 Total Points: -125 at Caesars
• Tyler Warren Over 6.5 Receptions: -108 at FanDuel

SMU struggled to produce against Clemson down 24-7 at halftime of the ACC Championship. That same slow start cannot happen against a team as efficient as Penn State. While the Mustangs were able to battle back two weeks ago, their 60th-ranked strength of schedule tells me this team isn’t prepared to go toe-to-toe with a team like Penn State.

The Nittany Lions average the 11th-most first downs among teams in the Power Four and average less than a turnover per game. That’s a great formula for controlling the football, sustaining drives, and running down the clock once they’ve pulled far enough ahead.

The Mustangs played just one defense that ranked in the top 40 scoring defenses. That was BYU, who they only scored 15 points against. They’re in for a rude awakening against the eighth-ranked scoring defense. I expect SMU to be held under 21.5 points.

Tyler Warren is the superstar of this Nittany Lions offense, which has leaned heavily on him in recent games. The tight end has nabbed seven or more catches in six of his last eight games and is a clear focal point of the offense in big matchups.

SMU must put a safety or linebacker on Warren, but the size matchups are unfair. The Mustangs’ top-ten defenders who take coverage snaps are all 6’1” or shorter. That will be difficult to match against the 6’6”, 261-pound beast barreling down the middle of the field.

NOTE: Player props are only allowed in CT, IL, IN (pre game), IA, KS, MI, NJ, NH, NC, RI, WY, and Washington DC.

SMU vs. Penn State moneyline analysis

Why Penn State could win as the favorite

Best odds: -320 at FanDuel

The Nittany Lions have been highly regarded all season and will be the SMU Mustangs’ toughest opponent yet. SMU’s best victory this season came against an 8-4 Louisville team that ranks 25th on ESPN’s strength of resume model. Penn State ranks fifth in that measure, which bodes well for their chances.

Warren is the centerpiece of the offense. The star tight end just won the John Mackey Award, given to the top player at the position in college football.

The senior is bound to be a key piece of the game plan, whether on the ground or through the air. After the Mustangs just allowed two touchdowns to Clemson’s Jake Briningstool last week, watch for Warren to find paydirt this Saturday.

Penn State continues their dominance on the defensive side, the team averages 2.5 sacks per game, which ranks 33rd in the country.

However, both of SMU’s starting offensive tackles have allowed 15 or more pressures this season, so look for the dynamic duo of Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton to capitalize. They’ll be at the advantage by keeping Kevin Jennings in the pocket and not allowing him to extend the play as a passer.

The Nittany Lions’ only home loss this season was against Ohio State as the underdog. We’ll see if they can continue to win as the favorite to advance to the Fiesta Bowl.

Why SMU could win as the underdog

Best odds: +275 at BetMGM

SMU will be tested more than they have all season. However, this team has overcome expectations every step of the way this season.

Brashard Smith is a key piece of the offense, as he totaled over 1,500 all-purpose yards on the season and 18 total touchdowns to help the Mustangs rank sixth in the FBS in scoring. With the intense Penn State pass rush, his versatility will be pivotal against Penn State to keep the Nittany Lions’ defense off balance.

The Mustangs’ impressive play extends to the defense as well. They allow the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game and are tied for the seventh-fewest rushing touchdowns allowed. Forcing Drew Allar to beat this team as a passer is SMU’s best chance at winning.

While Allar is one of the better quarterback prospects in college football, he is still very green as a passer. SMU ranks top 10 in sacks and its secondary ranks in the top 20 in interceptions. They’ll look to rattle the junior and potentially flip the game in their favor. It won’t be easy in a harsh environment like Beaver Stadium, but the Mustangs are 5-0 on the road this season.