This is an opinion column

In the 2024 Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump looks inevitable, Ron DeSantis is awkward, and Nikki Haley will likely be reminding Republicans in November that she could have won. With only a few weeks to go before the first primary votes are cast, we need to move past nuance and start addressing political reality.

Let’s start with the good news for Republicans. President Joe Biden is an eminently beatable candidate. At the same point in their respective administrations, Trump’s favorability was four points higher than Biden, Obama was roughly a half a point higher than that, and Bush was more than 13 percentage points higher.

The Biden administration has devolved into listless mush. Inflation remains a regular concern for average American families from the grocery aisles to the homes they can’t afford. Biden is engaging in two foreign wars. His unequivocal rhetorical regularly clashes with missional objectives as clear as swamp water. To make matters worse, nobody believes Biden has functional control of America’s southern border at a time when America’s enemies are legion.

If that weren’t enough, Biden’s resilience and capacity are reasonably in question.

In head-to-head matchups versus the president, each of the top three Republican candidates have credible polling which puts them ahead. DeSantis currently fares the worst versus Biden, Trump is a few points better, and Haley beats Biden by as much as double digits.

Now for the bad news.

Trump is a primary juggernaut with all the presidential inevitability of Hillary Clinton. Hear me out on this one. Like him or not, Trump is clearly the most exciting and interesting candidate in the entire presidential field. As much as I can articulate the conservative electoral case for choosing Haley or DeSantis, Trump voters are materially more motivated to head to the polls.

According to a Monmouth University/Washington Post poll in New Hampshire from November, “Trump voters (78%) are much more likely than other candidates’ supporters (51%) to say they are extremely motivated to vote in the primary.” New Hampshire is interesting because it’s closer to a microcosm of the national election than a red state like Alabama or Tennessee. While 60% of New Hampshire voters would be fine with Trump or Haley as the eventual GOP nominee, Trump more than doubled Haley’s level of voter enthusiasm.

Trump has managed to turn himself into an idea rather than an individual.

Republican voters see supporting Trump as the biggest thumb in the eye to the political left that they can muster. That’s why it really doesn’t matter what he says or does. Watching the primary, the GOP’s demand for Trump simply isn’t responsive to…anything.

Voting for Trump is telling all the people explaining why you shouldn’t vote for Trump to pound sand. A vote for Trump is opposition to the Ivy League presidents who lack morally clarity about antisemitism. Backing Trump is rejecting weird sex books for kids in your local library. Standing with the former president means opposing masks and mandated COVID-19 vaccines.

Some of you are just dying to explain why none of Trump’s electoral symbolism actually connects with reality. Voting for Trump is also a way of telling you to shut up and keep your pointy headed political thoughts to yourself.

Nevertheless, the criminal charges against Trump are potentially explosive to his campaign between the primary and general election. Even against the unpopular Biden, Trump still loses the general election if he’s convicted. It makes sense. Voters who realize that a prosecutor can secure an indictment with relative ease also understand that a guilty verdict from a jury carries far more weight. More importantly, there isn’t a backup option for Republican voters after the primaries.

Right now, Trump’s criminal conviction is Biden’s one consistent path to victory.

The most rational path for Republicans that nobody is really excited about is to consolidate around Haley and cruise to victory in the general election. No symbolism. No flash. She’s a conventional, competent conservative.

That strategy runs through Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Haley must be the highest performing alternative to Trump and convince the field that she alone can challenge the MAGA monster. Unfortunately, that also happens to be DeSantis’s plan. If neither of them folds in short order, Trump will be the Republican nominee without question.

Narrowing the field to Trump and one alternative is only half the battle. The remaining candidate must secure the entirety of the current non-Trump vote without surrendering even a few points to the former president. The odds of that happening are vanishingly small.

To borrow from Stanley Kubrick’s 1964 hit Dr. Strangelove, Republicans have decided to stop worrying and love the bomb. Absent some major unforeseen events, Trump will be the nominee. The GOP’s hope is that he doesn’t explode between now and election day in 2024.

More Cameron Smith columns:

Smith is a recovering political attorney with four boys, two dogs, a bearded dragon, and an extremely patient wife. He’s a partner in a media company, a business strategy wonk, and a regular on talk radio. Please direct outrage or agreement to [email protected] or @DCameronSmith on X or @davidcameronsmith on Threads.