Severe weather in Alabama today: Where and when will storms hit?
A variety of severe weather scenarios are possible late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a potential for strong storms in parts of Alabama, the Alabama Emergency Management Agency said.
According to Jim Stefkovich, meteorologist with Alabama EMA, the strength of the storms will be determined by both the amount and where atmospheric instability exists.
“This is a very strong storm system that contains high winds aloft and wind shear to promote rotating storms,” he said.
READ MORE: Level 3 risk for severe weather for part of Alabama starting Tuesday
The most likely scenario, Stefkovich said, is the highest instability will occur south of a Highway 80 – I-85 line or south of a Livingston – Montgomery – Auburn line. In this region, supercell development, both as individual cells ahead of and within a line of storms, are expected to develop. Straight-line damaging winds, hail and tornadoes will all be possible, including EF2 or greater in intensity, especially in the area of Enhanced risk in the far southwest part of the state.
Because the storm system is so strong, Stefkovich said, even though little instability will occur between Highway 80 – I-85 and I-20, widespread straight-line wind gusts of 40-50 mph with a few possibly reaching 60 mph will occur. The tornado threat will be low in the area, however.
Strong non-thunderstorm winds will develop across the state late Tuesday afternoon or evening ahead of the storms and continue through the night. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph will occur.
Though less likely, instability could move farther north than Highway 80-I-85. If this were to occur, more widespread severe weather would be possible and extend farther northward. On the other hand, if the instability is not able to develop as far inland, the severe weather threat would be contained mainly to areas near the Alabama/Florida state line.
READ MORE: Enhanced risk for severe weather tonight in part of Alabama
Timing of the storms
The northern part of the state will see thunderstorms under the Marginal Risk level. The central part of the state – including places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Auburn south to Dothan – are in the Marginal Risk zone with storms starting in the west at 11 p.m. and lasting until 3 a.m. Storms will move through the central part of the state will begin around 1 a.m. and last until 5 a.m. Wednesday before exiting the state around 9 a.m. Wednesday.
The Slight Risk area, places like Greenville, will see storm from 2 a.m.-7 a.m. Wednesday. The greatest area of concern – Enhanced Risk – includes Mobile and Baldwin counties. Those storms could start around 11 p.m. Tuesday and lasting until after 7 a.m. Wednesday.