In January of 2022, a three-judge federal court halted Alabama’s redistricting efforts upon finding that plaintiffs would likely succeed in proving a Voting Rights Act (VRA) violation. In response, Alabama asked the United States Supreme Court to radically reshape the contours of VRA jurisprudence. On June 8 in Allen v. Milligan, the court declined to do so. Now, Alabama legislators must initiate the most radical political shift in generations. Democrats should pause celebrations until they understand what the opinion really means.

Alabama Republicans want to maintain a political advantage, and Democrats want more sway. Political power is the animating force behind redistricting every decade or so. The difficult part for map makers is that voters change over time. Yesterday’s Democrat is today’s Republican. When drawing electoral maps, legislative majorities look for patterns that allow them to predictably know how the votes will fall.

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In recent American politics, one trend stands out beyond the rest.

Black Americans voted roughly 90% Democrat in the past few presidential elections. They’re one of the most politically cohesive voting blocs in the nation, and both political parties know it. Unlike race, partisan affiliation is not a protected voting class.

In Alabama, Black voters make up a little more than a quarter of the voting-age population. With those numbers, it’s easy to draw districts racially proportional to the overall voting population of the state that virtually ensure that the political preferences of Black voters never prevail. For 115 years after Reconstruction, that was the case with Alabama’s congressional delegation.

In 1992, VRA litigation resulted in Birmingham lawyer Earl Hilliard becoming the first Black Representative from Alabama since 1877. Since then, Alabama Republicans have drawn a substantial number of Black voters into that single district which all but guarantees Democratic representation.

By packing the one district with high-likelihood Democratic voters, Alabama’s remaining congressional districts are safely Republican.

The VRA was written to tackle America’s history of suppressing Black voters. The main challenge for the law is that math doesn’t care about race or politics. In order to give a racial minority a voting majority, the state must create maps which intentionally concentrate a certain race in some districts while diluting the same racial representation in others.

Terri Sewell currently represents the 7th Congressional District which is 61% Black. It has enjoyed Black representation since its current formulation. Republicans are not remotely competitive for the seat. The plaintiff-proposed maps in the recent VRA litigation craft two districts which range from 50% to 54% Black voting-age population.

In short, the 7th will become more white, and the 2nd Congressional District will likely become more Black by pulling in the urban heart of Mobile. Alabama’s Gulf Coast won’t have a cohesive district. Rep. Jerry Carl will get to know constituents much farther inland. Much to the chagrin of Alabama Democrats, there aren’t enough Black voters to create two majority-Black congressional districts as politically safe as the current 7th district.

Rather than whining about the map changes, Republicans should aggressively compete for both of them. National Democrats are far out of step with socially conservative Black voters. Right now in Alabama, white progressives pushing intersectionality aren’t getting along with Black Democratic leaders vying for control of the party.

It’s a wedge Republicans should enthusiastically engage with quality Black candidates in the new districts legislative majorities strategically build.

Yes, that means Rep. Barry Moore is probably a redistricting casualty if Republicans hope to retain the 2nd District. The sooner Republicans accept that, the more competitive they’ll be. Recruiting and financially backing a credible challenger to Sewell is wise, but the incumbent’s political savvy and occasional willingness to vote against national Democrats make her difficult to unseat.

Alabama hasn’t seen a truly competitive general election race for Congress in years. The Supreme Court’s ruling is sound, and it gives Black voters more of a voice. Alabama’s GOP must take stock and build for the future or increasingly surrender ground to Democrats. In truth, Republicans around the nation should do the same.

Smith is a recovering political attorney with three boys, two dogs, a bearded dragon, and an extremely patient wife. He’s a partner in a media company, a business strategy wonk, and a regular on talk radio. Please direct outrage or agreement to [email protected] or @DCameronSmith on Twitter.