The New Orleans Saints travel to MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Giants this weekend. The two NFC squads are looking for a morale booster on what has been a disappointing 2024 campaign.

Sportsbooks favor the Saints ahead of kickoff as New Orleans is 4.5-point favorites across all major sportsbooks. The over/under for the game is 41 to 41.5 depending on platform. Let’s get into my expert Saints vs. Giants predictions and best bets for NFL Week 14.

Saints vs. Giants predictions and best bets

• Malik Nabers 1st Drive Catch – Yes: -120 at DraftKings
• Drew Lock Over 213.5 Passing + Rushing Yards: -115 at DraftKings
• New Orleans Saints 1st Drive – No Offensive Score: -180 at Caesars

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

After the rookie receiver voiced his frustrations with not getting the football, Malik Nabers was targeted on all three of Drew Lock’s first drive passes. Nabers is questionable with a hip injury, so monitor his status. If he plays, the game plan will still be to get him involved. Expect a first drive pass to go his way, and count on Nabers to catch it.

Drew Lock put together some impressive scrambles last week, tallying 57 rushing yards against the Cowboys. While he likely doesn’t rush for that amount again, he still should scamper on a few plays based on his preseason performances and spot starts in Seattle last season.

With a low line and the chance New York is forced into passing situations, this is great value to work with. New Orleans’ pass defense allows the fourth-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. We could see Lock outperform this line through the air alone, but getting some rushing insurance to pair with it makes it even better.

The New Orleans Saints have not scored a first-drive touchdown since September, failing to find pay dirt to open a game in eight straight games. In those games, the team only scored once against the Carolina Panthers, when they had an opening-drive field goal.

Against a Giants team with one of the best pass rush units in the league, I expect the early offensive struggles to continue for New Orleans. As a result, this should be a good wager to place ahead of kickoff.

Saints vs. Giants moneyline odds analysis

Why Saints could win as the favorite

Best odds: -205 at DraftKings

As good as the Giants’ pass rush has been, the run defense has been lackluster. Luckily for the New Orleans Saints, they have no issues turning to Alvin Kamara as the offense’s focal point. The veteran back has had 20 or more touches in each of the last four games, and that trend likely continues on Sunday.

Injuries to players such as Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Taysom Hill have derailed this offense, but Kamara has been the one constant they can depend on week to week. If they hope to win in Week 14, they’ll need the 29-year-old to continue churning.

On defense, the Saints get a solid draw. The Giants’ offense has had similar struggles, currently ranked last in the NFL for points per game. Still, the New Orleans secondary will need to play better to keep Drew Lock from finding his spark.

This one will likely be a sloppy game, so whichever team can avoid mistakes should win. The Giants’ -8 turnover differential on the season favors the Saints’ going on the road and taking home a victory.

Why Giants could win as the underdog

Best odds: +190 at FanDuel

With Drew Lock announced as the starting quarterback, things seemed to be turning around for New York after a first-drive touchdown against Dallas. However, things quickly devolved back to normal, as the Cowboys outscored them 24-3 in the second and third quarters.

The Giants’ offense has struggled to find a rhythm this season. Despite impactful play from skill players such as Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Malik Nabers, the offense can’t find consistency on the field.

With Daniel Jones officially gone, the team hopes that if they are to win a game this season, someone else will step up under center and guide the team to victory. They’ll hope that’s Drew Lock in his second start with the team.

The defense will be responsible for beating New Orleans, but they’ll be without DT Dexter Lawrence (dislocated elbow). The Giants have the most sacks in the NFL, but that was with Lawrence. They’ll need to make Derek Carr uncomfortable without him to win this game. If the front seven can generate pressure, mistakes will follow.

It’s unlikely that the offense will ever provide a high-scoring performance, but if the defense can limit New Orleans, Drew Lock and the rest of the unit can squeeze out a victory. Don’t count out the G-men.