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Both fresh off bye weeks, the 4-6 Atlanta Falcons welcome their fierce rivals the New Orleans Saints (5-5) on Sunday knowing that the winner of this one will lead the NFC South. It is a pivotal game, and we’ve outlined some best bets and prop picks below.

NFL Week 12 Saints vs. Falcons odds preview

The NFC South is still up for grabs and first place in the division two-thirds of the way through the season is the prize here. The Saints are a game ahead of the Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading into the week’s action.

For both teams, you could argue the rest week came at a good time.

New Orleans needed it with Derek Carr still in concussion protocol after taking a hit in their Week 10 loss to the Vikings. With the Saints’ offense having started to click into gear in recent weeks, having a recharged and healthy squad — notwithstanding the loss of Michael Thomas to Injured Reserve this week — could give them a much-needed edge as they head into the home stretch.

Atlanta, meanwhile, gets a break from losing close games. The Falcons have taken three Ls in a row, losing by five points, then three points, then two points. But sophomore Desmond Ridder will be back at quarterback for this one and Falcons fans will hope he can reignite the offense to get Atlanta back into the playoff picture.

New Orleans snatched a late victory in Atlanta last season and has won four straight against the Falcons — six straight at Mercedes-Benz Stadium — but the Falcons are 3-3 at home and will hope a raucous home crowd helps get them over the line and back in the wins.

Kickoff is at noon CT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. In a coin-toss game, the Falcons are the slimmest of slim favorites at the time of writing, at -110 on the moneyline against the Saints’ +100.

NFL Week 12 Saints vs. Falcons best bet: Over 42 points (-112 or better)

Many onlookers are likely expecting a relatively low-scoring affair here. It’s hit in seven of the Saints’ 10 games and six times in 10 Falcons games, after all. But there are reasons to believe otherwise.

The Falcons have Ridder back, the quarterback for whom they designed all their plays leading up to this season. That will likely free up their offense and add to their box of tricks, which could help them get around a Saints defense which is sturdy against the pass. Meanwhile, while there is uncertainty over New Orleans’ own QB situation, Sunday’s visitors have a bunch of talent waiting for a breakout game, even sans Thomas. With each team having had a bye week to prepare their offensive arsenals, this could be a decent bet to go against the over/under grain.

NFL Week 12 Saints vs. Falcons player prop: Tyler Allgeier to score a touchdown (+170)

In an evenly-matched game of such fine margins, the biggest mismatch may be the Falcons’ 7th-ranked rushing offense against the Saints’ 20th-ranked rush defense.

With Ridder in place under center, Tyler Allgeier can continue to be a key weapon. While much of the early-season focus was on Atlanta’s rookie runner Bijan Robinson, Allgeier has been quietly effective, hitting the rushing yards over in 11 of his last 13 games. During his last five games, the 23-year-old has carried the ball 63 times for 211 yards. With a home crowd behind him and a long prep period, he could have a profitable day.

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